Tar Heels and Tigers easy conference winners
By: Chance Harper
North Carolina and Memphis are both heavy favorites to capture the ACC and C-USA titles respectively in 2007, with each school being counted on to advance to at least the Elite Eight come tourney time in March. Picking a winner in the Big Ten, Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley is a little tougher.
The college basketball futures market is about to be inundated with options: over/unders and conference odds are on the verge of joining the now-familiar March Madness list. Which teams have the jam to take their conference titles? Here are five to watch in 2007-2008.
Tar Heels and Tigers easy conference winners
Atlantic Coast Conference: North Carolina
You won’t be going out on much of a limb picking the Tar Heels this year. North Carolina is the top favorite to win the Tournament at 5-1, bringing back most of the their key players from last year’s conference champions and Elite Eight squad.
This was already one of the best teams in the nation last year no matter how you slice it: 28-6 straight up in the regular season, 13-3 in the ACC, 21-14 against the spread (including the Tournament), third in RPI and first in the Pomeroy Ratings. Whatever toughness they lack inside with Brandan Wright going to the NBA won’t be exposed in the ACC--wait until the Tournament for that.
Big Ten: Michigan State
Michigan State or Indiana? The Hoosiers may be a more compelling bet to win March Madness at 22-1; however, the Spartans (15-1) appear to have the right stuff to survive the Big Ten haul.
MSU returns the entire starting five from last year’s team. True, they went 8-8 SU in conference play and barely got into the big dance, but the Spartans were 23-12 overall, 17-13 ATS and the No. 15 team in the Pomeroy Ratings, one spot ahead of Indiana. With Ohio State and Wisconsin both expected to tumble down the standings, it’s Michigan State’s conference to lose.
Conference USA: Memphis
Not much controversy here. The Tigers have been the cream of the C-USA crop three of the past four seasons. John Calipari is also returning all five of his starters, and with freshman sensation Derrick Rose joining the party, Memphis is 10-1 to win it all and the likely preseason No. 1 in the national polls.
Even if they don’t improve on their Elite Eight runs of the past two seasons, Memphis didn’t lose a single conference game last year and finished ninth in the Pomeroy Ratings. The next C-USA club was Houston at No. 89.
Atlantic-10: Xavier
The Musketeers don’t quite own the A-10 like Memphis does C-USA, but they’re close. Xavier was the top dog last year at 25-9 overall, 13-3 in conference action (tied with UMass), 17-13-1 ATS and a Pomeroy Rating of 45. UMass was second in the A-10 at No. 65.
There is plenty of volatility in this year’s ranks, and the Musketeers are not immune, losing Justin Cage and Justin Doellman. However, the addition of frosh phenom Dante Jackson on the wing should give the frontcourt duo of Drew Lavender and Stanley Burrell enough support to maintain Xavier’s annual March Madness berth--the X is 75-1 to win the whole shebang.
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Last year’s Salukis were the best of a very good collection of MVC teams that included Creighton, Missouri State and Bradley. But all three of those clubs have some rebuilding to do this year.
SIU, on the other hand, is adding four-star recruit Anthony Booker to a squad that already boasts the very talented trio of Randal Falker, Matt Shaw and Tony Boyle. They were good enough to go 29-7 overall and 15-3 in MVC action and 19-14-2 ATS on the season, and they came within three points of upsetting Kansas at the big dance.
One minor complaint: SIU was 'only' No. 28 in the Pomeroy Rankings despite a No. 7 RPI. Still, the Salukis are one of the strongest programs in the nation and a potential dark horse at 100-1 to win the national title. Mid-major? Hardly.
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Nice writeup Chance Harper... but your wrong!
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