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SEC Conference Tournament Preview
The SEC Tournament kicks off from the Georgia Dome on Thursday afternoon as South Carolina and LSU tip things off at 1:00 PM. The twelve team SEC awards first round bye’s to its top four seeds (Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Kentucky) while the other eight will have to win to advance to the quarter finals. The biggest threat from the opening round figures to be the Vanderbilt Commodores. Kevin Stallings’ team is disappointed to be playing in the opening round, but having already beaten the one and two seeds in the division, The Dores realize that they’re a contender in Atlanta. Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt are in; this weekend we’ll see who else cements their spot in the Big Dance.
A couple of 13-17 teams open up the festivities with the Tigers and Gamecocks squaring off for the second time in ’08. In the first matchup LSU went into Carolina as a 12 and a half point dog and walked out with a seven point victory. On that night the Tigers were led by SEC All-Freshman Team forward Anthony Randolph who notched a double-double with 20 points and 10 boards. LSU has won four of their last five and covered in five straight. The gamecocks have lost five of their last six and have failed to cover in four of five. SC has to be a little shaken after their meltdown in Knoxville and I think they’re about ready to pack it in for the season. LSU has been playing well and I expect them to win and cover the point they’re favored by. The Tigers move on to face Chris Lofton and the Volunteers.
The second game on the card this Thursday features the No. 3 seed Vanderbilt Commodores taking on the No. 6 seed Auburn Tigers. Back in the beginning of February these two schools met in Nashville where the home team took faired better in a 78-71 result. The total in this one is at 151.5 which seems a bit high and the line set on this game is eight and a half. My numbers give me an 81-64 result which leaves me on the Dores and the under. Vanderbilt will be back to take on Arkansas on Friday.
In the evening we have the most intriguing bout of the initial round when Alabama locks up with the Florida Gators as a three point underdog. Billy Donavan’s bunch have a lot on the line as most still consider Florida a bubble team despite the rough ending to their 2008 campaign. Early in the season these two teams met in Alabama and the road team left town with a 90-83 victory. That game saw The Tide jump out to an early lead only to have the Gators dominate the second half in the first half of their sweep of the Alabama schools. The University of Florida, 7th in the nation in FG%, finished that game at over 50% from the floor and 50% from behind the arc. I think coach Donavan will have his team ready for a Crimson Tide squad that allows over 73 points per game; Florida moves on to face W1 Mississippi State.
As the night winds down the Ole Miss Rebels will take on the Georgia Bulldogs. Many will recall that this Mississippi squad reeled off 13 wins in a row to start the season before they eventually fell, by a bucket, to the Volunteers. This game is a rematch of one that took place this past weekend when Ole Miss dominated the Dawgs in Georgia. The Rebels seem to control their own destiny as far as getting to the NCAA Tournament. Mississippi is the only “bubble” team with a winning record against the RPI top 50, but many think they’ll need at least one win in the SEC tourney to get into The Dance. Therefore, the motivation factor is clearly on the side of the favorite and I see them covering the 5 points to end a busy night in Atlanta.
With the four favorites moving on, we get to the meat of things as the SEC’s top overall seed, Tennessee Volunteers, sit center stage and look to build upon their resume for a No.1 seed in a favorable region of the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee and LSU met earlier this year, in LSU, and the proved to be one of the tougher contests for the Vols in the 07-08 season. Tennessee led most of the game but never neared the cover at 11.5. In that meeting several of Bruce Pearl’s players were said to be suffering from the flu, but it’d be hard to take away credit from and LSU defense that played as well as they have all season. I would expect the line here to be around 15, but I’m not certain I would lay that many points vs. a team that’s already shown it can handle the Vols half court offense. An interesting note from that game is that it fell 58 points under the closing total; I would assume that you won’t see any 150’s out there if these two were to meet on Friday.
Friday afternoon is likely to showcase the Commodores and the Razorbacks. On the first of this month Arkansas knocked Vanderbilt out of a potential one or two seed in the east and shoved them back into the first round. Vandy ended their season on a rough stretch following their much publicized win over Tennessee. The Dores lost at Arkansas, beat Mississippi State in overtime, and then went on to lose at Alabama in OT to close out their regular season. The two First Team All-SEC players in this game, Sonny Weems and Shan Foster, should see plenty of each other this Friday. Foster knocked down six of eight from three point land the last time these two met up and he’s recently been named SEC player of the year by the coaches. In the last meeting Ark. Sr. center, Steven Hill was in foul trouble much of the game and only finished with 11 minutes on the night. Hill is a first team All-Conference defensive player and he will be huge in trying to slow down Andrew Ogilvy. Arkansas is the higher seed, but Vanderbilt is ranked higher in all the polls and is likely to come in as a small favorite despite having played the night before. Regardless of the line, I like the Razorbacks to win a close one and advance on the see the East’s No.1 seed.
Kicking off Friday’s night action will be the winner of the Gators vs. Tide facing the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Neither of those two teams has a win against the Bulldogs this year in a combined three attempts. State is led by unanimous first team All-Conference selection Jamont Gordon. At over 17 points, six boards, and four and a half assists per contest, Gordon is a handful for whoever is left to try and contain him for 40 minutes. The team I’ve got advancing to this round is the Florida Gators who lost to Mississippi State at home just 12 days ago. In that game neither team shot over 42% but the big difference was Jarvis Varnado who had seven blocks and 11 rebounds to help the Bulldogs salt away the win. Seeing as that game was in Florida, Gordon had one of his worst nights of the year, and State was still able to come away with the win, I’ve got to like them to move on to the SEC semi’s to face the winner of Ole Miss and Kentucky.
The last game on Friday will see the surprising Kentucky Wildcats and the Mississippi Rebels. Everyone is aware of how awful the Wildcats were to start the season. Kentucky was at one time left for dead but they now seem to be one win from locking themselves up a spot in The Big Dance, if they aren’t already in. When these two teams met on February 27th Kentucky raced out to a 17 point halftime lead and ended up holding on for a four point home win. These are two of the tougher teams in the league and this game would be a very physical contest if things play out as I have them. I give the Rebels the slight edge outside of the state of Kentucky as they move on to meet their instate rival Miss St Bulldogs.
After a busy couple days the picture will start to clear up on Saturday. At 1:00 PM the semi finals would get under way with the No. 1 seed taking on the No. 2 seed in the top half of the bracket. This matchup would really favor the Vols who pounded Arkansas earlier in the year in Knoxville. Jujuan Smith is one of the better defenders in the SEC and he’d get the assignment of guarding Sonny Weems. Each of these teams is very athletic but the Razorbacks just aren’t as talented or as deep. If these teams face each other, I like Tennessee to advance to the SEC finals.
The instate battle between Ole Miss and Mississippi State would wind down Saturday evening in the SEC. These rivals have split their games this season with each team winning at home. Each of these teams has been playing well down the stretch, but Bulldogs are the more talented team on each side of the floor. Having the great ball handler as well as the best shot blocking threat in the SEC gives Miss St an edge here. I expect the two No. 1 seeds to meet in the conference Finals.
The SEC Conference Tournament should be as entertaining as ever this year with a few teams playing for their NCAA Tournament lives, a couple coaches working to keep their jobs, and a team going for one of the four No. 1 seeds. No less than five teams (Tennessee, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Arkansas) are a threat to cut down the nets in Atlanta this season.
Bracket:
http://www.secsports.com/doc_lib/bkc_2008_bracket.pdf
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Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
