[babaoriley]

I posted this on another forum, but figured some folks could use a little bit of insight into this:

I think it's time to face the fact that this Michigan State team was severely overrated out of the gate this year.

When you go over the roster and see Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, Draymond Green & to a lesser extent Delvon Roe & Korey Lucious (expected to make somewhat of a leap this year) and throw in Izzo's brand of coaching, the masses expected more than this team is apparently capable of. Then you look at the numbers of those four:

Summers- Career lows (4 years) in Assists per game (despite most min. per game of career), FG% (43%), FT% (65%)---He shot 46%/80% last year...
Lucas- nitpicking here, but despite playing fewer minutes than the past two years, has lowest assist/turnover ratio due to his lowest AST/game & highest TO/game ratios of career.
Green- stats are up (as they should be with increased PT; but shooting %'s are troubling (56% as a FR, 53% as SOPH, 46% as JR) FT shooting down to 63% from 67% last year
Roe- On a per/minute basis---lowest PTS, REB, AST of career. After shooting 55% or better in each of his first two seasons, shooting 50% this season.
Lucious- Before suspension 2 games ago---just becoming an abysmal shooter. FG % over the past 3 seasons? 38% FR, 34% SOPH, 31% JR... 3-pt shooting? 35% FR, 32% SOPH, 28% JR

To boil that down, MSU's 5 key players are collectively having the worst shooting season of their career, by a mile...

Now, to be honest, I thought they should manhandle Indiana as well, but this team just doesn't have that ability to put away opponents. Take a look at their schedule.

Non-Conference: Lost to Uconn by 3 at neutral site, Duke by 5 on the road, 'Cuse by 14 at neutral site and Texas by 12 at home. Only key non-conf win was against Washington at neutral site by 5. Struggled to put away Chaminade (by 8), Oakland (by 1)...

Big X play: Lost to Penn State, Illinois, Purdue on the road, losing by 4, 9 & 10 respectively. Lost to Michigan at home by 4. Squeaked by NW & Wisky at home in OT, @NW by 3 and beat Minnesota by 9 at home.

That's it. That's their resume. Haven't beat a conference opponent by more than 4, with the exception of beating Minn by 9. Couldn't take care of business against ranked non-conference foes. Just an overhyped, aggressively ranked, disappointing team that is now losing to a fairly atrocious Indiana team in a must-win game at home. Still 7 minutes to go and with any luck, they cover, but this isn't a team capable of turning it on and blowing inferior teams out. With the personnel they have they certainly should have that on/off switch but at this point, it's safe to say they don't.

Hope someone gets something out of this.

[5ammy]

Well they have the same team as last year more or less, so the expectations weren't exactly TOO high. They're just a huge disappointment this year given the talent they have this year. However - Vegas is still showing them love for some reason (-10.5 against Indiana = gift). It will be interesting to see the upcoming Iowa line. Now seems like a great time to fade MSU ATS.

[Kustac]

I enjoyed it and if Texas in your pic there is your team, man they're playing some ball right now

[nanozane]

I enjoyed it and if Texas in your pic there is your team, man they're playing some ball right now

agreed.

[survive]

loss of Allen and Morgan are looking big now

[HoulihansTX]

I don't know how much of a problem their offense is, but their defense is atrocious.

Indy, and all of their other opponents basically score every other possession.

Michigan has relegated themselves to being a run & gun style team. They have to outscore every team, but lack the talent to do that.


They are just having a bad year. Izzo hasn't forgotten how to coach either. Just didn't see it coming though.


Though with Izzo's coaching ability, they could mess around and win the conference tourny.

[No coincidences]

I don't know how much of a problem their offense is, but their defense is atrocious.

Indy, and all of their other opponents basically score every other possession.

Michigan has relegated themselves to being a run & gun style team. They have to outscore every team, but lack the talent to do that.


They are just having a bad year. Izzo hasn't forgotten how to coach either. Just didn't see it coming though.


Though with Izzo's coaching ability, they could mess around and win the conference tourny.

Appling and Payne are struggling, and Nix and Sherman haven't gotten much better. Combined with the fact that Summers has been MIA and they sorely miss Allen and Morgan's rebounding and defense, and their struggles are really no surprise. Well, not quite -- I didn't think they'd be quite this bad, but their No. 2 preseason ranking was a joke. Championship teams rebound and play D -- this Spartan team does neither.

[Donkwin47]

Just a joke they've been. Biggest disappointment of the year by far.

[CollegeOverUnder]

lol I cant wait to see the NCAA bracket and see how many of you guys fade and how many of you bet MSU. Because ill still back them come tourney time

[Glitch]

sad because izzo is such a great coach

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Syracuse also big dissapointment

[LockPickMaster]

Izzo will have long term damage if he doesn't bring in a JUCO big. All his bigs are bone fide busts. Nix, should not be playing for a team like MSU and why Izzo offered is beyond me. Sherman, doesn't even play anymore. Payne, remains to be seen but it may be another year or two before he can contribute. MSU is in deep trouble without any force in the middle.

[survive]

Izzo will have long term damage if he doesn't bring in a JUCO big. All his bigs are bone fide busts. Nix, should not be playing for a team like MSU and why Izzo offered is beyond me. Sherman, doesn't even play anymore. Payne, remains to be seen but it may be another year or two before he can contribute. MSU is in deep trouble without any force in the middle.

i agree 100%. Roe has been a disappointment too. Come tourney time, i wouldn't underestimate Izzo

[agharah1]

Roe is pretty much relegated to defense and rebounding. Nix actually kept MSU in the game for a while in the 2nd half. MSU was supposed to be a deep team this year but then they lost Allen and Lucious, Payne isn't ready for prime time, and Byrd and Gauna redshirted. Kalin Lucas isn't 100% still after tearing his achillies last year. If this team makes the tournament (I think they still can as long as they sweep Iowa) then I think they have a chance of getting past some of the more disappointing teams out there.

[babaoriley]

Well, interesting to revisit this thread in the wake of Wednesday's 20-point loss @ Iowa. In 2011 (9 games), MSU is 4-5 & 0-9 ATS I believe. 3 Wins have come in OT and all 4 of their wins have been by a combined 11 points. They shot 34% against Iowa (22% from downtown) and allowed Iowa to score at will, as the Hawkeyes shot 58% from the field (33% from downtown).

Pomeroy has MSU currently sitting at #45... Looking ahead, they have a tough 6 game stretch, with road games against Wisky (#8 in Pomeroy), Ohio St. (#1), and Minnesota (#43) balanced by home games against Penn St. (52), Illinois (15) & Purdue (9).

I'm sure there will be some folks that see them as undervalued during this stretch, while many keep fading away.

[No coincidences]

They can't beat anybody right now.

Lucas and Summers seemed to have checked out, and Izzo looks/acts/talks like he's thrown in the towel.

[HoulihansTX]

1st bad season in 10 years.

Izzo gets a pass for the next 5 years for all I'm concerned.

[No coincidences]

1st bad season in 10 years.

Izzo gets a pass for the next 5 years for all I'm concerned.

Actually, they haven't missed the tourney since '97.