1. 01-04-11 03:11 PM #1
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Big Ten Season Long Thread- Juanitodelfuego

    Its about time to get started. A few thing I like to lay out there:

    1) My model is statistically driven, so soft pre-season (A la IU) have to be taken into account.

    2) I base picks off of my model that is 5 yrs in the making and it can change throughout the season as I just picked up two new statistical modeling books.

    3) I tend to pick up traction when all teams have played 4 conference games, that is when I really discount pre-season and mismatches.

    4) My units are $25/ unit.

    5) I appreciate input, your picks and what you think.

    thanks,
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-04-11 03:21 PM #2
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Tonight two matchups:

    IU vs. MN - look for IU to fall 61-73, falling short of the total of 138. I am 1x on MN and the Under. Remember, don't bet IU till they cover 2 or 3 times, then still think about it. MN 1X, U 1X

    OS vs. UI - I like the Hawkeyes in the early season game. New coach, no travel and 12.5 pts. I have UI losing 63-72, just breaking the O of 134. UI 1X, O 1X
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-05-11 03:14 PM #3
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    2011 B10 Season Record 3-1, +2 units
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-05-11 03:19 PM #4
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Tonight two matchups:

    PU - 6 vs. PS - Got to go with Purdue here. They are playing tough, road doesn't discourage them and they will roll PS. I have Purdue winning 71-61 which covers the 6, and also covers the over of 127. PU 2x, O 1x.

    UM+11 vs. UW - this is not the Dubba of old, i like them, its hard to win up north, but 11 points is a lot between these two teams. also, the 116.5 O/U is the books looking too historic on the stingy defense of UW. I have Michigan losing 58 - 63. UM 1x O 2x.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-05-11 03:24 PM #5
    BrewMaster
    BrewMaster's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-03-10
    Posts: 555
    Betpoints: 1945

    I'm liking Purdue. Might parlay a small amount on the over as well.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-05-11 04:19 PM #6
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    I just looked again and the total on the PU vs. PS game just dropped a 1/2 point.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-06-11 03:29 PM #7
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    2011 B10 Season Record 6-4, +2 units
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-06-11 03:32 PM #8
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Tonight 1 game, cross state rivals IL are hosting The Wildcats of Northwestern. We have IL giving 8 pts with a total of 142.

    IL has gone over in their first two games this year besting 133 and 123. NW has gone over once. I like the under here. 2X

    As far a side, if you made me pick, I would go with IL as we have had 3 of 14 games go to the underdog so far. I have IL winning 74-64, but too close for me tonight.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-07-11 04:41 PM #9
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    2011 B 10 Season Record 6-5, even
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-08-11 09:31 AM #10
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Today, one game and two plays. One BIG one small.

    I am ALL over Michigan State -6 today. 5X, locked in. MS covered at home vs. MN and on the road against NW. PS has covered one time out of three in B10 play. What is Penn State without Taylor Battle....they are IU and IU would lose to MS by 18 at home. So, to reiterate, all over MS -6.

    Also, 2x on the Over of 131.5 . I have MS 74 PS 64.
    Last edited by juanitodelfuego; 01-08-11 at 11:33 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 01-08-11 09:34 AM #11
    jagaf22
    jagaf22's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-08
    Posts: 2,932
    Betpoints: 28

    Is Battle not gonna go? What I've seen has him as probable.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 01-08-11 11:31 AM #12
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    He will be there, but MS D will hold him back a little more than most. I have him scoring about 60% of his average or 14 pts, this, IMO, will make the difference.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 01-11-11 01:25 PM #13
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Back on the horse tonight with 2 matchups.

    Wiskey rolling into Michigan State tonight. I am looking for UW to lose by 1, and cover the 4pts, also see this going over the total of 121. I am 1x on UW and 2x on the Over.

    We also have the Fighting Illinis heady to Penn State. I will say, i have handed PS an unfair rep so far this year....and i am going to keep it rolling. i have the Illinois Boys beating PS 76-68, covering the 5pts and sending this over 135. I am 2x on IL and 1X on the Over.

    Sidenote, average Total for a Big 10 game right now, taking out the 93-81 win by NW over IU, is 137.5.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 01-11-11 01:31 PM #14
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Big 10 Record to Date
    6-7, -7 units
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 01-12-11 12:59 PM #15
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Tonight I am playing the over in OS @ UM 1x and taking the under in NW @ UI 1x.

    i am getting conflicting outcomes on the sides due to recent play, so going with totals.

    Big 10 Record to Date
    8-9, -7 units
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 01-13-11 12:35 PM #16
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Wow, Northwestern is on a tear.

    Tonight I am rolling with PU -2 at Minnesota, I am also on the over 134. I have PU winning 72-67. Minney is tough, but Purdue has had the most consistent play i have seen this year in the B10. 1X each

    Big 10 Record to Dat
    9-9 -7 units
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 01-15-11 10:42 AM #17
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Big Ten Record to Date
    10-11, -7 units
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 01-15-11 10:53 AM #18
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Saturday 4 games, going in rough but I am finally getting some outcomes that are cooperating.

    NW @ MS, I have NW dropping this by 5 so I am with the Wildcats +8.5 1x and under 142 2x.

    IL @ UW, I have IL winning by 1, so i am going with IL+6 for 1x and over 124 2x.

