.....Guys I feel my capping ability is pretty strong, but I always seem to lose in the unluckiest of ways. There have been about 100 worse then this example in the last 6 months or so, but I thought I would use as an example for help. So I got on NC State early in the day at +6.5 and bought a half point to make it +7.5.
NC State is up by 3 with 4:00 to go, so I would think I'm in good shape. Their ahead, they are dominating in the paint and Tracy Smith is just starting to impose his will. Then it completely caves in. Three 3 balls in about a 45 second span.
I automatically think to myself that its horrendous luck, but am I not capping something right?? Then the kicker is at the end after NC State misses a 3 with 22 seconds left down 9...and they don't foul. I have seen teams foul down more with less time. For example, Indiana fouled NW on Sunday down 12 with 3 seconds left.
Guys, I am really asking for help here. These scenarios seem to happen wayy too often, and it may simply be missing something important when capping. Thanks Gentlemen!
Also, stupid crap like this is a large reason I don't want to keep records or spreadsheets.
Who wants to start 2-13, with brutal losses all mixed in. For example, how about NW up 12 at halftime on Indiana Sunday, so I jump on NW at -1 2nd half. Well NW goes ahead by 26....Fantastic, I am now up 13 points, and against Indiana to boot. Ya, there was no way I would be lucky enough to hang on. Indiana scores about 12 possessions in a row, and NW misses about 11 free throws in the last 10 minutes, and only win the game by 12, making my 2nd half wager a loser by 1 point.
Now why would I want to track this in a spreadsheet? I feel like I capped the line right, and that I just got burnt. I figure tracking mechanisms are to learn from past mistakes, or did I make betting this line, even though they got up 26??? I might be missing something very important here guys!
day to day activities are virtually worthless. Get a long range plan, and a long range spreadsheet. I have lost/pushed 4 football games this year because of a missed/blocked extra point. While that sucks, and the plays would have won if not for the XP miscue, I still don't think I did a good enough job if I am sweating out 1 pt wins.
Basically there are 2 things that I monitor to see if I am capping things correctly. Does the line I bet beat the closing #. How often? How many units am I up. Those are really the only 2 things I care about
YA.....stuff I already know jds, but things that I need to hear repeated.
I have a horrible habit of starting fresh, and falling from my gameplan, and stop tracking plays because of bad 1-2 week runs. It's hard to stay true when I start out say 25-15 over a 6 week period, and then fall to 28-26 almost instantly.
I've been stinking it up myself for a few weeks. So I've reduced the amounts of my wagers, and the number of games I'm betting on, and will keep those down until I feel better. That's all I know to do.
Best of luck turning it around -- and you will turn it around.
Just for fun to pass the time at work, I put a half a unit of Liverpool/Blackpool Under 2.5 based on some good soccer cappers in the Soccer section. 1-1 11 minutes into the game.....haha!
Im kicking myself because I was going to take Ipswich/Arsenal under 3....and its 0-0 almost at the break. When it rains it pours. I'm taking the approach where I'm just sitting here chuckling...hard to get mad really because I knew it was going to happen!
Hopefully tonight goes better. I've been trying to be creative and avoid the squarehead picks, but the squares are cashing. I will shift gears yet again, and play the square plays....Syracuse, Northwestern, etc.
I find it beyond comical that the Ipswich/Arsenal game of a larger total (3) gets its first goal at the 86th minute.
Now guys, if anyone is really winning longterm in this nasty game.....I'd love to meet him. I'd say there might be 10 people tops who make decent money in this business longterm, the rest either get hammered or lie about their success stories.
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Originally Posted by No coincidences
