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This is why I stay away from three point heavy teams on the road.Originally Posted by cmatth1326
As for the MWC, I went back and looked at how AF shot last year since they have the same starting lineup. They were great in their first round game last season, and those things can carry over mentally, especially with an experienced team.
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Last one:
9:00Missouri/Ole Miss o132.5
3-4
7:00
St. Francis (NY)/Robert Morris o137
3:00
Air Force/Fresno St o140
8:00
Houston Baptist/Incarnate Word o157.5
9:00Missouri/Ole Miss o132.5
3-1 +1.9u
YTD: 159-136 +9.75u
Mar: 3-1 +1.9u
Feb: 47-48 -5.7u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
Last edited by HeeluvaGuy; 03-05-20 at 07:04 AM.
3/5
Noon
USC Upstate/Winthrop u153.5
I'll be looking at games throughout the day.
Probably will be a play for me.
Looks like a lot of people had that idea. Gonna pass at 140.
I got it at 143
Must have gotten hammered!!
2:30
San Diego St -17
I don’t bet a lot of big favorites, so I thought I’d explain a little. AF is a jump shooting team on a short turnaround after a tough game where 4 starters played 33+ minutes and the fifth played 29. SDSU is an elite defensive team that allows just 29% shooting from three. They are playing for a #1 seed in the 10th worst conference out there, so they need some style points too. SDSU won by 15 at Colorado Springs during the regular season, and it’s reasonable to expect AF will not shoot as well today.
3/5
Noon
USC Upstate/Winthrop u153.5
I'll be looking at games throughout the day.
Winthrop is 6-9 from 3 in first 10 minutes.
LOL
Holy Hell. SMDH
That was nuts. The total dropped as low as 147 and they put up 91 in the first half. To give an idea of how crazy that was (and to get nerdy for a minute), Winthrop’s efficiency was 1.38 points per possession. They average 1.06 PPP on the season. So they outperformed by 30% in a noon start in an away gym. I bet most did not see that coming.
I’ll play under them tomorrow or bet against them. They’ll not shoot that way 2 days in a row
Looks like this is it for me tonight:
8:00
Youngstown/UIC o135
10:00
Eastern Illinois/Austin Peay o142
SD State was down late to Col St recently. I think they were overrated and now not playing at their peak. I think fading them in the tourn will be $$. I can see somebody like St. Louis taking them down 2nd round
Perhaps, but today’s game was really about Air Force making a ton of shots in the first half, most of them highly contested (7-13 from three 1h). That stuff happens when you get every team’s best shot. They ended up winning the second half by 17, so tip of the cap to the AF kids for playing really well for about 25 minutes. The Aztecs outscored them 34-16 in the final 15 minutes.
Gonna sleep on it, but I am probably shutting the thread down after tonight. It's one thing to lose when one or both teams are a little off, but it's another thing when teams are combing for 36% from the field for the game in an over and hitting 16-30 from three in an under.
I do this for fun, and the last 6 weeks of this have not been fun at all. I can roll with a few flukes, but this is night in/night out.
Terrible first halfs cost us both of them. Annoyingly close.
3/5
Noon
USC Upstate/Winthrop u153.5
2:30
San Diego St -17
0-4 -4.4u
8:00
Youngstown/UIC o135
10:00
Eastern Illinois/Austin Peay o142
YTD: 159-140 +5.35u
Mar: 3-5 -2.5u
Feb: 47-48 -5.7u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
I won’t be posting any more plays this season. I will likely keep the spreadsheet up to date, but there is no reason to continue this thread. I hate quitting at this point with the tournament around the corner, but I’m adding zero value here right now.
I appreciate all who participated this season. We had a nice run for a bit, but the last 6 weeks or so have been miserable. I may be back in the fall with college football, but for now I’m taking a break.
BOL to all!
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Heel- it was great to correspond with you through here.
Enjoy the time off and look forward to seeing you back around
Likewise. I will probably be around some, just not posting picks. I am going to spend some time tinkering with my model. I have some ideas on how to improve it for next season, but it’s going to take some time to sort out.
