[GemSportsPicks]

The trick to winning at this game is being able to distinguish the difference between two types of games.

1 A line error- this is game where the line is off, such as Kansas at nebreska the other night Kansas -5 should have been -8 or -9. THis is a line error.

2. A trap- what was once a big secret everyone now knows about, traps are all the rage and have become very trendy picks these days.. Decent example of a trap was Niagra and marist the other day... the line should have been 4.5 to 5. but somehow it was 7, here it looks like line error but infact it isn't because there is certain pieces of info, unbeknowinlgst to the public.

I have certain things I look at to help distinguish the difference, its still a work in progress of course, anyone that has tried to evaluate games on these basis, I would appreciate if you PM me and we can trade info.

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

Gem in regards to number 1, sometimes these lines are not off, they are traps... Like tonight Cleveland State @ Detroit is an absolute perfect example. Cleve State can score quickly and efficiently..they got great shooters and the line here clearly is off.. Let's see how it holds up tonight

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

Same thing with Siena @ Loyola.. Line is at -4 but the stats favor Siena in this matchup, also add to the fact Siena went to Loyola MD's homecourt earlier this season and BLEW THEM OUT!!! If they won by 18 I believe in the first matchup, how can they lose this matchup on their homecourt?

[GemSportsPicks]

No see math, your missing the point, in both cases line error and trap, the line is off, the key is to identify which is the trap, and which is the line error... In both examples one side will look like an easy winner, but as you know there are usually two very different outcomes

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

No see math, your missing the point, in both cases line error and trap, the line is off, the key is to identify which is the trap, and which is the line error... In both examples one side will look like an easy winner, but as you know there are usually two very different outcomes

Okay I see what you are saying now, but Siena -4 clearly has to be a line error, not a trap.. Everything favors them to win by double digits or slightly less.. Siena blew Loyola out by like 18 points on Loyola MD's homecourt earlier in the season, so how could they either lose this game outright or win but not cover this game correct? Loyola blows

[GemSportsPicks]

Your kind of getting it, I don't want to post to many of my techniques in the thread, but your getting it a little, it is very hard to identify Line error to trap before the game, thats why I would like to trade techiques with some others that probably have different and maybe even better views and angles then I.

Sienna is only -4 seems very low, correct? For me to give you a little of what I look into, is I try to justify the low line, looking at Injuries home away record how teams play in back to backs and about a million other things, if I cannot justify the line being off I come to conclusion that it is a trap and that the oddsmakers know something about the game that I do not... Then it becomes play against the public, I haven't looked at this game yet, I will for you though... I'm really trying to become better at taking the public plays that win... I hit one the other night with Kansas but I'm still not great at picking them, when it comes to picking a trap I'm pretty spot on.

Another capper on here that is good at identifying traps is Dozer

[saints7011]

if you're playing Siena tonight , you should really look into all the angles...

[16johnnymac]

Siena is the play today!!

[saints7011]

Siena is the play today!!

GL to you...

[Romanov]

You guys see enemies where you want to see them

[zephyr]

Of course, you have to factor in: which direction is the line moving?

[Lets go out]

Loy MD is the play

[esulima]

The trick to winning at this game is being able to distinguish the difference between two types of games.

1 A line error- this is game where the line is off, such as Kansas at nebreska the other night Kansas -5 should have been -8 or -9. THis is a line error.

2. A trap- what was once a big secret everyone now knows about, traps are all the rage and have become very trendy picks these days.. Decent example of a trap was Niagra and marist the other day... the line should have been 4.5 to 5. but somehow it was 7, here it looks like line error but infact it isn't because there is certain pieces of info, unbeknowinlgst to the public.

I have certain things I look at to help distinguish the difference, its still a work in progress of course, anyone that has tried to evaluate games on these basis, I would appreciate if you PM me and we can trade info.

pitt and iona traps or errors then?????

[saints7011]

Loy MD is the play

[GemSportsPicks]

Through what i look at in the angles, I have Pitt at trap, slight trap, its not perfect trap because of Gibbs injury which justifies the line being off somewhat

[clc49]

Does the over under of 136.5 seem a little high for the Siena game to anyone else?

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

Line for Siena opened up at -4.5, went down to -4 overnight and then back up to -4.5 thru all of today.. As of right now, I'm not sure where the line is at, I havent checked but I bet it at -4.5 when it first came out.. Siena isn't the best team, they'v lost to some pretty shitty fukkin teams but I like homecourt tonight. I believe Siena wins, just starting maybe to become a little hesitant on the 4.5 cover.

[GemSportsPicks]

YEa math for me, that line wouldn't even have made it past my first evaluation for being line error or trap cause I had it at 5.... so i don't feel the line is off... Yes siena has name recogniton but if you take a look at the records this year, you will see siena isn't the team they usually are.... Its a leave alone game for me.

[BernardMadoff]

Okay I see what you are saying now, but Siena -4 clearly has to be a line error, not a trap.. Everything favors them to win by double digits or slightly less.. Siena blew Loyola out by like 18 points on Loyola MD's homecourt earlier in the season, so how could they either lose this game outright or win but not cover this game correct? Loyola blows

Not sure why you see -4 as being an error, its not, basically these two teams are even, if anything Id go with Loyola in this spot. They only lost to Rider by one on the road and beat Iona and have been hot before the Siena loss. Best thing to do is find out why Siena beat them by 17 a couple weeks ago. Not playing but if I did Id probably play Loyola, they had 19 more possessions in the game against Siena, still lost but its because they were chucking 3's after being down midway thru the first half. IMO the game was won at the line with Siena shooting 16 more and making 14 more free throws than Loyola.

[tylerguy02]

[bgragert]

Perfect example of 1.

[sweethook]

i see what you saying