1. 03-08-10 12:42 PM #1
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    Monday

    small card, can't wait to watch W&M game. we'll see if i still feel that way around 8:30.

    as i'm organizing my thoughts, here are my forecasts for the 3 early games and St Mary's/Zags. any thoughts/comments welcome.

    William & Mary (+9) vs Old Dominion (117.5) – ODU, 62-57 (NC)
    Fairfield (+8) vs Siena (138) - Siena, 73-67 (NC)
    Western Kentucky (-4.5) vs Troy (142) - Troy, 78-77 (U)
    St. Mary's (+3.5) vs Gonzaga (145) - Gonzaga, 75-67

    liking Troy, Gonzaga, WKY/Troy over best so far, but not entirely sold on any of them.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 03-08-10 12:57 PM #2
    Wolf40
    Wolf40's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-10
    Posts: 954
    Betpoints: 1

    Thats a problem I'm having I like some games but I can't pull the trigger!
    I'm with you on Fairfield and Gonzaga
    I was leaning Troy but history tells me WKY takes this one
    I also am leaning North Texas but line is scaring me
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 03-08-10 01:22 PM #3
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    forecasts for Sun Belt and Southern finals

    Appalachian State (+4.5) vs Wofford (134.5) - Wofford, 70-63
    Denver (+1) vs North Texas (126.5) - North Texas, 73-64

    as i see it, i've got 4 side that i like enough to consider playing. in order, i currently rank them:
    North Texas (line movement a little weird, but i've seen Denver play away from home this season)
    Troy
    Gonzaga
    Troy over

    now the hard part of deciding which to play...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 03-08-10 01:25 PM #4
    CappinTerp
    CappinTerp's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 9,648
    Betpoints: 1679

    I JUST bet the under 117 , but if the tribe its their 3 s, could spell trouble.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 03-08-10 01:32 PM #5
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    can't argue with the under there, cappin terp. i'm anticipating W&M keeps it close enough for some extra fouls to push it over. this is the biggest game in their history. if ODU gets a blow-out and eliminates extra FTs (i'd say there's 20+% chance of that), your under could be gold. similarly, if W&M keeps it a two-possession game in final 2 minutes and doesn't foul (about 20% of that as well), your under could also be gold. 1H under could also be nice, but 53 is a ridiculously small number.

    i'll be pulling for the Tribe to keep it close and protect your under play. if nothing else, you'll enjoy watching them take the air out of the ball from the start of the game. that WILL happen.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 03-08-10 01:48 PM #6
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    3* Gonzaga -4

    yes, this play is square as fk, but i'm locking it in now before it goes to -4'. can't help that i watched their first two meetings and saw two different levels of teams. St. Mary's has good numbers, but accumulated a good deal of them against the lesser teams on their schedule. and the notion that this game means more to St. Mary's than Gonzaga is nuts. remaining atop their perch in the WCC is as important to Gonzaga as going to the dance is to St. Mary's, so no way i can mark the Zags down when they will make it as an at-large regardless.

    North Texas line movement is giving me heartburn.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 03-08-10 02:09 PM #7
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    3* North Texas -1

    finally, bookmaker, betjam, Bodog follow greek to -1. that and the numbers are good enough for me, though think i'll keep it at 3* (was thinking 4* earlier). i have Mean Green by 9. Denver fouls way too much (-5.2 FT Diff; worst pom FT def rating in DI) and N Texas draws a ton of fouls (+6.5 FT diff; 3rd pom FT off rating in DI). that's almost a 12-point swing from the outset based upon style of play/Denver stupidity on defense. if Mean Green can contain Denver's 3-point shooting, their FT and board advantage should be more than enough to get the W.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 03-08-10 04:59 PM #8
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    updated card
    3* Gonzaga -4
    3* North Texas -1

    still looking for another side with at least 70% of the public on it to add to my square card, but i guess two super public plays is enough. if tonight's anything like Saturday, it'll work out swell.

    passing on Troy and WKY/Troy over. BOL to all tonight, and remember: be careful with Gonzaga. also, be careful talking smack to 2dabank. i know i'm not man enough to do it.

    almost forgot: GO TRIBE!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 03-08-10 06:54 PM #9
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    adding

    3* Siena 2H -8
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 03-08-10 08:22 PM #10
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    updated card
    3* Siena 2H -8 - WINNER
    3* Gonzaga -4
    3* North Texas -1

    Zags starting slow, just like KenPom said they would.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 03-08-10 08:48 PM #11
    capri5421
    capri5421's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-19-09
    Posts: 1,474
    Betpoints: 1

    Glad you won, did you watch the Siena/Fairfield ? That was a great game. No play's for me today, just couldn't feel it. I've been working on Tuesday card all day. I got an early play going.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 03-08-10 09:09 PM #12
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    Quote Originally Posted by capri5421 View Post
    Glad you won, did you watch the Siena/Fairfield ? That was a great game. No play's for me today, just couldn't feel it. I've been working on Tuesday card all day. I got an early play going.
    yeah, it was a great watch. little close on the wager, glad Siena took care of business in OT. Siena has had some tailor-made 2H bets in the conf tourney.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 03-08-10 09:27 PM #13
    capri5421
    capri5421's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-19-09
    Posts: 1,474
    Betpoints: 1

    Im all set for Tuesday, 1st play at noon.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 03-08-10 09:28 PM #14
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    Quote Originally Posted by capri5421 View Post
    Im all set for Tuesday, 1st play at noon.
    USF?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 03-08-10 09:51 PM #15
    settems90
    settems90's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-10
    Posts: 3
    Betpoints: 0

    ehhhhh not that good of picks
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 03-08-10 09:54 PM #16
    settems90
    settems90's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-10
    Posts: 3
    Betpoints: 0

    not that good of picks
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 03-08-10 10:26 PM #17
    BiffTFinancial
    BiffTFinancial's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-09
    Posts: 22,670
    Betpoints: 5368

    3* Siena 2H -8 - WINNER
    3* Gonzaga -4 - LOSER
    3* North Texas -1 - WINNER

    2-1 +2.7u.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | NCAA Basketball Betting | Next Thread »