[EaglesPhan36]

Seems sheik to have your own NCAA tourny thread. I'm a follower. Feel free to shamelessly bash me or stick a spork in my spleen if need be.

ROUND 1 STRATEGY
Round 1 is different than all the others in strategy or so I believe. The 5/12s & 6/11s bring with them the opportunity. That is where I am going heaviest in Round 1. Doggie Style.

5/12s
A little historical perspective on the dogs. Here's final scores from the 5/12 games over the past 5 years.

2007
No. 5 Butler 57, No. 12 Old Dominion 46
No. 5 Virginia Tech 54, No. 12 Illinois 52
No. 5 Southern California 77, No. 12 Arkansas 60
No. 5 Tennessee 121, No. 12 Long Beach State 86

2006
No. 5 Washington 75, No. 12 Utah State 61
No. 12 Montana 87, No. 5 Nevada 79
No. 12 Texas A&M 66, No. 5 Syracuse 58
No. 5 Pittsburgh 79, No. 12 Kent State 64

2005
No. 5 Villanova 55, No. 12 New Mexico 47
No. 5 Michigan State 89, No. 12 Old Dominion 81
No. 12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 83, No. 5 Alabama 73
No. 5 Georgia Tech 80, No. 12 George Washington 68

2004
No. 12 Pacific 66, No. 5 Providence 58
No. 12 Manhattan 75, No. 5 Florida 60
No. 5 Illinois 72, No. 12 Murray St. 53
No. 5 Syracuse 80, No. 12 BYU 75

2003
No. 5 Wisconsin 81, No. 12 Weber St. 74
No. 5 Notre Dame 70, No. 12 WI-Milwaulee 69
No. 5 Connecticut 58, No. 12 BYU 53
No. 12 Butler 47, No. 5 Mississippi St. 46

2002: 3 12s won, 2001: 2 12s won, 2000: No 12s won

The common perception is that 12s normally find at least one victim. And as you see, only twice this decade has a 12 failed to pull of an upset. In looking at the scores though, when the 5s win, they tend to win by a margin that will cover most of this year's spreads. So how do we find the value plays on the 12s and cash the MLs? Look at the past.

1. 5s UNDESERVING OF THEIR SEED/OVER-RATED/INCONSISTENT. Tends to be power conference teams or a "Top 25" team. Look at Nevada in '06, Alabama in '05 & Providence in '04 & Miss. State in '03 as examples.

Notre Dame, Michigan State, Drake, Clemson
Right away, Michigan State stands out. Talented sure, but inconsistent down the stretch. Drake would be the other you might be able to consider here as their out-of-conference schedule didn't feature much in the way of competition. They dominated the MVC, but this year's MVC wasn't quite as good as past seasons.

2. 5s LACK A "GO-TO" GUY. What I mean here is that the 5s who were bitten generally did not have a guy capable of stepping up and saying - hey, I'm not f-ing losing to a lower seed.

Notre Dame, Michigan State, Drake, Clemson
A case could be made for every team not named Notre Dame because of Harangody & others. State does have Neitzel, but he has disappeared several times this season in games. Outside of last year's tourny game vs. UNC, Neitzel generally has not been that go-to guy in the NCAAs in his career. As good a story as Drake has been, is one of their guys going to be "the guy" in crunch time. They are a well-balanced scoring team. Josh Young & leonard Houston would be the closest things and both needed to do more in the last 3 losses for Drake. Clemson? Another team of balanced scorers. KC Rivers or Cliff Hammonds could be "the guy" .. but FT shooting and inconsistency in big games could haunt the Tigers.

3. 12s on a ROLL/CONF. TOURNY CHAMPS. Montana in '06 had won 10 of 13. UW-Milwaukee in '05 won 17 of 18. Pacific in '04 had won 15 straight. Manhattan won 12 of 13 in '04.

George Mason, Temple, W.Kentucky, Villanova
Mason fails to fit the bill here. They did win their tourny, but were just 6-5 down the stretch. Temple has won 7 straight and their conf. tourny - a definite fit. WKU - 17 of 18 and their conf. tourny. Villanova also doesn't fit the profile.

So in matching up those 3 criteria, where do the best wagers lie in the 5/12s?

1. TEMPLE +7 or ML +260
2. W.KENTUCKY +4 or ML +180

My strategy here is 1.5 units on the spreads and 1 unit on the ML. If you nail down at least one of the ML wins, you're guaranteed being up close to a unit for the day or more if the bigger dog hits.

Four Bets Total: Temple +7, W.Kentucky +4, Temple ML, W.Kentucky ML

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'm with you on Temple, EP. I'm taking the points though. I actually like Drake against W. Kentucky but only have a slight lean with them. I think if they get past the first round they could be the Cinderella of the tourney...

