3-2 on the day for Tier 3, 1-0 for Tiers 1 and 2.Originally Posted by DuncHen22
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12-28-10 11:15 PM #36
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12-28-10 11:16 PM #37
Updated record after 12/28:
T1: 22-13 (63%) +7.7 units
T2: 27-15 (64%) +10.5 units
T3: 35-22 (61%) +10.8 units
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12-28-10 11:20 PM #38
We got a lot on tap for 12/29. 8 Tier 1's and the weird thing is none of them are favorites according to the odds (but all 7 are favorites according to KP).
Tier 1:
Wash State +2
Missouri State +2.5
Creighton +1
Drake +1.5
New Mexico State +1.5
Boston College PK
George Mason PK
Northern Colorado +1
Tier 2:
Iowa +4
Tier 3:
Fordham +4
Northeastern +5
New Hampshire +6
Delaware +7
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12-29-10 01:18 AM #39
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12-29-10 05:19 AM #40
Originally Posted by Blue_Chips
Thanks!
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12-29-10 06:02 AM #41
I watched CSU play and they got some decent players. I took CSU.
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12-29-10 02:14 PM #42
Damn, a lot of these games are moving away from KP's predictions. That's no good. With 13 games in one day, we could see our entire profit go out the window here. Let's hope KP knows what he's talking about today.
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12-29-10 02:33 PM #43
KP?
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12-30-10 12:09 AM #44
Originally Posted by Bcatswin
Ken Pomeroy, of KenPom.com
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12-30-10 12:14 AM #45
Originally Posted by DuncHen22
Wow, that went a lot better than my pessimistic self had thought it would!
T1: 5-3, +1.7 units
T2: 5-4, +0.6 units
T3: 8-5, +2.5 units
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12-30-10 12:20 AM #46
Overall:
T1: 27-16 (63%) +9.4 units
T2: 32-19 (63%) +11.1 units
T3: 43-27 (61%) +13.3 units
When I started this, I really thought Tier 1 would be the best, followed by Tier 2, then Tier 3. Percentage-wise, that's true, but Tier 3 is picking up way more units. It's looking like so far the only limits needed on KP's predictions are 2+ differential and no double-digit spreads.
It's still way too early to call this a legitimate system to put money on, but so far I'm liking it more and more every day.
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12-30-10 12:24 AM #47
Nice. Thanx for posting
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12-30-10 12:52 AM #48
No problem! Originally Posted by shopbar picks
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12-30-10 12:53 AM #49
Quiet day today:
12/30:
Tier 1:
Iowa State +1.5
Long Beach St -1.5
Tier 3:
Wisco-GB +5Last edited by DuncHen22; 12-30-10 at 01:47 AM.
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12-30-10 01:30 AM #50
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12-30-10 01:34 AM #51
Post #45 Originally Posted by Blue_Chips
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12-30-10 03:10 AM #52
I should have tailed these today I had a shocker in the college hoops
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12-30-10 08:55 AM #53
DuncHen this is some really interesting stuff. Keep up the good work.
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12-30-10 10:38 PM #54
T1: 29-16 (64%) +11.4 units Originally Posted by DuncHen22
T2: 34-19 (64%) +13.1 units
T3: 45-28 (62%) +14.2 units
Another positive day! I'm starting to play with betpoints on a regular basis with these picks now. Hopefully that doesn't jinx it.
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12-30-10 11:18 PM #55
12/31:
Tier 1:
Michigan St -8
Northern Colorado -3.5
Washington -4
Northern Arizona -1
Tier 3:
Hawaii +4
Let's end 2010 on a good note!
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12-30-10 11:19 PM #56
12/31:
Tier 1:
Michigan St -8
Northern Colorado -3.5
Washington -4
Northern Arizona -1
Tier 3:
Hawaii +4
Let's end 2010 on a good note!
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12-31-10 02:57 AM #57
agreed, thanx again
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12-31-10 12:44 PM #58
4 of the 5 picks for today have moved the wrong way (NAU is the only one that didn't move). Hawaii was the biggest mover, going from +4 to +6.5.
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12-31-10 04:22 PM #59
Question DuncHen, are you sure that you're not releasing these picks to early? Originally Posted by DuncHen22
Noticed you released these last night at 11:19, just an observation.
Been tailing you since last week, when you came out with this and you've done well keep up the good work...............
