Earlier this season Mick Cronin talked about how teams struggle so much to win on the road in the Big East, particularly early in the conference season. Then, as the season progresses, teams begin to figure it out and the numbers aren't quite so lopsided in favor of home teams.
It appears the worm is turning in the conference.
After the top 10 teams in the league opened the year 29-2 on their home court, over the last four days there have been five wins by road teams against the top 10. Those numbers include three in a row after Tuesday night's surprising scores. Seton Hall dropped 90 points in the Dome to beat Syracuse and UConn only got 14 points from Kemba Walker but won at Marquette. (Sidenote: UConn's Jeremy Lamb -- 24 points last night -- becoming a player is the scariest thought for Big East teams right now)
Teams are figuring it out.
This should raise an eyebrow with a Rutgers team coming to Fifth Third playing with a ton of confidence and coming off a road win of their own at Seton Hall.
The last midweek sandwich game between hostile contests was USF. UC won that one, but it was hardly a display of effort and beauty.
The Bearcats should win tonight. They will be favored. They have more talent. But Rutgers has all the ability in the world to pull off the upset if the Bearcats snooze. I'm not predicting defeat in the least, I'm only saying this game is much more dangerous than anyone thought it would be even a few weeks ago.
The No. 1 improvment Cronin and the fan base would like to see is from the offense. The numbers over the past five games are concerning. UC topped 61 points only once (scoring 74 vs. USF). Granted, the competition has been the most difficult of the season in that stretch, but the Cats need to learn how to create open looks against defenses geared to take them out of what they want to do. Just running the offense won't cut it anymore. People know what UC wants to do and are planning accordingly. (See St. John's ball pressure in the passing lanes leading to 17 turnovers) Cronin believes his team needs to start creating more open shots for teammates by attacking off the dribble.
"Offensively, we have to improve and improve in a hurry," Cronin said. "You get away with certain things against lesser competition. You got to prepare to beat the best team on your schedule. Some of that stuff you don't figure out until you play a great team on the road like a Villanova or a Syracuse or Notre Dame."
I agree. I think UC will win at home. However, they are a terrible shooting team and are having a tough time with Big East teams this year. I think the play is the points and RU.
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