    PS @ OS, I am on PS+17 for 1 x and over 129 2x.

    Lastly, UM coming to IU. I have to go with IU, so you should take UM. I am on IU -2 and the over 129 1x.
    Last edited by juanitodelfuego; 01-15-11 at 01:20 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 01-15-11 02:20 PM #19
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Wow, an under that outlasted OT in East Lansing. +3.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 01-15-11 03:33 PM #20
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    I am upping my Over 129 on PS @ OSU to 2x
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 01-15-11 03:43 PM #21
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    Quote Originally Posted by juanitodelfuego View Post
    I am upping my Over 129 on PS @ OSU to 2x
    i'm on this over. BOL to you.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 01-15-11 11:04 PM #22
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Not a bad day. 7-1 for +9 units.

    Brings my B10 season to 17-12 + 2 units.

    And my first IU win and cover
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 01-18-11 05:59 PM #23
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Late picks for tonight:

    1X MS + 4.5, i have the losing 67- 65.
    1X Under 135

    1X NW - 7 vs. UM. i have them wining by 8, but they can blow it out.
    2x Over 132, NW has gone over 6 out of 8 times and they can
    run it up.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 01-18-11 06:03 PM #24
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by juanitodelfuego View Post
    Late picks for tonight:

    1X MS + 4.5, i have the losing 67- 65.
    1X Under 135

    1X NW - 7 vs. UM. i have them wining by 8, but they can blow it out.
    2x Over 132, NW has gone over 6 out of 8 times and they can
    run it up.
    Why is that number plummeting?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 01-18-11 06:08 PM #25
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Why is that number plummeting?
    might be a lot of zone in this game.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 01-18-11 06:12 PM #26
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by BiffTFinancial View Post
    might be a lot of zone in this game.
    Hard to cap two teams that shoot as many 3's as they do.

    It could be 59-55 or 89-85 depending on how many bombs drop.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 01-18-11 06:14 PM #27
    spargament
    KHABIB
    spargament's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-22-09
    Posts: 1,739
    Betpoints: 367

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Hard to cap two teams that shoot as many 3's as they do.

    It could be 59-55 or 89-85 depending on how many bombs drop.
    somebody watched the thunder's thunderously horrible 3 pt shooting last night
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 01-18-11 06:17 PM #28
    tbill11
    tbill11's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-15-09
    Posts: 1,451
    Betpoints: 72

    Just curious for a little more insight on the Northwestern pick. Michigan's coming off a brutal 4 game loss stretch and will be really hungry for a win. I think they're a relatively talented team plagued by a hideous schedule. Thoughts?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 01-19-11 09:20 AM #29
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Quote Originally Posted by tbill11 View Post
    Just curious for a little more insight on the Northwestern pick. Michigan's coming off a brutal 4 game loss stretch and will be really hungry for a win. I think they're a relatively talented team plagued by a hideous schedule. Thoughts?

    I hear you, but I do not have enough trend data to support tweeking their number.

    I had UM losing by 8, 74-66. If it would have been a turn around game at home, I would have bumped UM a little bit because they have played harder at home. the reason for my pick not only of NW, but the over, is that NW has blown it up a couple times against marginal teams. Over 90 pts vs. Iowa and Indiana.

    As the season progresses and I get more home-away data I keep dialing it in.

    Hope that makes sense.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 01-19-11 09:22 AM #30
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Big Ten Season 20-13 + 5 units
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 01-19-11 03:07 PM #31
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Okay here we go. Tonight Iowa is heading to Ohio State and carrying 19.5 points with them and a total of 134.5. I have Iowa losing 76-64. Now, OSU has been performing within 4.5 pts of my forecast, so even if they way outperform, we still have some room with that 19.5. The only hickup is Iowa continuing to play bad on the road. They score 16.5 pts better on their home court, 72 home 55 road. But Iowa put up 68, covered when they lost by 5 to OSU 2 weeks ago. i like Iowa here 2x. I am also on the over 1X

    Purdue hosting Penn State- First I am 3x on the over 128. Purdue has gone over 4 out of 5 times and PS gone over 4 out of 6 times. Penn State has a better average on the road by +6.5 and they both have the ability to open it up. Penn State got beat by 15 last time out as 6 pt dogs, so I do not think 13 is enough on the road. I am taking PU -13 1X. I have PS losing 62-72, too close for me to take the road dogs when Purdue is coming off a road loss to WVA.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 01-19-11 03:24 PM #32
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Big Ten Play Stats YTD
    Over 19 Under 12
    Average Total 137
    Fav Cover 17 Dog Cover 14
    Road Fav Cover 6 vs. 5 not covering - worst road offender is a tie between UM and MS.
    Home Fav Cover 11 vs. 9 not covering - worst home offender is OSU
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 01-20-11 07:17 PM #33
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    that hurt.

    UW 73 IU 62 tonight
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 01-20-11 09:02 PM #34
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Big Ten Season 20-17 -1 unit
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 01-21-11 08:17 PM #35
    juanitodelfuego
    Lets go IU
    juanitodelfuego's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-09
    Posts: 514
    Betpoints: 1109

    Big Ten Season 22-17 +1 unit
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
1234 ... Last
Top
« Previous Thread | NCAA Basketball Betting | Next Thread »