[The HG]

What are your opinions on the game against Southern Illinois? Do you think the S Ill style will present a challenge to KU? Do you think KU could lose outright? Your thoughts will be much appreciated.

[Dbldown11]

im a big SIU fan, and I wish i felt they had a good chance, but while my heart sais they do, my mind tells me that Kansas will be able to run up and down the floor. Southerns defense will shut them down more than most, but i dont think it will be enough. The only chance they have is if they can put up a lot more points than they average. If I was going to make a play it would be SIU + the points, but since im not sure if im using my heart or my mind for that im staying away from the game, and just gonna enjoy watching it

[bigboydan]

I think SUI will be a thorn in Kansas side in this game.

[TheGambler]

Because we invest money in these games, as a gambler I find it more comforting to let others know when I don't have a solid read on a game. From what I have looked at so far, I am not able to break this game apart and favor one side or the other. Based on this, I do not like this game for the jayhawks and even more than that, i don't feel comfortable telling people where to put their money on this game. On the KU games I've bet on this year, I've only missed 2 out of 18. If this were regular season, I would have to pass on this game. Sorry for the disappointing news but no strong read on this game. I wish every game was as easy as the Kentucky game!!!

[The HG]

Not disappointing news at all, thanks for your analysis! It sure will be an interesting game to watch, one of the most in the tourney. For sure, Southern Illinois will just try to slow things down, play as tough D as possible every second, and hope to still be in the game in the last minute and somehow pull out a win with good free throw shooting and a few lucky bounces. More likely, their strategy will work great only in the first half - I wouldn't be surprised if they were leading 25-23 at the half or something like that. But then they won't be able to keep up their defensive intensity and then Kansas will go on a 15-2 run or something like that, and probably win by 10.

But I agree it's a real tough game to forecast. The main factor to me is the stamina of Southern Illinois. Can they go full intensity the whole game? or just for a half or 3/4?

[TheGambler]

I did a lot of research on games where KU has played teams which have a similar style to SIU. After looking at several of these matchups, the most common theme was that KU struggles in the first half when playing against SIU style teams. I was going to lay off of this game completely but based on what i'm seeing, I will be playing the 1st half spread on SIU +5. I find quite a bit of value in this line based on what I have researched. I would not consider this as strong a play as both Texas games or the Kentucky game but very close to them.

[BuddyBear]

Any lean on the O/U Gambler?

[TheGambler]

Sorry BB, I am even more confused on that line!!!

[Checkerboard]

Any lean on the O/U Gambler?

BuddyBear, do you have a total lean in this one?

[bigboydan]

I'm not double B. However, I happen to really like the under in this game. I feel we will see a lot of ball controlled offense from SIU in this game, and I feel that will knock KU of there game somewhat.

[Wheell]

Kansas has scored in the 80's or above lately. I remember a quote from Bobby Knight in 1987 after they beat UNLV in the final 4: I thought about doing a slowdown but then I realized we would score 60 and they would score 80. SIU might hold themselves to 55 but Kansas under 70?

[BuddyBear]

BuddyBear, do you have a total lean in this one?

I have no strong lean per se on the O/U although I would lean ever so slightly toward the under but the number shot up to 127 at pinnacle early this afternoon. However, an interesting stat, Kansas is 1-9 ATS when they score less than 70 points. Thus this sets up an interesting correlated parlay:

Parlay A: Kansas -9/Over 125.5
Parlay B: Southern Illinois +9/Under 125.5


This game is very very tough in my opinion. It may be best to pass on this game or find a way to include Kansas in a teaser b/c I can't see them losing this game.

Good luck Checkerboard.....BBD, you are also a double B since you have 2 B's in your name.

[bigboydan]

BBD, you are also a double B since you have 2 B's in your name.

Your right double B

[The HG]

I meant to reply to this earlier, and BuddyBear, you half beat me to it. I agree with your assessment of the correlation between S Ill and the under and Kansas and the over. I ALSO agree with The Gambler's assessment of a likely tight first half. Which sets up a nice value/correlated parlay play of S Ill +5 and under 58 for the 1H.

