[HeeluvaGuy]

Hey folks. Long time no see. (Just checked and this is my first post here in about a year and a half.)

For those who don’t know or don’t remember me, I like to bet college basketball totals. Here’s a thread I did a few seasons ago: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ll-thread.html

Nothing super exciting, but provided for background on how I approach this.

Since that thread, I took last season off from trying to model games. I did things mostly by hand, and it sucked. This year, I spent more time than I care to admit working on a new model. Frustrated with that, I scrapped everything and started over.

Why am I telling you this? Because the new model I have has not been back tested even a little bit (and I don’t think I could even if I had the time). We’re doing this in real time, so there is a possibility of spectacular failure.

I sometimes struggle with follow through, so I may not post plays here every day. That said, barring something unforeseen, I will update my model daily. Here is a link to it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...I57aFRLlGprep0

I just went live with it this week and the results are very encouraging (especially for overs and underdogs). Here’s how to read it:

Highlighted team in Column A or C is the ATS pick at at the line posted in the model (always check for changing lines).

The purple games in Column K indicate an under pick, and the other color is an over pick (again, at the total posted in the spreadsheet).

What is different this year?

Pace is still king for me, and that’s where I start with every game - predicted possessions. From there I adjust for offensive and defensive efficiencies to come up with an initial score. Then I adjust again for point distribution (FT, 2, and 3). With that I have predicted scores that I then compare to lines.

I use this model as a tool in making picks. I will do my best to post my picks here, but I can’t offer any kind of schedule as to when that will be. That said, anyone who remembers me knows that I’m always happy to answer questions.

Good luck to everyone this season. Hoping for some positive results and good discussions!

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/6

Mississippi Valley St/Missouri St o141.5
Idaho St/Pepperdine o148
North Dakota/Montana o131.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/6

Mississippi Valley St/Missouri St o141.5
Idaho St/Pepperdine o148
North Dakota/Montana o131.5

2-1 +.9u
YTD: 2-1 +.9u

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/7

1:00
Eastern Michigan/Detroit o144.5
UMass/Harvard o137.5
Stetson/VMI o129

2:00
Youngstown St/Western Michigan o138.5

3:00
Arkansas St/Tulsa o129.5

6:00
Fresno St/Utah St o137

7:00
Cleveland St/Kent St o135.5

8:00
North Dakota St +5
Middle Tennessee/Murray St o145

9:00
Sacramento St/Fullerton o122.5

[Wesley]

Welcome back!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks Wesley. Hope I can bring something useful to the season.

To that end, I am going to try to post a Dog of the Day* that I will track separately from my “main” picks. These are plays for fun at .5u each. The today’s play:

2:00 Wake Forest +220




* I’m not going to force a dog every day. When I see one I like, I’ll post it.

[Hman]

GL today

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/7

1:00
Eastern Michigan/Detroit o144.5
UMass/Harvard o137.5
Stetson/VMI o129

2:00
Youngstown St/Western Michigan o138.5

3:00
Arkansas St/Tulsa o129.5

6:00
Fresno St/Utah St o137

7:00
Cleveland St/Kent St o135.5

8:00
North Dakota St +5
Middle Tennessee/Murray St o145

9:00
Sacramento St/Fullerton o122.5

5-5 -.5u
YTD: 7-6 +.4u

Not sure if/when I’ll have Sunday plays, but I will updated the model before games start.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/8

1:00 Colgate/Niagara o142

2:00 South Alabama/Richmond o138

6:30 Grand Canyon +9

7:00 Eastern Kentucky/Northern Kentucky o145

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/8

1:00 Colgate/Niagara o142

2:00 South Alabama/Richmond o138

6:30 Grand Canyon +9

7:00 Eastern Kentucky/Northern Kentucky o145

1-2-1 -1.2u
YTD: 8-8 -.8u

[HeeluvaGuy]

Passing today unless we see some major line movements.

