[QuantumLeap]

I was going to fade Cal today since they usually do horrible on the road so I dialed up their matchup. They played Washington who were 2-13 ATS including failing to cover their last 9 in a row so I stayed away from the game.

Washington blew away Cal. I guess they felt it was there chance to go out with a bang and beat someone at home. Maybe it was Senior Day who knows.

The point of this story is to not blindly bet bad teams.

So I decided to see who had gone 1-4 ATS or worse in their last 5 games or so and fed a query into the Sports Database.

The following have horrible ATS records since Feb 4.

G	w	l	p	School
3	0	3	0	CSNOR
4	0	2	2	POR
4	0	4	0	NMEXS
4	0	4	0	DEP
4	0	4	0	ARKPB
5	0	4	0	STO
5	0	4	1	QUINN
5	0	3	0	MONST
5	0	5	0	MCNST
5	0	4	1	DET
6	0	6	0	WINTH
6	0	6	0	AIRFC
6	1	5	0	SCSPAR
6	1	5	0	PITT
6	1	5	0	NAVY
6	1	5	0	MSTM
6	1	5	0	MISST
6	1	5	0	HAW
6	1	5	0	DRAKE
6	1	5	0	COL
6	1	5	0	CHASO
6	1	5	0	ARK
5	1	4	0	WGTON
5	1	4	0	VTECH
5	1	4	0	VCU
5	1	4	0	STM
5	1	4	0	SMU
5	1	4	0	SF
5	1	4	0	NORAL
5	1	4	0	MCHST
5	1	4	0	KST
5	1	4	0	KANST
5	1	4	0	JMAD
5	1	4	0	FLATL
5	1	4	0	COPST
5	1	4	0	COLST
5	1	4	0	CIN
5	1	4	0	CHARL
5	1	4	0	BGRN
5	1	4	0	ALCST

[QuantumLeap]

Just in case anyone wanted to know who was doing well lately in case you wanted to follow teams that might be needing to finish high in their conference or who might be on the bubble of getting a playoff bid, I have those numbers available here so I thought I would post them.

However, for the purposes of this thread I thought I would concentrate on the losers. Feel free to make comments about winning teams as well.

G

w

l

p

School

5	4	1	0	YOUST
5	4	1	0	XAVER
5	4	1	0	WYOM
5	4	1	0	STPET
5	4	1	0	STBON
5	4	1	0	OLMIS
5	4	1	0	OHIO
5	4	1	0	NWST
5	4	1	0	MDESH
5	4	1	0	MARS
5	4	1	0	KC
5	4	1	0	FSU
5	4	1	0	CRE
5	4	1	0	CLEM
5	4	1	0	CALPO
5	4	1	0	AMERU
6	4	1	0	PRINC
6	4	1	1	PEP
6	4	1	1	IONA
6	5	1	0	VMI
6	5	1	0	VAL
6	5	1	0	ULMON
6	5	1	0	OKLST
6	5	1	0	NFLA
6	5	1	0	MICH
6	5	1	0	LIPSC
6	5	1	0	KENTY
6	5	1	0	EMICH
4	4	0	0	STFRP
4	4	0	0	NEV
4	4	0	0	MONT
5	5	0	0	USC
5	5	0	0	UCDAV
5	5	0	0	MDBA
5	4	0	1	MASS
5	5	0	0	KAN
5	5	0	0	HOF
6	5	0	1	RAD
6	6	0	0	MSU
6	6	0	0	BELM

[QuantumLeap]

Fading the losers in the 1st post blindly would get you an 23-8 result today.

Sunday we have the following:

Detroit
Mount St Mary
Quinnipiac
Cincinnati

[QuantumLeap]

OK, since I had such wildly successful numbers fading the losers I thought I would see how the teams with the good recent ATS records did.

If you blindly followed teams with an ATS record of 80% or more in the last 5 games you would go 22-8 today.

Interesting.

Sunday we have the following teams with a good recent ATS record:

St Peter's
Creighton
American University
St. Francis (PA)
USC

[QuantumLeap]

Fading the losers in the 1st post blindly would get you an 23-8 result today.

Sunday we have the following:

Detroit
Mount St Mary
Quinnipiac
Cincinnati

Win) Detroit
Win) Mount St Mary
Loss) Quinnipiac
Loss) Cincinnati

Fading the losers went 2-2 today for a weekend result of 25-10.

[2Shirts]

Bryant

[pimike]

This guy is sharp

[gojetsgomoxies]

do bad teams give up late in NCAA basketball seasons?... i'm thinking most of these players are happy to be playing college basketball teams.... professional leagues and college football are different. there, i would expect to set a big late-season letdown and/or play for next season.

hot teams at end of season are interesting, they are playing for something

[QuantumLeap]

This guy is sharp

Thanks Mike.

[QuantumLeap]

do bad teams give up late in NCAA basketball seasons?... i'm thinking most of these players are happy to be playing college basketball teams.... professional leagues and college football are different. there, i would expect to set a big late-season letdown and/or play for next season.

hot teams at end of season are interesting, they are playing for something

Good input. I just thought of something reading your post. Are the subs who don't get much playing time on poor teams now getting more playing time and want to show how much they should have played more? I can see bench players getting put in during this time of the year and then doing well.

[QuantumLeap]

OK, since I had such wildly successful numbers fading the losers I thought I would see how the teams with the good recent ATS records did.

If you blindly followed teams with an ATS record of 80% or more in the last 5 games you would go 22-8 today.

Interesting.

Sunday we have the following teams with a good recent ATS record:

St Peter's
Creighton
American University
St. Francis (PA)
USC

Winner) St Peter's
Winner) Creighton
Winner) American University
Loss) St. Francis (PA)
Loss) USC

Blindly following teams who were 4-1 ATS or better their last 5 games went 3-2 on Sunday. Combined with Saturday's results it was 25-10 for the weekend. I wonder if this only works for Saturdays. I'll continue to put together a new spreadsheet since ATS records have changed over the weekend and will continue to track this.

I think I'll just do one thread later in the week that includes the week day results and then start another thread for next Saturday.