[Illusion]

A rare Friday evening Big East game to bet on. What are your thoughts on this one? My initial lean is Marquette, but wanted to get everbodies thoughts first.

[EaglesPhan36]

If Fields is back for Pitt which I have read is a possibility, I might lean to Pitt & the pts. I think the better play might be the under though and not a side.

[buztah]

Marq in a rout. Marq owns Pitt in Wiscy and even if Fields is back he won't be 100% his first day back. He'll need a game or two or three to find the rythymn. Marq could even take out Pitt at home with a 100% healthy Fields as this Marq team can play ball when they turn it on and you can be sure they will tonight, pal.

[Steal2ndNotCars]

I agree I have to take Marq in this one. Pitt hasn't beaten anyone on the road that is that impressive. I don't know if it will be a rout so I would be more prone to taking the money line here.

[awhitejackson]

Marquette -4...Got to take the home teams almost always this year in Big East....Taking ML too is not a bad idea

[louisvillekid]

i like the Golden Eagles, my .02

[mofome]

im leaning towards marq at this point, got to look at it a bit more.

[Junkyard Dog]

marquette is streaky at times, but flat out nasty at home i think they cover this

[EaglesPhan36]

Marquette 12-1 SU at home, but only 3-5 ATS. BY the way I am passing on this game totally, but throwing in the opposing viewpoint.

[pvcpipe]

like you said in the first post, i'm just glad there's something besides ivy league tonite (other than nba, of course).

[WestsidePete]

Marquette -2 (bought pts)
Marquette ML

[Louisvillekid1]

Ill have a write up in a hour

[MOMONEY]

Ill have a write up in a hour

You got that write up yet LVKID? Interested in seeing who you like.

[greek]

Marq-5

[Louisvillekid1]

You got that write up yet LVKID? Interested in seeing who you like.

Sorry forgot to post it in here, posted in my big east thread.

Friday

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS 19-5 MARQUETTE EAGLES 17-6
February 15, 9:00 PM | Bradley Center

Jamie Dixon just continues to impress me with the job he has done with this team. I just can't say enough good things about this guy dealing with those injuries to Mike Cook and LeVance Fields. LeVance will be back shortly, possibly tonight, but its going to take him a few games to get his endurance back up.

The Panthers parlayed their buzzer beating win over WVU into a 21 point smashing of the Providence Friars. Pitt has a brutle next three games ahead of them. After this road game tonight they travel to play the IRISH and then return home to play Louisville. Sam Young has really been special this season avg over 17ppg and just under 7 boards.

Marquette is fresh off one of their best performances of the year in a 25 point rout of Seton Hall on the road. This team has already gotten through the tough part of their schedule and should pick up some wins to close out the regualar season.

The Golden Eagles are starting to get their act together, and playing well on both ends of the floor. Dominic James is now healthy and starting to attack the basket more. Jerel McNeal is one of the best Defensive guards in the country and is really going to cause pitt problems. Lazar Haywood continues to step up his game. This kid can really ball leading the team in scoring and rebounding.

These teams are very similar. Both teams play solid defense and they know how to share the basketball. Marq is going to struggle to stop Sam Young, but the key is going to keep a defender on Ramon at all times. He can really stroke it from deep , but Marq has quick guards and play good perimiter defense. Lazar Haywood is going to be tough to stop because there is so much focus on their other guards. He gets alot of open shots and is very active on the glass.

I think Pitt is going to keep this one close due to the inside play of Sam Young. However i think they might not make a point to go inside until the second half. The crowd is going to be rocking and Marq is going to come out firing on all cylinders.

Score Prediction: 67 - 62

Play Marq -2.5 (-115) 1st half

Lean on the under, but this game could be close late and im not going to chance it.

[regularguy]

Marquette -4.5

[MoneySportsGuy]

I really like Pittsburgh I know Pitt was good earlier then kinda slipped a bit but Marquette just doesnt impress me much.

I'm taking Pitt +5.5 I know Marquette is home but these Big East games always play close. No matter what going to be awesome to watch.

Goodluck everybody

[LT Profits]

I could have had Under 138 at Bookmaker tonight between 5:30 and 6:30 ET, but I missed the boat.

