1. #1
    stevenash
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    Could we knock it off with the 'line stinks, fishy line, wise guy talk' already

    I'm talking about tonights Fairfield / Iona game. Fairfield - 2.5
    Same applies to the College of Charleston / Wofford game last night.
    Duke / Maryland, the list is endless.


    Let's look at the Fairfield game that just ended.
    Bottom line Fairfield won and covered, don't care if Iona cut the 14 point lead to 4, the bottom line is the bottom line.

    If you 'capped the game the first thing that popped out is Fairfield at 10-1 are the beasts of the Metro Atlantic. 17-4 overall.
    If not for that heartbreak loss to Loyola two weeks ago, Stags would be riding a 17 game winning streak going into tonights game instead of 16 out of their last 17.
    Fairfield was at home, with the best point guard in the league, Needham.
    Fairfield has a beast in the middle with Olander.

    Iona is OK, but a notch below Fairfield overall.
    7-4 in league play, 13-9 overall,coming off three crappy losses in a row.

    I read two dozen different posts on how Iona is the play 'because the line stinks'

    So, if the line was -7 instead of -2.5 Fairfield would have been the play, but at -2.5 it's not?
    Makes no sense to me.

    Point I'm trying to make is don't over think the bet.
    'Cap the game, if you think your side is the winner, at a number less then what you think it should be, why wouldn't you bet it?

    I said the same thing 2 hours before tip, so it's not like I'm post padding or anything, and I hope I'm not coming off holier than thou, believe me I'm not, I've posted a few God awful clunkers in my day, and I hope I'm not coming across as telling people how to 'cap, there are dozens much better here at this then me.

    Point is, how many times have you talked yourself out of the right side, switched to the wrong side, just because 'the line stinks, it's fishy, somebody knows something?'

    College of Charlston was -3 last night over Wofford.
    College of Charleston is like 8 better than Wofford.

    Woffard must be the play because the line is off.
    Bottom line, Charleston flat out rolled them.
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  2. #2
    BigDofBA
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    Good post.

  3. #3
    P25
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    Well put. I had CofC last night, and Fairfield tonight.

  4. #4
    stevenash
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    Thank you for the kind words.
    It's just I don't believe in traps, but if another 'capper does, I will never ridicule, everybody has their own style.

  5. #5
    Power Play
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    I think there are traps but it doesn't happen as much as many guys think. Spotting those traps obviously needs experience and is in general an imperfect science. Nash is right though you don't want to overthink your handicapping because in the long run it hurts more than help imo.
    Last edited by Power Play; 02-04-11 at 10:30 PM.

  6. #6
    CollegeOverUnder
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    this thread needs to stay active because this is right I member last week I read one with Missouri

  7. #7
    romoney
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    i have fell for "traps" in the past and i believe there are some, however it is college BBall and anything can happen any day/night...sometimes it is what it is...

  8. #8
    BigDofBA
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    I think people label games traps because they don't put much thought into them and just glance at a line and think, oh that's easy money. Instead of doing this, people should ask themselves why the line is the way it is.

    There is a reason why you always see people post "lock" threads or "easy money" threads and they lose the majority of the time. These people aren't handicapping the game themselves they are just betting what appears easy.

    Here are some examples from the past few weeks.

    Illinois/Indiana - Indiana was only a slight dog and won outright
    Memphis/Orlando - Memphis was only a slight dog and won outright.
    Mizzou/Ok. State - OSU was only a slight dog and won outright.

    If Indiana is one of the worst teams in the Big 10 and they are only slight dogs, there are reasons. I had Indiana in that game for several reasons. Indiana plays Illinois well at home. Illinois was coming off a heartbreaking loss to Ohio State. Ect.

    If Memphis is +2 at home against Orlando you should probably look into it more than assuming Orlando is going to win easily because Orlando has been good in recent years.

    Oklahoma State was only +2 to a top 15 team even though Okie State had a 2-4 record in conference. Light bulbs should be going off if you are on Mizzou.

    I don't think these are traps unless you're the average person just looking at team names. Here is a word of advice, if you think Illinois is going to kill Indiana and they are only a 3 point favorite, you probably shouldn't bet the farm on it.

  9. #9
    romoney
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    ha .......my luck....... with Iona/Fairfield...Iona would have made that 3 at the last second

  10. #10
    Power Play
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    There are situational "traps" in baskeball: Fatigue spots (3 in 4 nights in NBA), coming off long road trips (NBA), situational look-aheads (both), let down after key wins (both), referee assignments (NBA), looking better/worse than they actually are; especially on national tv (both), underestimating home court(college especially big 12, certain NBA teams). However they're mostly handicappable situations that must be taken into account while handicapping. The longer you handicap the more generally accurate at gauging those spots a person becomes. Good luck!!!!!!

  11. #11
    Dukebluejms
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    I see where you are coming from and appreciate the constructive criticism, but its not like if you took Fairfield you won by a comfortable margin. If I see a line like this one, and this was a "fishy line", it is a no play for me. Taking the other side based on an off line doesn't make sense, but not playing it does.