S Ill will no doubt give this game their absolute all, of course, and that is likely to be much more effective in the first half than the second. A look back at S Ill's games shows a pattern of very low 1Hs followed by a variety of low, medium, and high-scoring 2hs.

It will probably be tough for S Ill to maintain their slow-down, tough D intensity against a team like Kansas for the whole game, as they have been able to do vs lesser teams. But in the first half, they may well be able to, and in fact Kansas might play along, willing to go with the S Ill style in the 1H and let them burn themselves out.

If the game does go the S Ill +9/under 125.5 route, it is likely that the 1H will go that way as well. But if the game goes over and/or Kansas covers, there is still a very reasonable chance that the 1H will go S Ill and the under.

Of course, Kansas is a scary team, having completely dismantled teams like Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Kansas St, teams that tend towards the slow down/tough D style. But S Ill is an experienced team, and that is of key importance in the NCAAs. If they challenge every pass and movement in the 1H, it might well be 28-26 at the half, or something like that.

So I can see staying off this game, but if you're going to bet S Ill or the under, I'd recommend doing it 1H, and doing it as a parlay with the other due to the clear correlation.

It will definitely be and interesting game, no matter what. Kansas won't be taking S Ill lightly, and could easily be up by 20 at the half.

[The HG]

I found this article on S Ill's practice routines. This is one gonzo team. Should be a fun game to follow, either on TV or live stats.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news;_...yhoo&type=lgns

[babaoriley]

Not disappointing news at all, thanks for your analysis! It sure will be an interesting game to watch, one of the most in the tourney. For sure, Southern Illinois will just try to slow things down, play as tough D as possible every second, and hope to still be in the game in the last minute and somehow pull out a win with good free throw shooting and a few lucky bounces. More likely, their strategy will work great only in the first half - I wouldn't be surprised if they were leading 25-23 at the half or something like that. But then they won't be able to keep up their defensive intensity and then Kansas will go on a 15-2 run or something like that, and probably win by 10.

But I agree it's a real tough game to forecast. The main factor to me is the stamina of Southern Illinois. Can they go full intensity the whole game? or just for a half or 3/4?

So any 1st half action that sounds enticing? Salukis maybe?

[The HG]

Yes Baba, I put some on S Ill +5 1H, and a parlay with the under 58. While I am fully aware that Kansas could be up by 18 at the half, like 37-19, I still think there is value with the way I played it.

[TheGambler]

Hey Ganch HG, i'm thinking you and i cashed in pretty good on that first half. it's harder than hell to bet against your hometown team!! however, as long as i keep winning money i'm okay with it. already started doing my homework on the next KU matchup. I did a little more research assuming UCLA will win but I have plenty to look at if it turns out to be Pitt. I wish this KU team could play year round and I could just sit at home all week!! anyways, i'm glad you played the first half. even though KU won by 3 at half, if you take away the shot clock 2points, and if SIU would have scored on the last shot before half, we had this one won pretty easily. I'm glad you hit your unders as well. i did not touch the o/u. everyone at work today told me i was crazy thinking that SIU would be in the game at the end. I try to tell them that I know this KU team inside and out. Can't wait until Saturday!! I have about 30 guys/girls over to the house for a huge party. I better finish my research now!!! take it easy

[The HG]

Hey Gambler, it's been great getting your input and thinking out loud about all this, thanks for posting it on the board! Yeah I cashed with the side and with the parlay as well on it.

It's funny about the home team thing. There's nothing more valuable in capping than following a team you love very closely, but I guess it can be hard to bet against. It's like how no psychologist will be able to predict how a child is going to respond to situations better than the kid's parents. Me, I'd bet against my own freakin grandma if I thought there was +EV.

Anyway, getting down to business, sorry to say this, but I think there's value with UCLA on the moneyline vs KU. UCLA started at +2.5, now down to +2 with the ML around +115 to +120.

You yourself said Villanova would have been a tougher matchup for KU because of their guard play being able to break down the KU D, and I think you were right. I see UCLA as just like Nova, but better, and with more experience. I think UCLA should be at least 50% to win this game outright. What do you think??