I love UNI in this spot. You're right, they got absolutely crushed at Indiana State 70-45. Worst loss of the year for UNI. More of an admiration than anything in my opinion. I'm pretty sure UNI hasn't forgot about that beatdown either. ISU is suspect on the road combined with UNI's Senior night/Revenge factor has me all over UNI tonight. Also, will break the 3rd place tie breaker in the conference standings as both teams are 10-6. Look for UNI to bounce back in a big way tonight.
Unfortunately, without Lucas O'Rear (broken ankle, 2/2/11), UNI is not as strong as it was on January 7 at Indiana State. UNI won 8 in a row before O'Rear's injury; they have won 1 out of 5 since. They've really been hurting on defense without the big Irishman. Notice the points they have been giving up since February 2 (over 70 every game). UNI still has some players, and they are generally pretty good at home, but I don't see them covering this. I think Indiana State is the play.
(I was writing this when nocoincidences posted. Hate to be opposite him in this game. But that's the way I see it.)
Actually 1-4 (W @ Bradley) but I get your point @ No Coin. They've definitely been on a slide since he went down. I still think everything points to a UNI cover tonight. I'd be surprised if it wasn't UNI by 10+. Feel better that you're on board as well.