  12. #12
    dozer
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    congrats. my loss is your gain.

    i dont even look at the teams playing when i bet. i just look at the number and movement. i find out what teams i am taking after i see what lines/movement i like. sounds weird, but has worked miracles.

    injuries, fatique, home/road, top 10 vs shitty, etc means nothing to me.

  13. #13
    agharah1
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    I'm sure traps exist, but I'd bet they're more likely on the road than at home. The simple fact is that the average better is not consistently profitable and therefore must be faded. Logically, it follows that avoiding popular picks would improve your odds of being profitable.

  14. #14
    Blazermaniac
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    Boys....gambling is a mind game....psychology warfair. Vegas is not just an entity. They have research facilities...statictians...matheticians. ...you name it they got it. In short....if you got your mind set on one thing...it ain't going to happen (psychology). How do we beat 'em???? Simple.....boycot 'em.

  15. #15
    AL1322
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    100% agree with nash

  16. #16
    dozer
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    for the three examples you gave of games..... i will give you 25 the other way. im just sayin.

    you do your thing

  17. #17
    infinite wisdom
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    this is an important topic.
    incorporating contrarian thinking into your college basketball handicapping is a must.
    while only a few trap lines may exist on a given card, it critical to avoid playing the obvious side and seriously consider playing opposite. especially if the line moves toward the percieved worse team, you have to ask yourself who is taking the worst of it enough to move the line that direction. this is, without a doubt, sharp action and usually indicative of a winning play.

    those with years of experience in this business would have to agree..
    betting the obvious is a long term loser,
    betting harder to take plays is a long term winner.

    the biggest problem for the average bettor lies in stepping up and actually laying real money in these tough situations.

    exactly what represents a line that is "out of whack" is open to interpretation,
    but here are some recent examples that i would offer.
    personally, im a dog player, thus most are plays on dogs.

    Feb 4 : columbia (12-6) -2 @ BROWN (7-11)
    Feb 3 : portland st (11-10) @ CS SACRAMENTO (5-16) pk
    Feb 2 : vcu (18-5) -5 @ NORTHEASTERN (7-15)
    Feb 2 : ohio (10-11) -2 @ CENTRAL MICH (5-15), cmi (0-10) L10 ATS at time
    Feb 2 : massachusetts (13-7) @ ST LOUIS (7-13) open -3.5 bet to -5, play on favorite stl
    Jan 29 : byu (20-1) -3 bet down to -2 @ NEW MEXICO (14-7)
    Jan 27 : furman (15-5) -2 @ western carolina (8-12)
    Jan 27 : north texas (16-4) -4 bet down to -3 @ UL LAFAYETTE (5-14)

    i contend that one would be hard pressed to find sample sizes of games in similar situations that dont produce net wins over time.

    here are a few games from saturdays card for you to watch.

    connecticut (17-4) @ SETON HALL (10-13) +2.5
    samford (11-12) @ GEORGIA SOUTHERN (4-20) pk
    eastern kentucky (12-11) @ JACKSONVILLE ST (4-19) +1.5
    umass (13-8) @ ST JOSEPHS (5-17) -1.5

  18. #18
    dynamite140
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    No Coincidences is the person who does this everyday at the nba and ncaab forum. Everything to him is a TRAP and he all does is bet line movement yet he DENIES IT

  19. #19
    thfootball
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    **************************************** *******************
    Feb 4 : columbia (12-6) -2 @ BROWN (7-11)
    Feb 3 : portland st (11-10) @ CS SACRAMENTO (5-16) pk
    Feb 2 : vcu (18-5) -5 @ NORTHEASTERN (7-15)
    Feb 2 : ohio (10-11) -2 @ CENTRAL MICH (5-15), cmi (0-10) L10 ATS at time
    Feb 2 : massachusetts (13-7) @ ST LOUIS (7-13) open -3.5 bet to -5, play on favorite stl
    Jan 29 : byu (20-1) -3 bet down to -2 @ NEW MEXICO (14-7)
    Jan 27 : furman (15-5) -2 @ western carolina (8-12)
    Jan 27 : north texas (16-4) -4 bet down to -3 @ UL LAFAYETTE (5-14)

    i contend that one would be hard pressed to find sample sizes of games in similar situations that dont produce net wins over time.

    here are a few games from saturdays card for you to watch.

    connecticut (17-4) @ SETON HALL (10-13) +2.5
    samford (11-12) @ GEORGIA SOUTHERN (4-20) pk
    eastern kentucky (12-11) @ JACKSONVILLE ST (4-19) +1.5
    umass (13-8) @ ST JOSEPHS (5-17) -1.5
    **************************************** ******************************

    One wants "home favorites" not road favorites, like Fairfield on Friday. Of course it's never a lock, it's more of a hope.

  20. #20
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by dozer View Post
    for the three examples you gave of games..... i will give you 25 the other way. im just sayin.

    you do your thing
    So you are saying that for every one game where the betting line seems to be off 4 points or so that covers, there are 8 that don't?

    Using your 25:3 ratio you cited.

    I really don't think it's that high.

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