1. 02-08-11 11:23 PM #1
    warriorfan707
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    I'm taking a very long look at Hofstra -1 for tomorrow

    This line looks off to me. Hofstra is a much superior team and they usually maul Georgia St. I am not calling this the LOD yet but my initial thought is they win by 6.

    Will look into this and update this thread.
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  2. 02-09-11 01:05 AM #2
    No coincidences
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    I saw this as well.

    There are lights all over this one -- but not for taking Hofstra IMHO.
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  3. 02-09-11 05:02 AM #3
    ThingsFallApart
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    I saw this as well.

    There are lights all over this one -- but not for taking Hofstra IMHO.

    I agree, its too obvious to take Hofstra here. With such a perceived superior squad why is it only 1? For me its until youre convinced Hofstra is going to win - stay away.
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  4. 02-09-11 05:21 AM #4
    YorkHunt
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  5. 02-09-11 06:57 AM #5
    Justin7
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    I like Ga State myself, and would play them as low as -2.5.
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  6. 02-09-11 06:59 AM #6
    goblinburner
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    im taking hofstra to good to be true but ill risk it
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  7. 02-09-11 09:57 AM #7
    No coincidences
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    After taking a closer look and weighing early public bets, this could be the biggest trap line I've seen in weeks.

    This is Georgia State or no play, folks.
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  8. 02-09-11 10:59 AM #8
    SilverTongueFox
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    Why? It smells of KU v Nebraska; OSU v Minn; Pitt v WVU. The line so slow that it seemed to good to be true and public heavy on the favorite. All the touts seemd to jump all over Neb, Minn and WVU. We all know the outcome of these games. Line error if you ask me!
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  9. 02-09-11 11:27 AM #9
    LockPickMaster
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    Its PK now, which side to take?
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  10. 02-09-11 12:00 PM #10
    dwang0725
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    I really like Hofstra tonight. Think they take it in a pick em game.
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  11. 02-09-11 12:56 PM #11
    linedrivr
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    Some recent stats from sbr matchup sheet

    Georgia State is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
    Georgia State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    Georgia State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Hofstra

    Hofstra is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
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  12. 02-09-11 01:04 PM #12
    warriorfan707
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    After taking a closer look and weighing early public bets, this could be the biggest trap line I've seen in weeks.

    This is Georgia State or no play, folks.
    You are still claiming this BS I see ey?

    You are the most paranoid poster I have ever seen. If they lose, it wasn't because of a "trap".

    And just for the record I am still undecided on this game.
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  13. 02-09-11 01:06 PM #13
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    You are still claiming this BS I see ey?

    You are the most paranoid poster I have ever seen. If they lose, it wasn't because of a "trap".

    And just for the record I am still undecided on this game.
    Name one reason Georgia State should be a Pick or just +1 in this game (actually, they're now -1).

    One.

    The books are begging you to take Hofstra.
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  14. 02-09-11 01:09 PM #14
    warriorfan707
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Name one reason Georgia State should be a Pick or just +1 in this game (actually, they're now -1).

    One.

    The books are begging you to take Hofstra.
    Please explain to me what makes the books so sure that GS is going to win.
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  15. 02-09-11 01:10 PM #15
    LockPickMaster
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    Still PK on Bookmaker
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  16. 02-09-11 01:10 PM #16
    Glitch
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    i was betting them a lot in the beginning of the year (and winning) BUT...then i watched a game of them against JMU and hofstra was severely undersized. one player brought them back in the game with some lights-out shooting.

    didnt GA state beat vcu that night when stanford played va tech in a bowl game...
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  17. 02-09-11 01:11 PM #17
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    Please explain to me what makes the books so sure that GS is going to win.
    The line says it all, and if it didn't, the RLM confirms it.

    Your initial post is exactly what books want you to think -- that you're getting a bargain with Hofstra at -1 (now +1). Again, give me one good reason why Hofstra shouldn't be -3 or 4 here.
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  18. 02-09-11 01:15 PM #18
    warriorfan707
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    The line says it all, and if it didn't, the RLM confirms it.

