[regularguy]

Maybe some of you have noticed that I like to watch the western mid-majors. Especially the WAC. Also, the Mountain West and West Coast.

I am a little bit of a Nevada fan, but I try not to let it affect my picks. (Hell, I lost 2 units tonight betting against Nevada's football team.) I thought I'd take a few minutes to pass on what I know about Nevada's basketball team, and what I'm thinking about them this weekend.

I try to contribute here when I think I can. Do with this what you wish. It's a long post. Skip it if you don't feel like reading it.

By the way, I've been cold on the football side lately. Come to think of it, you might want to fade me. But here's what I'm thinking.

So ... I'm going to put a modest bet on Nevada to cover against Santa Clara. My book hasn't posted the line yet, but SBR is showing it at -7.5.

You probably know that Nevada is now without the all-American that took them to the tournament the last few years, Nick Fazekas (now with the Mavericks, not playing much). Marcelus Kemp is still at Nevada. He was awesome at times the last two seasons, and might have a big season coming up. When he gets hot, he gets very hot. Nevada has a great young big man, a sophomore named Javale McGee. He has great basketball sense. Both his parents were hoops people; his mother was a bit of a star in the lady's game. McGee has an amazingly long wingspan, and will be right at the top of the charts in the blocked shots column. He is always within dunking range. Nevada has another solid inside guy named Demarshay Johnson. Good rebounder and their leading assists guy, I believe. They have a sophomore wing guy named Brandon Fields -- very athletic, with an insane vertical jump, and now starting to score. They have a talented freshman at the point, Armon Johnson, from Reno (Hug High). He's the future. Great fun to watch. He can score. Nevada's offense is very balanced. Any of the starters can score 15 to 20 on a given night. Their defense has been a question mark, but showed improvement last game. Nevada has some OK depth -- I especially like a freshman from North Carolina named Malik Cooke off the bench. Nevada's recruiting has been excellent the last few years.

Mark Fox, the coach, is first rate. Fourth year. 81-18. 45-6 at home. Best record in WAC and NCAA tournament appearance in each of his three years as head coach. I believe that this is an important season for Fox. The team is really starting to reflect his recruiting. Without Fazekas, in my view, Fox is more free to coach. With Fazekas on the team, all strategy revolved around the star; this wasn't a bad thing, I guess, but I think it was constraining for Fox. Now, Fox can do what he needs to do, and he has the guns to do it. I say Nevada might be fun to watch this season.

(They play Cal at home in a few weeks, and they go to North Carolina around the holidays, so we will get to see them against some teams from some quality conferences.)

I don't watch Santa Clara as closely, but have done a little looking. I see they lost lots of players from last season, and they have a new coach. They have a veteran guard (Brody Angley) who appears to be the leader, and can play. They have a veteran underneath (John Bryant) who apparently has potential to be a dominant player, but he doesn't look very athletic to me. I read that the coach has been on him to get him to hustle more, and says he needs to lose 20-30 pounds (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...L&type=sports). That doesn't sound very good to me. The big guy's going to have to move real fast in this one, or he's going to be watching McGee slamming the ball on alleyoops from A. Johnson and Fields. Beyond those two guys, it looks to me like Santa Clara's lineup is pretty much unproven. The new coach might be good; this seems to be their strength.

Here's what some guy wrote about them in the local paper (San Jose Mercury News): "Outlook: SCU was picked to finish fourth in the WCC preseason poll, which seems a bit generous given whom the Broncos must replace. The combination of an inexperienced team and a new coaching staff could make for some rough going. Another 20-win season seems unlikely." (http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_7383061?source=rss) That doesn't sound very good to me.

Santa Clara is 2-0, with both victories over lesser division schools. Ever hear of Simpson University? How about Cal State-Monterey Bay?

Nevada had a rough opener away against a good Central Florida team. They lost by three (and lost ATS). Then Nevada had a strong win (and covered) on the road at California Irvine, a decent team perhaps. Nevada has rival UNLV away after Santa Clara, but they get a nice full week to prepare for that.

This is Nevada's home opener. Reno is psyched about this team. It's going to be loud.

I think that the loss of Fazekas, and, for that matter a good guard named Ramon Sessions (now in the NBA), has been the national story and that is depressing the lines a little. The locals know that this is still a good basketball team. It's hard to get good tickets.

I am thinking Nevada might just come uncorked this evening. It's always hard to tell what's going to happen in college hoops, especially this early, but I just don't see the Santa Clara team staying with Nevada all the way down the stretch. Even if Nevada gets cold shooting, and is not at its best defensively, I say McGee and D. Johnson will have a big night underneath. A. Johnson is a local hero, and is going to be feeling it big time. Fields is going to be fine -- you'll see some moves there. And Kemp's the man. I'm betting on Nevda to cover.

Good luck this weekend.

[manny24]

great write-up! thanks for the info and good luck regularguy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like a good pick. GL!

[regularguy]

Looks like I'll have to lay 9. I still will have a play on Nevada in this one. I believe these two teams are in different leagues.