1. #736
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred The Hammer View Post
    Good luck man! I've rarely had any luck with season long threads on here. Everyone goes cold at some point and needs a break. Don't be a stranger!
    Season threads are tough. Gotta be willing to take your lumps. With the exception of last season (when I didn't have a thread), I've had pretty good luck in the postseason. That might bring me back, but probably not for the conference tourneys.

    For anyone curious, here's how I've done in the three season long NCAAB threads I've done here:

    Year Wins Losses % Units
    2019-20 159 140 53.2% 5.35
    2017-18 105 95 52.5% 6.29
    2016-17 113 92 55.1% 12.75
    Total 377 327 53.6% 24.39

    Links:

    2017-18: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ll-thread.html
    2016-17: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ps-thread.html
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  2. #737
    bigbluemist
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    Bump for reference

  3. #738
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Gonna give it a shot tonight.

    3/10

    6:00

    MD Eastern Shore/Delaware St u144.5

    7:00

    Hofstra -1
    UIC +4.5

    9:00

    North Dakota/NDSU o137


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  4. #739
    bigbluemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Gonna give it a shot tonight.

    3/10

    6:00

    MD Eastern Shore/Delaware St u144.5

    Did I read the spreadsheet wrong? I thought it showed a total of 158?

    Good to see back

    GL

  5. #740
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigbluemist View Post
    Did I read the spreadsheet wrong? I thought it showed a total of 158?

    Good to see back

    GL
    You’re reading it correctly. I’m going against the model for that game. I won’t have time to get the numbers, but the model has been pretty unreliable on those extra games. If you look at any given day, nearly all of the extra games are predicted to go over. I think I know the reason for this, but I haven’t figured out a fix yet.

    Thanks for pointing that out. I should have mentioned it in my post.
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  6. #741
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post

    3/10

    6:00

    MD Eastern Shore/Delaware St u144.5

    7:00

    Hofstra -1
    UIC +4.5

    9:00

    North Dakota/NDSU o137


    3-1 +1.9u
    YTD: 162-141 +7.25u
    Mar: 6-6 -.6u
    Feb: 47-48 -5.7u

    Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
    Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
    Only UIC let us down with its 3-15 shooting from three. On to tomorrow...
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  7. #742
    HeeluvaGuy
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    3/11

    1:00

    George Mason -5



    Might have others later.
    Points Awarded:

    bigbluemist gave HeeluvaGuy 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  8. #743
    HeeluvaGuy
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    3:00

    Oregon St -3


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  9. #744
    HeeluvaGuy
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    5:30

    Washington/Arizona o139


    EDIT: This is going against my model.
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  10. #745
    HeeluvaGuy
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    That's all I have for today. BOL all!
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  11. #746
    bigbluemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    3/11

    1:00

    George Mason -5



    Might have others later.
    GM and their inability to hit FTs almost screwed this one up!

  12. #747
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigbluemist View Post
    GM and their inability to hit FT’s almost screwed this one up!
    And in the next game, Alfonso Plummer sets the Pac 12 single game made three record and beats his career high by 12 points. We lose by 1 point. What can you do?
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  13. #748
    Fred The Hammer
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    Had ND State and the Zags Over yesterday. They're about the only games to go Over. I did have UIC/N Ky Under 132 and they scored 20+ pts in the last 3 min to ruin it. Back to Overs for me!

    Not sure exactly how to best play Nebraska @ Indiana tonite @ Bankers Life in Indy. Neb's top 2 guards are out. They've added football players just to fill out their roster. Thats never good. Indiana is no world beater, but they are big & strong inside and Neb has no size. IU put up 96 (OT) and 82 on Neb already this year. Went big on Indiana Over 79.5. They'll want to get some momentum and Neb plays fast and gives up the rim. Indiana will probably need to shoot 20+ Ft's to get there but I see something like 85-63

  14. #749
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    3/11

    1:00

    George Mason -5


    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    3:00

    Oregon St -3


    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    5:30

    Washington/Arizona o139


    2-1 +.9u
    YTD: 164-142 +8.15u
    Mar: 8-7 +.3u
    Feb: 47-48 -5.7u

    Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
    Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
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  15. #750
    Fred The Hammer
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    Well if thats it then we closed strong. I had IU & Marshall over and cashed TCU 2nd half +6.5. Had TCU -2 for a nice 3 teamer for $338 and they had a 4 pt lead but ran out of gas late.

