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Mizzou +2
The Texas Longhorns are not the Longhorns they used to be. They are led by D.J. Augustine who is averaging 20.5 points a game to go along with 6.1 assists. Texas sits in the number 13 spot in the top 25 rankings and boasts a 13-2 overall record. Texas had a 1 point loss to Wisconsin and a 6 point loss to Michigan State on the road. The Longhorns average 80.5 points a game (29th) and have the 71st ranked defense that holds teams to 63.1 points a game. Missouri has been a perfect 9-0 at home this season. The Tigers average 82.1 points per game (19th) and allow teams to score an average of 66.8 points a game on them, (141st). Missouri has a very balanced offensive attack with 5 players averaging double digits each game. Their bench production goes well down the list, almost 11 players deep. In their last 4 home games Missouri has averaged a total of 89 points per game. Texas has covered the last four meetings in Missouri but will be in for a shock today when the Tigers pull the upset. A balanced attack of offense will keep the Tigers equal with the Longhorns for the majority of the game. With the home crowd advantage I expect Missouri to step it up late and get the win by a few points. Take the home dog Tigers today!
Texas A&M -20
The Colorado Buffaloes are scoring an embarrassing 64 points a game. However, their defense has played great…against bad teams. The only big challenge for the 8-6 Buffaloes was the Stanford Cardinal coming to town and winning 67-43. Stanford has the 8th ranked defense in the league and as Colorado has shown all year, they can not beat teams with a good defense. This afternoon the Buffaloes will be in Texas A&M to take on the Aggies and their 12th ranked defense in the nation. Not only can the Aggies hold teams to less then 56 points a game, they score an average of 77 points on offense, a terrible mismatch for any team. They convert on other teams mistakes and missed shots, this season they have shot a team combined 51.3% from the field and 38.5% from beyond the arc, (Ranked 5th and 52nd respectively.) Although 20 is a big number, the Aggies should easily win this game by 25-30 points. Colorado can not match them on either side of the ball and will simply be over powered by the 20th ranked team in the country on their home court. Take the Aggies minus the points.
Texas Tech +6
The Texas Tech Red Raiders may have one of the most overlooked defensive units in the entire nation. Ranked 49th in the NCAA Texas Tech is holding teams to 60 points or less on average. They are managing to score over that 70 point barrier each game but they just have not been able to close out games. They lost to Stanford by 1 point, they blew a late lead to Butler. No one is really sure what happened to them against Centenary as they lost by 4. When the Red Raiders are pumped up to play, they can really bring it. Today they are on national tv against Big 12 Rival, Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are middle of the pack in scoring and defense. They are ranked 114th scoring 72.6 points a game and 111th on defense allowing 66.7 points a game. They are not particularly deep but play an up-tempo type of game when they have to. I love the Red Raiders in this one plus the points. Texas Tech is going to be fired up and needs a big win to avoid being in the basement when it comes to Big 12 basketball. Take the Red Raiders plus the points!
UNC -19.5
Coming into the game the North Carolina Tar Heels sit at 16-0 and are the unanimous choice for number one in the country. North Carolina has the second best offense scoring 92.1 points a game! However, defensively they have been struggling; teams have been able to put up 71 points a game against the Tar Heels. Led by a strong group of seniors the Tar Heels are pumped up to host rival NC State Wolfpack. NC State has the 128th ranked offense that averages 67.3 points a game. Opposite of the Tar Heels the Wolfpack can play strong defense. NC State allows teams to put up an averaged of 61.3 points per game. This stat is slightly misleading due to the fact that the top teams on the NC State schedule so far were Cincinnati and Davidson who both easily broke the 75 point mark. North Carolina will be too much for the Wolfpack to handle, I really like the Heels to get a cover late in this game. Also look out for a big first half from North Carolina.
Houston +2
The Arizona Wildcats have been weak on the road this entire season. So far they have posted a 1-3 mark with the visitor tag applied to them. Today they are in Houston to take on the 11-2 Oilers who are a perfect 9-0 at home this season. The Oilers are quietly putting up great numbers offensively scoring 80 points a game compared to the 65 teams are scoring against them. Houston has an averaging winning margin of 15.45 points at home in their past 8 games. With Arizona coming off a draining loss to rival Arizona State the Houston Oilers are fresh and ready to attack. Arizona is scoring 73.5 points per game while holding teams to 66.7 a game on defense. I do not expect this Arizona team to get their second road win this season today in Houston. Jerryd Bayless is finally back in the lineup and this may have shaken up the chemistry the team was building without him. Players who stepped up to cover his loss do not need to step up anymore and play with less and less heart. The Oilers gym will be packed with local fans watching their team get a shot at a top 25. I like the Oilers to cover and win outright.
Vandy -1
Going against what seems to be the trend of the day, I am going to take a small road favorite in the following game. Kentucky is always going to be a great bet at home, but this afternoon they fact the number 12 ranked Vanderbilt team that is an absolute offensive powerhouse. The Commodores are averaging 86.8 points per game. They have the best 3 point shooting percentage in the Nation converting on over 44% of their attempts. They have the ability to bury teams quick no matter where the game is located. The Kentucky defense that is ranked 107th in the nation will have trouble slowing down the Commodores today. They let teams score and average of 66 points per game and have trouble with fouls. The Wildcat post players always seem to be lingering around the foul out mark which does not allow them to play as physical. Against a quick run and gun Vandy team, that is going to be a huge factor. The Wildcats are not a big scoring threat. They average over 72 points per game. I think Vandy can win this game very easily by 5+ points and get the cover. The line looks like its set up for people to jump on Vandy, and personally I love it. Ill back the 16-0 Commodores in this game.
Virginia Tech -4
Another undefeated home team giving up less then 5 points to a road team that has not proven itself this season. The Maryland Terps come into this game only playing 1 of their 16 games this season on the road. They sit at 1-0… The Virginia Tech Hokies are 9-6 overall this season and are 7-0 at home. Taking the 5 point home court rule, I would have to say the Hokies are a better team on a neutral court. Virginia Tech has the 15th ranked defense in the league and holds teams below that key 60 point mark. They also have teams shooting percentages way below the average at 37.8%. Virginia Tech doesn’t score massive numbers of points but they win by big numbers by holding there team to the absolute minimum. Maryland and their 127th ranked offense does not pose as much of a threat to the superior defense today. I think this game will fall under the total with the Hokies getting the cover by 3-6 points.
Tennessee -6
The Tennessee Volunteers are posing to be an early threat for the Final Four. I know its only January but the way these guys have played this year has blown me away. Tennessee is scoring 87.2 points a game and holding teams to 69. They have four players averaging over 10 points per game with the odd starter out leading the team in assists. Wayne Chism is proving to be a force both defensively and offensively. Chism is grabbing 6 rebounds a game and averaging 9.5 points per contest. The Volunteers have 12 players on their roster that average over 13 minutes of playing time per game. This will really wear on a team come the late stages of the game. Today they travel to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks. Alike Tennessee the Gamecocks rely on their scoring rather then their defensive play. South Carolina is averaging 77.6 points per game offensively but they have not been able to keep teams under 70 points a game this season. Not nearly as deep or two way efficient the Gamecocks should get it handed to them by Tennessee tonight. The Vols roll by double digits.
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