[Snowball]

After I cap a line, then compare it to the CBS computer model
(which I do not believe takes Home Court Advantage into account)
then compare it to the Vegas line, and look for differentials to exploit,
I arrive at my choices.

It's documented that the Home Court advantage is 4 points in CBB.

But an oft problem with my capping and those of us who do this
with similar approaches is that the Home Court advantage is sometimes
far greater than that.. as much as 8+. Last night is an example where
I lost with two road bets. What happens is that in the reasoning process,
the lines for superior teams on the road appear to be valuable, yet
it's often a false allure.
I already did my work today on initial games. You know what I arrived
at ? 4 Road teams.
Ohio pk @ Bowling Green, St. John's +7.5 @ Louisville, Rhode Island -2
@ St. Joseph's, and Ball St. -3.5 @ Eastern Michigan.
Yet, what does information and stats, and everything we can use good
for if it does not account for the Home Court advantage ?
The lines look tasty, and include HC advantage in them, but there is
always more than a few home teams which rise to the occasion much
greater than could possibly be expected.
At times, I've considered limiting my capping to only taking Home Teams.
Of course not indiscriminately, but after they are carefully hand selected.

comments and serious discussion

[TPowell]

For my model, I use 4 points for home court and turn out pretty close results when it comes to betting dogs/faves.

[Snowball]

i'm really starting to believe that 4 points is not enough.

[dchecks]

What is the web site for "CBS computer model"??

[Snowball]

What is the web site for "CBS computer model"??

I only use it to check against. I never base decisions on it.. but
after I am done, I compare to it and compare to the game line..

so I weigh 3 lines.. mine, cbs, and vegas. they have this page pretty well
hidden from the casual browser.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...ves/selections

[dchecks]

I only use it to check against. I never base decisions on it.. but
after I am done, I compare to it and compare to the game line..

so I weigh 3 lines.. mine, cbs, and vegas. they have this page pretty well
hidden from the casual browser.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...ves/selections

Thanks for the info!!

[TPowell]

seems way off on a lot of games. OK State by 14 over Iowa State? Has me going 5-4 though

[slimpickins]

Ohio, Ball State and URI were the 3 games that at first stood out to me as well, but as you mentioned all 3 are road teams so I need to revisit before placing any bets. Hard to weigh home court I agree.