Well we took alittle bit more from the crookies last night as Bradley sneaks inside the number +5.5, and give me a 8-1 CBB run since last thursday when I joined the site. I guess it depends on what number you got it at some had it at +5, but that is why it is always important to get the best price.
I also released 3 baseball picks yesterday, which also went on a 3-0 sweep. Mets on the run line, D-rays, and padres/astros under.
YTD:
CBB: 8-1
MLB: 3-0
Today we go with:
UMass/Florida over the posted total 154.5
Ohio St. -2
UMass/Florida over 154.5
I saw the game 4 days ago and bought the line when it was 153.5 because I love the over here. People let me run you some numbers, UMass is on a 4-0 over streak when playing SEC opponents in its last 4, and 18-8-1 in the over when playing out of conference. Also, Florida has also played the over 5 out of its last 6 at a neutral site. Both teams like to get up and down the court and both teams love to shoot the 3 ball. I really think this game is going to be played in the high 150s or 160s. I don't think this will be a blowout either way so look for free throws to be added on in the end, but the pace of this game should be up and down. Even if UMass falls behind we all saw how many points they can put up in a hurry. Play the over.
Ohio State
I don't know about this Mississippi crew. They sure can put some points on the board but they don't really play on the defensive end. Plus, I just don't trust them in this big of a game situation. I would rather take the team that has been there done that. Now I know this Ohio State team lost alot from the team they took to the title game last year but they still have Butler, Lighty, and Hunter from that squad and that is enough for me. Ohio St has really played well on the defensive end in this NIT tournament and look for them to bring that to New York. They have been torching every team they have played in this tourney and I don't expect anything different tonight. The bigger storyline behind this is we could be looking at a rematch of last years national championship in the NIT final. Look for Ohio State to do their part. Lay the number.
I like the Ohio St pick, however, there will be a substantially larger focus on defense this evening than these teams have shown in their past precedent and I will have to fade the over which has now gone up to 155.5 at several books.