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Is playing Kansas State too sharp?
Of course my initial reaction was putting a large sum of $ on Kansas after seeing the line @ KU -3.5...it is no secret pretty much all the #'s/stats favor KU in this match-up. It seems K.State has been in a must win situation in every game in the past 2 weeks, but this time I actually believe it. I'm not sure how K.State is going get it done but I think they find a way to win. Gonna see where the line ends up but for me it's either K.State or a no play.
I've been fading the public recently, but I just can't do it this time. I've seen each team play several times, Kansas St. keeping it close would be a shocker. I can understand not playing it due to the fishy line, but putting money on Kansas St. +3.5 is tough to do given the matchup. Sure KU is without Selby and Robinson but they have depth and KSU just isn't very good this year. GL with whatever you decide.
I kind of look at it this way, KState has them at home and if they want to win this game, they have to play their kind of game. I'm not thrilled of only 4 points, was hoping for 6 so I'm going to look at the total, if I'm comfortable where it is at, I'm playing the under with the belief K State will clamp down on the defensive end and force Kansas to play their kind of game. Also its a rivalry to the intensity should be high and both teams should be up on the d end IMO.
I agree KU should dominate this match-up, but I also have to acknowledge the fact that the lines makers know more then I will ever know. With such a small CBB card tomorrow I think that no matter what the line is set at it is set with the intent for K.State to cover. gl to you to rofa
i like kansas 1st half
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had to get you off "666" pointsOriginally Posted by spredzgeek
...no evil in this thread
K- St is horrible
The line is low, b/c its a revenge game. Though the first meeting was not competitive.
I took Kansas -4. I dont think a lot into picks like this. When you start having to do 30+ minutes of handicapping individual games, then you are forcing a pick.
Look at Pinny, Headstrong.
Interesting.
I saw that, think the toughest decision I will have is the points or the ML. I fear playing the line (anything -5.5 or less) and if they do get destroyed it will hurt twice as bad, as apposed to taking the ML (hoping for at least 2 to 1 return by game time) that way they get hammered and I'd only being on the hook for half the price. But if the line gets into the 6-6.5 range I may consider buying 2 up to 8-8.5 and coming in with a heavier play, really still a lot of variables as to which route imma take.
Without Robinson and with a banged up Selby, its tough to say but Kansas was only -10 at home earlier this year...... they should only be -2 or so on the road in theory. K State has played better basketball since then (1-2 ATS but both were very close calls) and Kanas is 4-0 and has looked very good but 2 were at home and 2 were against less than elite competition. Kansas is playing very good basketball lately and the lines have been high and they've still managed to cover. I like the under in this game to be honest, especially the 1H under. Last game went way over because K State tried to get back into the game in the second half after being down so much and the sped up the pace (they attempted 68 shots)
long time no see TPowell, congrats on the show and I hope all is well.
Has anybody in this thread watched K-St. play this year?
WTF does line movement have to do with how shitty K St. has played. They are worse than last years team.
Yeah, K-State is not good.
Weird shit can happen in Manhattan, though. I'm pretty sure they've only lost once there this year....
They have beaten a crappy Baylor team, which was a game that set basketball at least 40 years back.
Nebraska(They lost to Texas Tech on the road also), and Texas Tech(Just plain shitty)
I have seen K.State play several times this year and yes I have been less then impressed. But the number usually tells the story and this is one number I having problems ignoring. I believe in the lines makers, they may make mistakes but not very many.
Its the same line as last year, only a .5 point higher.
tough to bet against Kansas State because they rebound very well, at least offensively but I'm not sure they can do it well enough against a solid team like Kansas
K-State's going to have to drag this one into the gutter and grind it out if they want a snowball's chance in hell.
They can do it, though.
K.State was also 11-5 in the Big 12 last year, this year K.State has a 4-6 record in the Big 12 but only a .5 point higher?
last year the OT game was when they abused KU on the glass. If Kansas wins on the glass, this game gets UGLY. If Kansas hangs decently close on the boards, they win by 5-6 I think.
Stop living up to your handle man. Re-read the dark part and listen to yourself. Your practically forcing the play, not a wise move. Maybe i am wrong, but i know that in the long term i would lose alot of money with this style/level of handicapping...GL regardless and hope u get a good #. Wouldnt be surprised if it were around 6.5 by tip-off....
I like KU tomorrow. Even with injuries, they have multiple players scoring double digits. They're averaging 80+, even on the road. Only giving up an average 65 points on defense a game. Whats not to like about a line set that low. Even in a revenge game on the road. Unfortunately, my book doesn't post lines until 6 or 7 am PST, so i have a feeling that -3.5 is a pipe dream. I see at other books that the line has gone up as much as -6.....heavy public money on KU
Home court is huge n college baskets..HUGE. St John's beating and killing Duke, and Rutgers winning at home. I really don't believe the trap game stuff....Texam A and M vs Texas..Marquette home and favored vs was it Notre Dame or Uconn...anyways I like Kansas
Definitely an interesting line. I took K State +6. Possiblybut we shall see.
Guys don't take Kansas State. This has nothing to do with traps, bookmaker knowledge, line movement. Kansas is leaps and bounds better than KState. Don't waste your money trying to beat the public or play sharp here.
This is not debatable, either go Kansas or stay away if you really moving the game a few miles to the same place this team and its coach has been year in and year out makes a difference.
Wasn't K-State a top ranked in the top 10 or maybe even the top 5 in November?
I agree. Kansas would have to lay a pretty big egg to lose this one. K State hasn't been able to make a lay up all year and they're about the sloppiest team i've ever seen.
Frankly, JMU Player, the pollsters know even less about the game than cappers do. If there was reverse line movement the trap game proponents might have a case, but the line climbed 2.5 points in like 10 hours.
Todays date: Feb 14, 2011. If you want to blow your money you can easily send it this way. Or at least buy a stripper, come on man I'd hope you knew something about CBB before thinking this play has any value at all. If you really really dont like Kansas just stay away, for -110 there are far better plays then a team that got beat badly already, and lost two of its 3 big men and now meet again no better a team.
You are gonna eat your own ass
Put you last twelve points on it coach.
No thank u
Then shut the **** up.
Pathetic.
I haven't seen this many people on one team since yesterday(Miami and Lakers).
With that being said I am not touching this game but I will tell you, don't discount the absence of Robinson and a banged up Selby. K State will be playing for their tournament resume tonight.
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head_strong gave spredzgeek 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
