2/23 RECAP
Well, last night was one of those nights where you get bitch-slapped to remind you of the things that you should or shouldn't be doing. I honestly made two errors last night that were rookie mistakes (and after 20+ years of doing this I should know better)...and sure enough they came back to haunt me.
My first mistake was in letting my personal perceptions cloud the system's recommendation on Sacramento vs. Orlando. Sacramento +14 should have been a play - see the note in post #51 - it fit into the parameters of the system. But because it was the Kings, I decided to pass on the game. And not only does Sacramento get the win, but they do it outright 111-105 in Orlando. That was a "win" that should have been added to the final tally.
The second mistake was that I should have bought the extra 1/2 point on a few occasions, but didn't. In the Houston-Cleveland game, a 1/2 point would have been a push rather than a loss. Why didn't I buy it? Because it was Cleveland. Again, personal perception. In the Georgia State-William & Mary game, buying the extra 1/2 point would have been a push instead of a loss as G-State falls 69-65. And most importantly, I should have bought the extra 1/2 point in the New Mexico State-San Jose State game, if for no other reason than I recommended it as a 2-unit play. Final score? SJ State 72-70.
Now don't get me wrong, I don't recommend buying 1/2 points on every single game. But usually when the spread is between 1.5 and 3.5 and I see key indicators that suggest it might be close according to my calculations as well, I like to give myself that little cushion. The bottom line...those simple errors would have turned 3 losses into pushes (saving a combined 4 units that were lost) as well as added another win at 1 unit. That's
HUGE. And that's my bad.
Anyway, like I said...every now and again you need to be reminded of the basics. Overall it wasn't a devastating night, but to me any night with no profit or a loss of profit is considered unsuccessful. I'll do what I always do...review the numbers and see where things went wrong, so the same mistakes don't happen again. And tonight we'll get back to winning.
UNLV +3..............................2 UNITS.............WIN +2.00
New Mexico State +1.5.........2 UNITS.............LOSS -2.14
Miami FL +3.........................1 UNIT..............WIN +1.00
Evansville +3.......................1 UNIT..............LOSS -1.00
Georgia State +3.5...............1 UNIT..............LOSS -1.01
Central Michigan +3...............1 UNIT.............WIN +1.00
Houston -5.5..................................... .....1 UNIT.............LOSS -1.13
Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5.5 goals................1 UNIT...........LOSS -1.47
OVERALL:
NCAABB: 19-11 (63%) +12.16 units
NBA: 1-5 (17%) -4.40 units
NHL: 4-5 (44%) -1.37 units