1. 12-01-22 01:35 PM #36
    doubledime
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Broad strokes, there are two factors in predicting totals: pace and efficiency. For me, pace is the easiest to figure out. Over the years I have tweaked my pace analysis to the point where, barring OT, I am pretty accurate. So in calculating a range of predicted scores I use pace as a constant and efficiency as my variable. I use team points per possession performance to calculate a standard deviation for each team. From there I calculate efficiency to one standard deviation to the good and the bad.

    im sure my math could be better, but at some point the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. My old thread from last year is still on the first page, and I included a link to my model for this season earlier in the week. GL!
    Got to love that quote.

    This year I am just playing (not posting) Team Totals using KP's time of possession and adjusted efficiency. However you are 100% correct that the teams with contrasting tempos are difficult to handicap, therefore I just stay away from those games. Good luck this year.
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  2. 12-18-22 07:57 PM #37
    Fred The Hammer
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    Thought I'd revisit this bad boy.

    Youngstown State 10-1 Over with 7 straight Overs
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  3. 12-18-22 08:22 PM #38
    Fred The Hammer
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    Indiana State is another run-n-gun squad to watch. They're 8-4 Over, but one of the 4 was a 1H Over vs Drake. Then I hit them 1H Over vs Duquesne the other day. I think I'm 3-1 on their Overs

    Their KP is 95 offense/139 defense/20 tempo

    You give me a total under 70 1H and I'm leaning on it hard Over with the 20th tempo Sycamores involved, unless they're playing a turtle
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  4. 01-08-23 10:05 AM #39
    Fred The Hammer
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    I hope a few people noticed that yesterday the Youngstown State game had a total of 138. They had 54 at halftime! Easiest winner ever
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  5. 01-08-23 11:55 AM #40
    Volt
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    Hey Fred! Just ran across this thread. Looking forward to baseball season. Good luck today, bud
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  6. 01-10-23 09:04 AM #41
    Mrflip09
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    I agree to this. ...I been betting Indiana state this year with good results
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  7. 01-11-23 05:54 AM #42
    Dakota
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    Quote Originally Posted by Volt View Post
    Hey Fred! Just ran across this thread. Looking forward to baseball season. Good luck today, bud
    Has kenpom been beneficial for mlb?...any hints as to how to utilize it for cbb? ive had no luck...TIA>appreciate it
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