    Your initial post is exactly what books want you to think -- that you're getting a bargain with Hofstra at -1 (now +1). Again, give me one good reason why Hofstra shouldn't be -3 or 4 here.
    But according to your reasoning every time the line is off, the other team is necessarily the play.

    This is simply not the case.
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  19. 02-09-11 01:26 PM #19
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    But according to your reasoning every time the line is off, the other team is necessarily the play.

    This is simply not the case.
    Not true at all. We're talking about this particular game.

    Again, give me one good reason why Georgia State is -1 here instead of +4, and I'll consider Hofstra.
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  20. 02-09-11 01:34 PM #20
    Dukebluejms
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    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post

    But according to your reasoning every time the line is off, the other team is necessarily the play.

    This is simply not the case.
    I would like to see the numbers on this, because I'd be willing to bet that if you were to play the obvious side every so called "trap" you'd be down for the season. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule, and the 3 games you bring up were examples. But what about the numerous other situations like this?? I don't know the exact numbers, but will look into it.

    No Coin makes a very valid point. The books are looking for action on Hofstra. If you only look at stats and trends, then Hofstra is 5 to 6 points better than Ga. St. This is not to say it is a lock that GaSt will win, but judging by the line one would think it is very likely.
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  21. 02-09-11 01:37 PM #21
    warriorfan707
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    I understand the reasoning I am just still trying to decide the correct side.
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  22. 02-09-11 01:40 PM #22
    JMUplayer
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    With Ga State's overall record they aren't even playing for the NIT...... (gotta be .500 or better)

    I always look at that angle when looking at the CAA/MAC/WAC games late in the year...
    with that being said you can make money on CAA games if you follow it closely. It is a really good conference, this game is going to be close one way or another.
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  23. 02-09-11 01:41 PM #23
    dotheopposite
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    I agree with No Coincidences about this line. Looking at it logically ur money should go to Hofstra as a "pickum" currently. But the line moved in that direction from the open at Hofstra -1. Books want u to take Hof. Hofstra is the overall better team at home . They don't do as well on the road. Not going to say Hofstra is going to lose..IF I HAD to bet it I would take Hofstra. But best to stay away. A lot more attractive games out there 2nite IMO. But hey..u got a 50/50 shot at winning..its y we call it gambling!
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  24. 02-09-11 01:47 PM #24
    warriorfan707
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    I did come up with a lock for today. Check the Lock of the Day thread. That one is free money.
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  25. 02-09-11 01:52 PM #25
    warriorfan707
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    Georgia St is a better defensive team and are at home, thats why the line is what it is.
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  26. 02-09-11 02:13 PM #26
    firehoyt
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    Wheres youre "lock" for today warrior?!?!? I cant find it anywhere.....
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  27. 02-09-11 02:18 PM #27
    warriorfan707
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    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...-lock-day.html
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  28. 02-09-11 02:24 PM #28
    AbeFroman
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    An interesting bit from Georgia State's website. Tonight is a Blue-Out and they are giving all kinds of free stuff away. Would appear to give an already pretty decent home team a bit more rabid student section tonight.
    http://www.georgiastatesports.com/Vi...clid=205092071
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  29. 02-09-11 02:33 PM #29
    raggman
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    good luck with your hofstra pick--road game concerns me
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  30. 02-09-11 05:11 PM #30
    carmeloso80
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    You better take a deeper and longer look!

    I'm just saying
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  31. 02-09-11 05:57 PM #31
    warriorfan707
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    Hofstra wins, watch
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  32. 02-09-11 06:03 PM #32
    warriorfan707
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    Free money, rip this one Im telling you
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  33. 02-09-11 06:13 PM #33
    warriorfan707
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    No coincidenes, seriously dude... I don't think your reverse line nonsense has ever been accurate ONE DAMN TIME
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  34. 02-09-11 06:14 PM #34
    Dukebluejms
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    Not on either side, but you are counting your chickens mighty early...
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  35. 02-09-11 06:16 PM #35
    warriorfan707
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    I have proved this guy wrong time and time again and HE NEVER LEARNS
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