[HeeluvaGuy]

Long time no post. Gonna give this a shot again this season now that some normalcy has returned. For those who don't know me, here is my last full-season thread, which also has links to previous years: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ly-totals.html

I'm back with a newly revamped model, which will be kept here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

The model should be pretty self-explanatory, but feel free to ask questions. This season I added a range of possible scores to help handle some of the variance we see in offensive and defensive efficiency (Columns R through U). Here's how to read what I am playing, but I will also try to post the plays here daily:

A highlight in Column M indicates that the line is either below my lowest estimate (indicating an over play) or above my highest estimate (indicating an under play). I'm calling these "Out of Range" plays.

A highlight in Column O indicates that my total differs by 10 or more from the line.

Daily records are kept to the right of Column V, and cumulative totals are kept on the "Results" tab. Although I have tabs for days prior to 11/22, that is the date that I started keeping these records. (Before that I was testing things out.)

Here are today's plays. Times are Eastern. I doubt I will be doing write-ups like I have in the past. Not enough hours in the day...

Noon St Peter's/Providence o127.5 (BR) (sorry for past-posting this one - busy morning)
2:00 Northern Iowa/St Bonaventure o132 (Wynn)

2:00 Robert Morris/Davidson o138.5 (FD)

4:00 Lamar/Texas Tech o139 (DK)
4:00 Idaho State/Air Force o121.5 (FD)
7:30 Sacramento St/Arizona o142 (BR)

(I know some of these lines are stale. Typically I will post contemporaneously with placing the bets.)
BOL this season!

[doubledime]

Great to see you back. Hope all is well with you.

Always look forward to your plays, knowing just how well they are handicapped.

"contemporaneously"....I'm impressed.

[sunshine11]

I'm all ears. First one won easily. Second 2 are at a good pace to win.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Great to see you back. Hope all is well with you.

Always look forward to your plays, knowing just how well they are handicapped.

"contemporaneously"....I'm impressed.

All good here. Great to see you still around and posting winners. I have been working hard to get all of my handicapping down into this model to try to take out as much of the subjective (and more time consuming) handicapping out of my picks as I can.

Hope you have a great season.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm all ears. First one won easily. Second 2 are at a good pace to win.

Thanks for popping in. Every year has ups and downs, but it's definitely nice to start off a thread on a positive note. Hope to give you a reason to stick around.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Noon St Peter's/Providence o127.5 (BR) (sorry for past-posting this one - busy morning)
2:00 Northern Iowa/St Bonaventure o132 (Wynn)

2:00 Robert Morris/Davidson o138.5 (FD)

4:00 Lamar/Texas Tech o139 (DK)
4:00 Idaho State/Air Force o121.5 (FD)
7:30 Sacramento St/Arizona o142 (BR)

Season: 5-1 +3.9u (4-1 +2.9u if you take out the one that had already started)
Nov: 5-1 +3.9u

Back in a little while with today's picks.

[HeeluvaGuy]

11/28:

10:30a North Texas/Drake o125.5 (MGM)
Noon Bethune-Cookman/Seton Hall o135.5 (FD)
2:00 Citadel/South Carolina State u154.5 (BR)
9:00 Fresno St/California o121.5 (MGM)

[HockeyOtt1978]

Thanks for starting up a new thread this year. I have enjoyed your threads in past seasons. Best of luck to you this season!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks for starting up a new thread this year. I have enjoyed your threads in past seasons. Best of luck to you this season!!

Nice to see you still around, and thanks for the nice words!

[HeeluvaGuy]

11/28:

10:30a North Texas/Drake o125.5 (MGM)
Noon Bethune-Cookman/Seton Hall o135.5 (FD)
2:00 Citadel/South Carolina State u154.5 (BR)
9:00 Fresno St/California o121.5 (MGM)

Day: 2-2 -.2u
Thread: 7-3 +3.7u
Nov: 7-3 +3.7u

Got a little unlucky with the under. It finished regulation tied 77-77. I'm sure it won't be the last OT loss on an under. Fortunately got a little lucky late in the Fresno game and got over by half a point.

[HeeluvaGuy]

11/29

7:00 Iowa/Virginia o130.5 (MGM)
10:00 Tarleton/Gonzaga o137.5 (Caesar's)
10:00 Riverside/St. Mary's o120 (FD)

[HeeluvaGuy]

11/29

7:00 Iowa/Virginia o130.5 (MGM)
10:00 Tarleton/Gonzaga o137.5 (Caesar's)
10:00 Riverside/St. Mary's o120 (FD)

Day: 1-2 -1.2u
Thread: 8-5 +2.5u
Nov: 8-5 +2.5u

Frustrating loss in the St. Mary's game. Riverside didn't score for the last 5+ minutes in what was an 8-point game at the time. I think they missed their last 9 shots and two front-ends of 1 and 1s.

[HeeluvaGuy]

11/30

7:00 Presbyterian/Tennessee o129.5 (BR)
7:00 MD-Eastern Shore/UConn o133 (BR)
7:00 Davidson/Charlotte o130.5 (Caesars)
8:00 Northwestern St/Houston o138 (BR)

[matt711]

Good work!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good work!!

Eh. Just one good day really. Nice to see you around though. Nice to see some of the good guys still around.

[matt711]

Miss some old timers, T-Bone, LTA, Louisvillekid, , good to see u back this year!