I love this sport so much, but lately it’s hard to recognize. Three point shooting has changed things so much, and I think that accounts for a lot of the big swings we see in efficiency. The crazy thing is that those swings seemed to go against us in every game since January. I’m stubborn, but I’ve reached my limit for this season.
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Thanks for the thread and all the work you do on the spreadsheet!
0-4 -4.4u
YTD: 159-140 +5.35u
Mar: 3-5 -2.5u
Feb: 47-48 -5.7u
Jan: 57-49 +2.62u
Dec: 52-38 +10.93u
I won’t be posting any more plays this season. I will likely keep the spreadsheet up to date, but there is no reason to continue this thread. I hate quitting at this point with the tournament around the corner, but I’m adding zero value here right now.
I appreciate all who participated this season. We had a nice run for a bit, but the last 6 weeks or so have been miserable. I may be back in the fall with college football, but for now I’m taking a break.
BOL to all!
Thanks for your dedication
Heel
A couple of points:
I know from our past conversations over the years, you devote an over abundance of time into handicapping ever one of your plays. My bet would be that you devote more time per selection, than anyone else on this forum. Nothing is more frustrating than spending all that time, and having the play not cover.......believe me, I know that frustration all too well.
Secondly, you were plus for the season, and once again, not too many posters here can make that claim.
Thanks for your time, effort, insight and for being a class act.
DD
Thanks fellas. I wish we could have ended the season on a higher note. I appreciate the comments and points throughout the season.
Your first point is dead on. The results don’t merit the time spent at this point. I’m working with a new tool this season, which is more efficient in some ways than in the past, but will benefit from some fine tuning for next season.Heel
A couple of points:
I know from our past conversations over the years, you devote an over abundance of time into handicapping ever one of your plays. My bet would be that you devote more time per selection, than anyone else on this forum. Nothing is more frustrating than spending all that time, and having the play not cover.......believe me, I know that frustration all too well.
Secondly, you were plus for the season, and once again, not too many posters here can make that claim.
Thanks for your time, effort, insight and for being a class act.
DD
As to the second point, I agree completely that being up after one play shy of 300 isn’t anything to be upset about. It’s really just the lack of return on my time that bugs me.
Finally, I do appreciate the compliments, but there aren’t any acts classier than you on this board (that I’ve encountered at least). Looking forward to your baseball thread this summer.
Thanks for posting. Wish we could've had a few of these anomalies go our way
Still solid nonetheless.
Your first point is dead on. The results don’t merit the time spent at this point. I’m working with a new tool this season, which is more efficient in some ways than in the past, but will benefit from some fine tuning for next season.
As to the second point, I agree completely that being up after one play shy of 300 isn’t anything to be upset about. It’s really just the lack of return on my time that bugs me.
Finally, I do appreciate the compliments, but there aren’t any acts classier than you on this board (that I’ve encountered at least). Looking forward to your baseball thread this summer.
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HG - you have been absolutely elite this year, so much so that I'm willing to wade through the cesspool everyday to see what you are on. When we are on opposing sides I'm genuinely annoyed and go back to look at what I have probably ****** up when capping. When we are on the same play I basically can mark it down as a winner. Hope to see you back next year and if you find the motivation again can't wait to see what plays you have for the big dance.
Never doubt yourself for a second. You are a +EV bettor in the totals market.
-Son_of_Balrog
HG - you have been absolutely elite this year, so much so that I'm willing to wade through the cesspool everyday to see what you are on. When we are on opposing sides I'm genuinely annoyed and go back to look at what I have probably ****** up when capping. When we are on the same play I basically can mark it down as a winner. Hope to see you back next year and if you find the motivation again can't wait to see what plays you have for the big dance.
Never doubt yourself for a second. You are a +EV bettor in the totals market.
-Son_of_Balrog
Wow. Thanks so much for the kind words, especially seeing that this is your first post on these boards in 3+ years.
We'll see what the next week brings. I may dip my toe back in for tournament time, if for no other reason than to get to 300 picks for the season.
Thanks very much for posting.
Likewise. BOL with your plays!
Good luck man! I've rarely had any luck with season long threads on here. Everyone goes cold at some point and needs a break. Don't be a stranger!
Thank you for the work you put in.
bigbluemist gave HeeluvaGuy 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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