Here is the Pomeroy projection:


Matchup: Pittsburgh (19-5, 7-4 Big East) at Marquette (17-6, 7-5), 9:00 p.m. EST, ESPN
Rankings: Pittsburgh, #26 in Pomeroy Ratings (7th of 16 in Big East); Marquette, #14 (3rd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Marquette, 71-65 in 65 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 24%
Prospectus: The key to this game could be Marquette's offensive rebounding percentage, as evidenced by the Game Plan correlation data for both teams. Before examining that data, however, several caveats need to be listed, as the effectiveness of the Game Plan correlations are limited by two major factors. On one hand, every college basketball season,especially an incomplete one, is a small statistical sample, and one therefore must be cautious before putting too much meaning or validity into statistical relationships that might emerge in such a limited number of games. On the other hand, each team's season is broken up into two major components--non-conference and conference play--and in the Big East the non-conference schedule is generally much easier than the conference schedule. The Game Plan correlations don't take this schism into account, and because they represent the season as a whole, can potentially misrepresent how a team is scoring or defending against its conference foes.

Having said all that, the most interesting correlation on Pittsburgh's Game Plan is the +0.59 between opponents' offensive rebounding percentage and Pittsburgh's defensive efficiency. This figure means that as the offensive rebounding percentage of its opponent has gone up, Pittsburgh's defensive efficiency has also gone up--i.e., gotten worse (a correlation of 1 would mean that all the variation in defensive efficiency was explained by the change in opponent offensive rebounding percentage). You'd expect this relationship between offensive rebounding and a loss of defensive efficiency, of course, but the correlation between the two factors for Pittsburgh is a good deal stronger than for most teams, and is statistically significant with 99 percent confidence. Therefore, one can reasonably conclude that Pittsburgh has been hurt well more than most teams by second-chance opportunities this season. Besides a rise in opponents' eFG%, rising opponent offensive rebounding percentage has been the second most important factor in explaining why Pittsburgh has struggled on defense when it has.

Marquette is just the sort of team that could hurt the Panthers on the offensive glass. The Golden Eagles are a strong offensive rebounding squad, ranking 25th in the nation with a 37.9 percentage. Not only that, but in looking at Marquette's Game Plan, one finds that offensive rebounding percentage has a correlation of +0.51 to Marquette's offensive efficiency, a positive relationship that is significant with 95 percent confidence. The correlations reveal that hitting the glass on offense has been the second most important factor contributing to Marquette's offensive efficiency, behind eFG%. This relationship is the exact inverse of Pittsburgh's defensive profile. Based on these figures, it can be concluded that Marquette should be able to seriously impact the game if it can rebound well on offense, as that factor will contribute more to its own offense than most teams get from offensive boards, and hurt Pittsburgh's defense more than most teams are hurt by offensive boards.

One of the most important individual matchups in the game, then, could very well be the battle for rebounds between Marquette's 6'10" Ousmane Barro (11.4 offensive rebounding percentage) and Pittsburgh's 6'7" DeJuan Blair (24.7 defensive rebounding percentage). The Panthers are an even stronger offensive rebounding team than Marquette, however, with Blair ranking fifth in the nation in that category, so Pittsburgh might also be able to turn the tables on a weak defensive rebounding Golden Eagles team. The other important story from this game is the probable return of Panthers point guard Levance Fields from a broken left foot. In 12 games before he got hurt, the 5'10" junior had a strong 115.7 offensive rating and led the team with a 35.4 assist rate, which would rank in the top 30 nationally if he had enough minutes to qualify.


Explanations for the detailed stats used can be found at kenpom.com

[MoneySportsGuy]

Thanks for that post LT appreciate it.
I made a mistake and bet the under total at 136 I meant to bet the over haha now not sure if my book will let me make bet for the over because I would think that is suspicious to them haha

[WestsidePete]

Go Marquette!!
Marquette -2
Marquette ML
Marquette -141
Marquette 1st half -3
PITT/MAR under 63 1st half

[MoneySportsGuy]

nice job Westside I should have done that I was on Pitt +3 half and was thinking about under 1st half but layed off

[regularguy]

Wow. Marquette looked really good tonight. Some very nifty passing. Al Mcguire would be proud.