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12-31-10 05:34 PM #60
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12-31-10 08:10 PM #61
Good question. I like to get the opening lines on my plays because generally if there is a bad line, it will be the first line out and the market will correct toward the "true" line. That doesn't mean every time a line moves, it's moving toward the winner. But with so many sharps out there with successful systems, they will jump all over a bad line when it's first printed. And I like to be in the front of that line if can. You know you have a good system if the market closes close to your predictions. Also, if a line has a differential of less than 2 at the start, and later moves to being more than a 2 point difference from KP's predictions, that would indicate (to me, anyway) that there is something going on that KP couldn't factor in (injury, starting lineup switch, etc). That's another reason I like to take the opening lines. Originally Posted by TEXAS MICKEY
That being said, it's worth looking into line movements more. I should follow lines more closely to see if there is a better time to buy and see what happens when a line moves from within 2pts to outside 2pts. The problem with doing that is it would add quite a bit of time to my already busy schedule. I'll look into it though.
Thanks!!
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12-31-10 08:11 PM #62
2-2 so far tonight with just Hawaii left to finish up. They're down 16 at the half but you really never know what can happen in conference games. I'm not going to hold out hope on this one, though...
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12-31-10 09:24 PM #63
T1: 31-18 (63%) +11.2 units Originally Posted by DuncHen22
T2: 36-21 (63%) +12.9 units
T3: 47-31 (60%) +12.9 units
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12-31-10 09:38 PM #64
Tier 1:
New Mexico +1
Boston College PK
Oregon +1
Loyola-Chicago -4
Wichita St -6
Syracuse -7
Have a great New Years! Don't drink and drive tonight!
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01-01-11 01:17 AM #65
happy new year! good luck with these plays Originally Posted by DuncHen22
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01-01-11 07:35 PM #66
3-1 thus far with 2 games left
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01-02-11 12:19 AM #67
4-2 +1.8 units Originally Posted by DuncHen22
T1: 35-20 (64%) +13.0 units
T2: 40-23 (63%) +14.7 units
T3: 51-33 (61%) +14.7 units
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01-02-11 12:29 AM #68
1/2:
Tier 1:
Charleston +2
Portland State +2
FIU +2
Tier 3:
LSU +6
Penn State +8
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01-02-11 12:48 AM #69
Just in case anyone was curious, here is the breakdown for Tier 1 home and away predictions:
Home: 13-7 (65%)
Away: 22-13 (63%)
I'll keep my eye on this but it looks like so far it doesn't make a difference (I wouldn't call 2% statistically significant at this point in time). I've also noticed that this system calls a lot more away games, which implies the books are possibly a little too lenient on the home teams.
Here is the strictly Tier 2 breakdown:
5-3 (63%)
And finally, strictly Tier 3:
14-13 (52%)
My initial thought that KP is better at predicting favorites (tier 1) versus home dogs (tier 2) doesn't seem to be panning out. However, thus far there is a considerable difference between favorites/home dogs and away dogs (tier 3). It's still too early to tell (especially for tier 2, since their have only been 8 plays) but I thought I'd give everyone an update on the breakdown thus far.
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01-02-11 01:01 AM #70
Further breakdown (differential):
Here is the breakdown based on the difference between the spread and KP's predictions. Remember, my cutoff is 2 points so it goes up from their:
Tier 1:
2.0: 10-4 (71%)
2.5: 10-7 (59%)
3.0: 4-6 (40%)
3.5: 7-1 (88%)
4.0: 2-0 (100%)
4.5: 2-1 (67%)
5.0: 0-1 (0%)
Tier 2:
2.0: 0-2 0%
2.5: 3-0 100%
3.0: 2-0 100%
3.5: 0-1 0%
Tier 3:
2.0: 6-3 (67%)
2.5: 1-2 (33%)
3.0: 2-5 (29%)
3.5: 1-0 (100%)
...
8.0: 1-0 (100%)
Total:
2.0: 16-9 (64%)
2.5: 14-9 (61%)
3.0: 8-11 (42%)
3.5: 8-2 (80%)
4.0: 2-0 (100%)
4.5: 2-1 (67%)
5.0: 0-1 (0%)
...
8.0: 1-0 (100%)
Obviously it would be silly to read too much into this by saying, "don't play 3pt differential games." I think it's just good to realize 2 points, so far, has proven to be successful (some other KP prediction systems set the bar higher).
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