[Fred The Hammer]

Glad you're back brother! Cbb totals are one of the things I live to bet (and win!).

Hit Indiana/Cuse Over live easily tonite. What a nutty game))

Early observations: Cuse is going to play A TON of Overs. Slow/white guys on defense but they can rain 3s as good as anyone. I think La Tech has gone Over every game. I've cashed multiple Wake Overs too but they needed OT last game. I just took Wake ML tonite. They're underrated somewhat imo.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Glad you're back brother! Cbb totals are one of the things I live to bet (and win!).

Hit Indiana/Cuse Over live easily tonite. What a nutty game))

Early observations: Cuse is going to play A TON of Overs. Slow/white guys on defense but they can rain 3s as good as anyone. I think La Tech has gone Over every game. I've cashed multiple Wake Overs too but they needed OT last game. I just took Wake ML tonite. They're underrated somewhat imo.

Glad to see you as well. This year I will probably be more model-dependent than ever. I spent a good bit of time on this in the offseason, and while it's early, I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing. Here's to a good season!

[HeeluvaGuy]

11/30

7:00 Presbyterian/Tennessee o129.5 (BR)
7:00 MD-Eastern Shore/UConn o133 (BR)
7:00 Davidson/Charlotte o130.5 (Caesars)
8:00 Northwestern St/Houston o138 (BR)

Day: 4-0 +4u
Thread: 12-5 +6.5u
Nov: 12-5 +6.5u

Caught a few breaks last night, and was very fortunate on my line in the Tennessee game. No room to spare there.

Back in an hour or two with plays for today.

[doubledime]

Day: 4-0 +4u
Thread: 12-5 +6.5u
Nov: 12-5 +6.5u

Caught a few breaks last night, and was very fortunate on my line in the Tennessee game. No room to spare there.

Back in an hour or two with plays for today.

Well done

[matt711]

Nice work, I caught a loss by a point, lol, can’t wait long on making a wager, lol….

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nice work, I caught a loss by a point, lol, can’t wait long on making a wager, lol….

Yeah, I have some buddies offline who had 130.5 on the Tennessee game and they have let me know about it. But honestly my closing line value hasn't been very good so far this season.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/1

7:00 Dartmouth/Vermont o121 (DK)
8:00 Albany/Kansas St o130 (Caesars)
10:00 San Diego/Fresno St o127 (BR)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well done

Thank you, sir. Long season though, and we always have our ups and downs. Hoping to have more of the former than the latter for the next few months.

[HeeluvaGuy]

One addition:

7:00 Villanova/Penn o137 (BR)

[Fred The Hammer]

I'll tail'em all small. Why not? Everyone loves a model even if it short circuits at some point. Streaky good you ride it. Lose & get off. Not hard to understand.

I'm on Coastal Carolina/S Carolina Over 66.5 1H. KenPom pace special. CC #103 and SC #40

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/1

7:00 Dartmouth/Vermont o121 (DK)
8:00 Albany/Kansas St o130 (Caesars)
10:00 San Diego/Fresno St o127 (BR)

One addition:

7:00 Villanova/Penn o137 (BR)

Day: 1-3 -2.3u
Thread: 13-8 +4.2u
Dec: 1-3 -2.3u
Nov: 12-5 +6.5u

Not the start to December that I hoped for. Ugly games.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/2

7:00 Northern Kentucky/Cleveland St o132 (Wynn)
8:00 Lamar/Mississippi St o133.5 (Wynn)
9:00 Portland St/Idaho St o131.5 (BR)

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/2

7:00 Northern Kentucky/Cleveland St o132 (Wynn)
:8:00 Lamar/Mississippi St o133.5 (Wynn)
9:00 Portland St/Idaho St o131.5 (BR)

Day: 1-2 -1.2u
Thread: 14-10 +3u
Dec: 2-5 -3.5u
Nov: 12-5 +6.5u


The late game was never very close, but the NKU/Cleveland St game was a tough pill to swallow. The teams combined to go 11-50 from three and the play lost by 2. It's a fine line...

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/3

8:00 Pitt/Virginia o113 (Wynn)

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/3

8:00 Pitt/Virginia o113 (Wynn)

Day: 0-0-1 --
Thread: 14-10 +3u
Dec: 2-5 -3.5u
Nov: 12-5 +6.5u

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/4

3:00 William & Mary/Davidson o138.5 (MGM)
4:00 Campbell/VCU o114.5 (Caesars)
5:00 Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Baylor o141.5 (MGM)
7:00 Northridge/Fresno o122 (BR)

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/4

3:00 William & Mary/Davidson o138.5 (MGM)
4:00 Campbell/VCU o114.5 (Caesars)
5:00 Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Baylor o141.5 (MGM)
7:00 Northridge/Fresno o122 (BR)

Day: 2-2 -.2u
Thread: 16-12 +2.8u
Dec: 4-7 -3.7u
Nov: 12-5 +6.5u

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/5

1:00 Fairfield/Niagara o126.5 (FD)
2:00 Detroit/UIC o139.5 (MGM)
2:00 Siena/St Peters o126.5 (FD)
6:00 Kansas St/Wichita St o127.5 (FD)
7:30 Ohio St/Penn St o130.5 (Caesars)

[HeeluvaGuy]

One addition:

4:00 Cal Poly/San Diego o123 (BR)