In my writeup on Santa Clara on Thursday, I mentioned that Montana is an OK team. On Friday, I'll put a bet on them.
Montana is poised to win the Big Sky Conference championship this year and return to the NCAA tournament, where they upset Nevada in the first round in 2006. Montana returns four starters from the pretty good team they had last season. They have three players who score in double figures: 6-9 junior Jordan Hasquet (13.7), 6-2 senior Matt Martin (12.8), and 6-1 sophomore Cameron Rundles (10.5). They are strong inside, with all-conference players Hasquet and Andrew Strait, easily the best inside combo in the Big Sky. Also, Rundles is a good point guard. With a year of experience under his belt, he should prove to be a bright spot at point, and should be a factor for them this season. He was the only Montana player named to the all-tournament team in Spokane last weekend.
Montana has a 5-2 record after wins over Air Force (59-57) and Mississippi Valley State (69-62) at a tournament in Spokane over the weekend. They blew out Colorado State in their opener. Their only two losses are to very good, and ranked, Washington State and Gonzaga teams. In the Washington State game, they were only down by 2 at the half, and they were competitive well into the second half.
Wayne Tinkle is Montana's coach. It's his second year. He's 22-17. If you're gonna go through life with the name "Tinkle," you gotta be tough.
This is a very solid team, playing at home on Friday night on plenty of rest.
Cal State Fullerton is going to Missoula after being crushed at Arizona (65-91) just two days ago. With that loss they are 3-1, with wins over CS Bakersfield, CS LA, and Southern Utah. CS Fullerton is not a bad team -- they will likely finish in the top half of the Big West Conference, but I feel they are in a bad spot tonight. This is a tough road trip for them, playing teams better than them with only a day of rest in between. Also, they are without a key player: senior forward Scott Cutley (ankle injury). They’ll seriously miss Cutley at Montana.
Montana has an edge in most statistical categories -- especially on the defense side. Montana is a very good rebounding team, outrebounding everyone they’ve played except the Zags. It's especially notable that Montana got one more rebound than Washington State in that loss. CS Fullerton is going to get few second chance shots, and at the other end Montana is going to make a living on put-backs.
CS Fullerton does have a better team shooting percentage from 3-point range than Montana (41.4% to 38%), but I’m not too bothered by that, for two reasons: Montana does a pretty good job defending against the 3-point shot (holding opponents to 31%), and, on offense, Montana does not really rely on the 3 pointer (however, the two Montana guards who should be shooting 3's do shoot over 40% from beyond the arc).
I'm not a big trend guy, but I think there is one that is worth mentioning: CS Fullerton is 1-14 ATS over the last three years against teams with winning records. They will be 1-15 after this one.
I don’t see the Titans staying with the Grizzlies. Montana -8.
(By the way, I actually got this bet at -7.5. When I wrote this, I thought it was going to be -8. You may want to bet it early. It is getting bet about 83% on Montana. This line might move.)
Excellent write-up. I looked at this a long time....and with hesitancy went with Fullerton, only because the line moved to 8.5. I think Fullerton can at least hang with them.
This is an interesting game as I looked hard at this one. To begin the season, I had Montana as a potential big time sleeper because they returned 4 of their top 5 leading scorers. I must say though they have disappointed me with their play but in particular their center Andrew Strait. As a sophomore, he averaged 16.6 PPG. His junior year it dropped to 15 PPG. This year, his senior season he is only averaging 8.6 PPG. If you look more closely at the numbers, he is playing 6 less minutes per game than last year which has led to 4 less shot attempts per game. He is the best player on this team and I can't figure out what is going on. With him not on his "A" game hurts especially because they have very little depth. Only 3 others see more than 15 MPG and only one of those is averaging more than 5 PPG. They don't have a "spark" off the bench, thus relying on their starters to produce almost all of the scoring.
Ok to make a long story short, Montana by all means should cover this game. They were actually trailing at half in their last game to Mississippi Valley St (who has lost to Ole Miss by 34, Pittsburgh by 33, Creighton by 30, at home to N Arizona by 9, Air Force by 18, and Washington St by yes 45). So to play so poorly against a really bad team has raised concerns in my mind. To cover against Fullerton, they will have to step up the defense big time and play more consistently on offense. To me this is a no play, BOL if you decide to play them as they need to start playing better before I'll lay the points with them.
Thanks for the info, Ballin. I like your frank input. You articulated the problems perfectly. I already have a bet on Montana at -7.5, and feel pretty good about it. Fingers crossed ....
Ouch. And, double ouch. When I get a bright idea and start a thread, and it bombs, I feel worse about leading people wrong than I do about losing the frikkin' money. Back to the drawing board.
no worries Reg. all you can do is post the best play and state why you think it is the best play to make. A capper can only inform on what he thinks will happen given the information he is provded. If you let the losses effect you they will weight on your mind and eventually keep you from pulling the trigger on games you think you are "confident" about in the future. Stick to your system of predictions and forget yesterday. New day, new games, new picks. Best of luck bro!
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Montana -8 v. CSU Fullerton
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