[EaglesPhan36]

6/11s
Here's your breakdown of the 6/11s in the past 5 years.

2007
No. 11 Winthrop 74, No. 6 Notre Dame 64
No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth 79, No. 6 Duke 77
No. 6 Vanderbilt 77, No. 11 George Washington 44
No. 6 Louisville 78, No. 11 Stanford 58

2006
No. 11 George Mason 75, No. 6 Michigan State 65
No. 11 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 82, No. 6 Oklahoma 74
No. 6 West Virginia 64, No. 11 Southern Illinois 46
No. 6 Indiana 87, No. 11 San Diego State 83

2005
No. 6 Wisconsin 57, No. 11 Northern Iowa 52
No. 6 Utah 60, No. 11 Texas-El Paso 54
No. 11 UAB 82, No. 6 LSU 68
No. 6 Texas Tech 78, No. 11 UCLA 66

2004
No. 6 Boston College 58, No. 11 Utah 51
No. 6 Wisconsin 76, No. 11 Richmond 64
No. 6 North Carolina 63, No. 11 Air Force 52
No. 6 Vanderbilt 71, No. 11 W. Michigan 58

2003
No. 6 Missouri 72, No. 11 S. Illinois 71
No. 11 C. Michigan 79, No. 6 Creighton 73
No. 6 Maryland 75, No. 11 UNC-Wilmington 73
No. 6 Oklahoma St. 77, No. 11 Pennsylvania 63

2002: 2 11s won, 2001: 2 11s won, 2000: 1 11 won.

With the exception of 2004, an 11 has won every year this decade & more often - 2 11 seeds have won. And the other thing you might notice is that these 6/11 games for the most part are very competitive. Here's where I see the value going in many of these match-ups.

1. 6s SUSPECT. This stands out with a team like Duke last year. Notre Dame to an extent in '07 and teams like Creighton back in '03 that may have had good records, but you were surprised to see them get the higher seed.

Oklahoma, USC, Marquette, Purdue
OU jumps out right away. Easily the weakest 6 seed in this year's tourny. The others seem seeded about right.

2. MID MAJORS ARE MAJOR. The teams that generally have risen up to put on the slipper from the 11 seeds are from the so-called "Mid Majors." The Colonial Conference, MAC, Horizon and smaller have all snatched big wins.

St.Joseph's, Kansas State, Kentucky, Baylor
One of the few seasons where power conferences dot the 11 line. St.Joe's foots the bill for me here though as the A-10 is still a power conference, but features some quality competition.

3. THE BIGGER YOUR NAME, THE HARDER YOU FALL.
Indiana in 2000. Wisconsin & Texas in 2001. Michigan State, Duke, Notre Dame. Some big names schools have gone down hard as 6 seeds. Oh and did you notice the Big 10 flame out? Even when the Big 10 6 seeds win, it's tough.

Oklahoma, USC, Marquette, Purdue
No shortage of names here. Big 10 anyone?

So where is the value in the 6/11s when you match up the criteria?


St.JOSEPH'S ML
BAYLOR +3
My strategy here is 1 unit each.

Additionally, although they do not necessarily fit all the criteria....


KENTUCKY +6 or ML +225

Strategy here is also 1.5 units on the spread and one unit on the ML

I believe at least 2 #11s will advance. St.Joe's is the best wager IMO while Kentucky and Baylor I believe offer the next best odds.

Four Bets total: St.Joe's ML, Baylor +3, Kentucky +6, Kentucky ML

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm with you on Temple, EP. I'm taking the points though. I actually like Drake against W. Kentucky but only have a slight lean with them. I think if they get past the first round they could be the Cinderella of the tourney...

I actually like Drake alot as a team, but I think the WKU match-up is pretty even, so I always trend to take the points. I think WKU has the gunners to keep up in this game. Should be a fun one.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'm with you on St. Joes as well but against you on Baylor. They seem to rarely show up for the big games. As much as the Big 10 is getting dogged this year, Wisconsin came to Texas and showed up the Big 12 powerhouse. Purdue beat Wisconsin both times they met this year. I think Purdue rolls over Baylor.

[EaglesPhan36]

Also going with one 2 unit play per day this weekend. The hot cheerleader pick o' the day


THURSDAY, MARCH 20th: UCLA-MSVU OVER 123
UCLA's defense was bit out of wack down the stretch and while Mississippi Valley won't take advantage enough to make this game close, they can perhaps squeak out 50-55. I expect UCLA to score 70+ and that should be just enough to get this over the #.



THURSDAY'S WAGERS PLACED
* Temple +7.5 [1.5 units]
* Temple ML +280 [0.5 units]