    GL HG and everyone else. I think this thing will run out of steam eventually, but when Forest Gump has Corona then the shit has most definitely hit the fan!

  16. #751
    HeeluvaGuy
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    I don’t think I’ll be posting plays today. Assuming games go forward, the unusual circumstances make it unwise to try to predict what will happen. I suspect some games will have a ton of scoring and others will be extremely low scoring without any fans in the buildings. I will have the spreadsheet updated shortly, however, for anyone willing to wade into this pool today. BOL to all!
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  17. #752
    HeeluvaGuy
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    With Kansas and Duke reportedly pulling out of the NCAA Tournament, it looks like the season is officially done. Here is the final tally for my last three threads. Hope to be back at it next season!

    Year Wins Losses % Units
    2019-20 164 142 53.6% 8.15
    2017-18 105 95 52.5% 6.29
    2016-17 113 92 55.1% 12.75
    Total 382 329 53.7% 27.19
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  18. #753
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Here's how my model finished up ATS for the season:
    Wins Losses
    SIdes 1873 1934 49.20%
    Totals 2014 1859 52.00%
    All Plays 3887 3793 50.61%
    Overs 1322 1203 52.36%
    Unders 692 656 51.34%
    Dogs 1129 1138 49.80%
    Favorites 744 796 48.31%

    Like I said in the first post, this is the first season I have used this model. I built it out of a bit of desperation when the testing I had been doing on other approaches hadn't produced good results. 52% over nearly 4,000 games is a pretty good result for the totals. My hope is that with some time to work on this I can make it better for next season.

    Weird not to finish the season with One Shining Moment, but you never know what life will throw at you next.
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  19. #754
    doubledime
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Here's how my model finished up ATS for the season:
    Wins Losses
    SIdes 1873 1934 49.20%
    Totals 2014 1859 52.00%
    All Plays 3887 3793 50.61%
    Overs 1322 1203 52.36%
    Unders 692 656 51.34%
    Dogs 1129 1138 49.80%
    Favorites 744 796 48.31%

    Like I said in the first post, this is the first season I have used this model. I built it out of a bit of desperation when the testing I had been doing on other approaches hadn't produced good results. 52% over nearly 4,000 games is a pretty good result for the totals. My hope is that with some time to work on this I can make it better for next season.

    Weird not to finish the season with One Shining Moment, but you never know what life will throw at you next.
    Well done. Thanks for sharing your model. By any chance do you know the totals record on Extra games vs Regular games. My gut feeling is that your totals record would be better if it did not include the Extra games, but only Regular games. Thanks again DD

  20. #755
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by doubledime View Post
    Well done. Thanks for sharing your model. By any chance do you know the totals record on Extra games vs Regular games. My gut feeling is that your totals record would be better if it did not include the Extra games, but only Regular games. Thanks again DD

    I haven't gotten that far yet, but that's one of the first things I want to figure out. I have a strong suspicion you're are correct.
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  21. #756
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Here's how my model finished up ATS for the season:
    Wins Losses
    SIdes 1873 1934 49.20%
    Totals 2014 1859 52.00%
    All Plays 3887 3793 50.61%
    Overs 1322 1203 52.36%
    Unders 692 656 51.34%
    Dogs 1129 1138 49.80%
    Favorites 744 796 48.31%

    Like I said in the first post, this is the first season I have used this model. I built it out of a bit of desperation when the testing I had been doing on other approaches hadn't produced good results. 52% over nearly 4,000 games is a pretty good result for the totals. My hope is that with some time to work on this I can make it better for next season.

    Weird not to finish the season with One Shining Moment, but you never know what life will throw at you next.
    I finally finished up separating out the "extra" games as DD suggested. The results are better, but not as much as it may have seemed during the season. Note, however, that I have not broken these results down by over/under or favorite/dog and probably won't get around to that.

    Season results without the "Extra" games:
    Wins Losses
    SIdes 1580 1588 49.87%
    Totals 1681 1530 52.35%
    All Plays 3261 3118 51.12%
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