Thanks to the small card, I was able to update the layout of my model (link in first post of this thread). I also added a key in the results tab, but I don't mind answering questions if something doesn't make sense. Feedback on the layout is appreciated.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/9

8:00 Minnesota/Iowa u147.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

Also:

12/9

8:00 Alabama State/South Dakota o137

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/9

8:00 Minnesota/Iowa u147.5

Also:

12/9

8:00 Alabama State/South Dakota o137

1-1 -.1u
YTD: 9-9 -.9u

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/10 (more plays than I expected)


7:00
UMBC/Towson o127.5
Temple -11

7:30
UMKC/McNeese St o138
Tennessee St/Little Rock o133

8:00
Grambling/UL Monroe o139

9:00
Nevada/BYU u153.5
Denver +11
Butler/Baylor u131

Dog of the Day: UConn +115

[B_Millz]

why in the hell do you like the under in the byu game?

[HeeluvaGuy]

why in the hell do you like the under in the byu game?

Sorry, just saw this. I had 73 predicted possessions, which is low for a 150+ number. Looking at the matchups, I thought the three point defenses would take away what both teams like to do.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/10 (more plays than I expected)


7:00
UMBC/Towson o127.5
Temple -11

7:30
UMKC/McNeese St o138
Tennessee St/Little Rock o133

8:00
Grambling/UL Monroe o139

9:00
Nevada/BYU u153.5
Denver +11
Butler/Baylor u131

Dog of the Day: UConn +115

7-1 +5.9u
YTD: 16-10 +5u

Dog of the Day: 0-2

[BOA12]

7-1 +5.9u
YTD: 16-10 +5u

Dog of the Day: 0-2

Nice work and year. Tailing.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/11

8:00 Boise St/Tulsa o131.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

This is probably it for 12/11:

7:00 Cornell/Colgate o138

8:30 Troy/Jacksonville St o137

[HeeluvaGuy]

This is probably it for 12/11:

7:00 Cornell/Colgate o138

8:30 Troy/Jacksonville St o137

12/11

8:00 Boise St/Tulsa o131.5

0-3 -3.3u
YTD: 16-13 +1.7u

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/12

7:00 Southern/Wright St o142

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/12

7:00 Southern/Wright St o142

1-0 +1u
YTD: 17-13 +2.7u

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/13

8:00 UTRGV/Creighton o141

[doubledime]

Good to see you back.

I know from the past, a lot of work goes into every play.

DD

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good to see you back.

I know from the past, a lot of work goes into every play.

DD

Thanks DD. Probably more work than is healthy, but I am what I am....

[BetThenSweat]

12/13

8:00 UTRGV/Creighton o141

How do you feel about the spread between the two teams? Creighton -18

[HeeluvaGuy]

How do you feel about the spread between the two teams? Creighton -18

No real opinion. As a general matter I stay away from really large favorites like that. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Creighton hit 90 in this one. If that happens, they should cover the number. However, my model has Creighton favored by single digits. So it’s a pass for me just because I see a good bit of conflicting info.

BOL if you play it (or anything else)!

[BetThenSweat]

No real opinion. As a general matter I stay away from really large favorites like that. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Creighton hit 90 in this one. If that happens, they should cover the number. However, my model has Creighton favored by single digits. So it’s a pass for me just because I see a good bit of conflicting info.

BOL if you play it (or anything else)!

so you see utrgv as a formidable opponent? Are they underrated

[HeeluvaGuy]

so you see utrgv as a formidable opponent? Are they underrated

All I’m saying is that I don’t have a lean on the side because I have conflicting info. Sorry I can’t be more helpful than that.

[BetThenSweat]

All I’m saying is that I don’t have a lean on the side because I have conflicting info. Sorry I can’t be more helpful than that.

Thank you

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/13

8:00 UTRGV/Creighton o141

1-0 +1u
YTD: 18-13 +3.7u

Note: For anyone looking at the model results, this pick grades as a loss there because I grade it using closing lines for consistency.

[HeeluvaGuy]

12/14

Noon: IPFW/IUPUI o141.5

I’ll post more in a bit.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2:00
Morgan St/La Salle o139
St. Francis (NY) +105
Alabama/Penn St u154