Just wanted to put out a feeler regarding the UT-USC hoops game tomorrow. Personally, as a completely unabashedly biased UT fan, I cannot discuss this game with any level of true rationality. I guess my main question for you USC fans/followers is this: will Floyd try to man up Gibson on Durant or will he play some version of a zone (box & 1) that is specifically geared towards stopping Durant? Personally, I hope he employs the zone, paying special attention to Durant. Hell, if he scouts Rick Barnes well, he'll see that in the last 2 games (against Kansas in the Big XII championship, and against NW St.) Durant disappeared for large stretches of the second half, due in large part to Barnes' steadfast refusal to run plays designed to get Durant open. Against Kansas, Durant attempted only 2FG's in the last 12:48 seconds. When he needed a game tying 3 to force OT, it was Augustin that took the trey. Against NM ST., Durant went 8 minutes without a FG or FT attempt. During both stretches, TX blew considerable dd leads, only managing to win against NM ST thanks to a 25-26 FT shooting performance.
So, you know where I stand with Barnes... And, while I hate to wager against my own team, and probably will refrain from the game altogether, I find it highly probable that USC beats TX, simply based on the coaching matchup. In my opinion, Barnes is one of the worst game managers but possibly an even worse scout of opposing teams. I'm just picturing SoCal in the Box and One and Barnes force-feeding Durant the ball, when instead, he should be running Abrams up and down the baseline, letting D.J Augustin break down the zone, all the while using Durant as sparingly as he's unconscionably used him in the past. I know that sounds nuts, but now that Barnes has been getting skewered by the Austin media elite for only getting Durant 13 FG attempts against NM St., I feel as though he will absolutely forcefeed Durant, regardless of the D-scheme thrown at him. I think UT matches up well against SC at every position (though they may have trouble with Young) and i think they have a clearly more-talented team. But, I see a team that should have won the Big XII championship and been a 3 seed, only laying 2.5 to a USC team that beat a woefully mismanaged Arkansas team... Stan Heath is right there with Barnes in terms of preparedness, and that's scary bad. OK, enough of my ranting here. I'll turn it over to you guys and your opinions... As of now, I can't touch the side in this game, wouldn't find any value on either ML (if the spread were more like 5-6, then I'd lay a tad on the USC ML, but right now there's no value). I don't really like the total either at 147. I'd lean Under, but with no real basis. i don't like teasing either team. I hate this game for all gambling purposes, basically. Still, I want to open a dialog on this game...
I'm staying away from this game. I would give SC a slight advantage because I feel they are a more complete team, and as you mentioned Baba, Tim Floyd can outcoach Barnes in his sleep. That being said, Durant is obviously fully capable of exploding for 40 and dominating the game, and I think Augustin is the second best guard in the country behind Law. This is the matchup I was most looking forward to since the brackets were first announced. Personally, I won't be betting this one as I feel there is far more value in the rest of the games on tomorrow's card.
Everyone I talk to is taking USC here, and to be honest, I just don't see it. I think having only one day to prepare actually minimizes the coaching disadvantage for Texas - not that Floyd is anything special, but he is certianly 10x better than RB - and there's no way USC could have looked past Arkansas to prepare for this game.
Gibson has absolutely 0% chance of stopping Durant. His knee is hurt and he isn't quick enough. Smilin' Gabe is too slow to stay with Augustin. If Floyd plays man defense, Texas will win by 15+. The only solution is either a straight zone or a Box and 1, with Young on Durant.
Interesting takes... Yeah, I feel the Augustin-Pruitt matchup is the one that is the biggest mismatch. If SC goes straight zone, I'm not sure how they'll be able to stop Augustin from breaking the zone down, particularly if Abrams is on. They'd have to play a fairly expanded zone, as they couldn't go soft on Durant, Abrams or Augustin, unless they want to take their chances in a long-distance shootout. If they play a loose zone, then I like James flashing in and hitting a steady stream of 12-15 foot jumpers. With all the attention paid to the aforementioned trio, James should find ways to carve out simple lanes for open jumpers. And, as he proved against A&M, he's fully capable of hitting those. Then again, knowing Barnes, he'll have Atchley out there for the majority of the time and ignore James altogether, despite the obvious matchup problems that James would present. If USC plays a box and one with Young on Durant (which I think they will do), I worry about Young;s stamina on the offensive end. They'll need 18+ from him to compete. See, I agree with all of you (Razz, rjt and bside) but I see that -2.5 line and get the shivers... I'd feel more comfortable laying 4. It just seems like a lame line to me, and I see covers has TX as its most popular bet right now, with 78% of bettors favoring TX (ah, just noticed they have the line at 3 in some places (including Pinny), now). Ah, I've got to have some action on that game... Just not sure what to play.
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