[jonblaze2424]

It seems as the season gets deeper, these conference games are getting crazy when it comes to betting. Usually i do my homework on some of these games, look into all sorts of numbers, and now it seems like all you can do is just flip a coin. I feel like I am having more success with the mid-majors betting on teams that don't have as much to play for. Either that or im just getting real unlucky. Does anyone else feel the same?

[agharah1]

A lot of these games are just plain flukes. While its been true for a long time that getting Syracuse into a jump shooting contest is the key to beating them, nobody thought that Seton Hall, *the* worst shooting team in the Big East would be able to do the deed. Certainly not by 20+ points @ Syracuse. Notre Dame was one of the worst road teams in college basketball over the last 3 years, and their coach Mike Brey is known for being a poor defensive coach. Yet there they were, fresh off a 20+ pt loss @ Saint Johns, holding KenPom's #1 offense in the nation in Pitt to 23 second half points and winning going a way using basically the exact same play for Ben Hansbrough over and over and over again.

It even extended into the mid-major ranks. Virginia Commonwealth is the top team in the CAA yet they held on by the skin of their teeth against a Towson team that was winless in conference play yet were playing perfect basketball. Missouri State almost lost to Drake tonight, too.

It is entirely possible that once the season gets into the grind month of February that things will regress to the mean and more heavy favorites will at the very least be able to win straight up at home. Then again college basketball is just so incredibly down this year I don't know what to say. The NBA seems to have been more consistent this year but that's only if the teams actually try. You always have to be on the lookout for when teams take games off.

I for one am thinking I should shy away from taking so many heavy favorites straight up anymore. If I don't think they'll win easily I'll try taking the underdog and the points instead, better risk-reward ratio.

[jonblaze2424]

That's how i've felt....and funny thing was I had big money on both Pitt and VCU monday night, I thought getting VCU at -11 against an AWFUL Towson St team was a lock. It's just been soooo inconsistant this year, and it amazes me how good some of these people are doing. I went 9-3 last week, and im already a terrible 2-7 this week. I'm starting to think that if your realllly not sure about teams in conferences such as the big east, ACC, and SEC covering 9 point spreads and higher.....your best bet is too probably take the underdog. You have alot more to work with. But, i said the same thing with Purdue tonight, and got workedd. I dont know, im just rambling, maybbe its just a bad start to the week thats making me question how much i really know about this game and these teams.