Originally Posted by
ritehook
Lots of danger.
I almost always do well, betting-wise, in this tournament. Usually have from 15 to around 23 plays, most in 1st Round natch. Last year went a good 10-5 ATS.
But I also almost always do very well in the bowl games. And this last bowl bash went into the tank so deep I'm stil scraping the smelly barnacles off my hide.
Like many bettors, I have my susperstitions. So I'm thinking I angered the omnipotent gods of gambling by posting my plays last December.
I know i posted more plays then than I usually do.
So, this is an experiment. To see if I can overcome any hex involved in my putting plays out there.
And, mainly, it's to have a convenient place to record my own bets. I will do a brief write-up on each, but likely will not have time on Friday nite or Sat morn for the Round of 32.
Thus, avoid the danger. Either fade or ignore.
Odds are from Bookmaker an hour or so ago. I rate each play as one unit, 1 1/2, or (rarely) 2.
THURS
Belmont +20 (Duke) 1 unit
Belmont lost to Gtown last year in Rd 1, but managed to cover the 17 pts. Bruins a more veteran team now. And Duke is often, in Rd 1, inclined to "loaf," to not kick into high gear until the 2nd round. They also have some achey players (inc Paulus) so may give a few of their starters more rest than usual.
Georgia +8.5 (Xavier) 1 unit
Yes, I do know tht Georgia is a strange qualifier for this event. But if you believe in "mo" ya gotta have Georgia on your mind. Musketeers likely win, but if Georgia is not all tuckered out after their heroic run thru the SEC tourney they may be getting a few points too many here.
George Mason +6.5 (Notre Dame) 2 units
My only 2 unit play in Rd 1. Yeah, some think the Irish are so balanced and with a #2 rated Assist/Turnover ratio that they go a long way in this tournament. But what has me negative toward them is that they rely too much on the perimeter shot.
I've seen before in this event that teams that excel in that in regular season often see if fail them under the pressure of the tournament.
George Mason won't have any jitters. We all recall their magical run into the Final Four two years ago, and around half the players who did that are back.
Let me post these and I'm back in a few minutes.