Buying, selling the latest Bracketology

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If Duke ends up missing out on a No. 1 seed due to missed time (or limited time) for Zion Williamson, the team most likely to benefit would be the same one that took advantage of a hobbled Blue Devils squad Wednesday: North Carolina.


Not only did the Tar Heels grab a road victory over what was considered the best team in college basketball, and not only do the Heels face Duke again March 9 (this time at home), but they are probably best positioned to take hold of a spot on the top seed line if Duke vacates one.


North Carolina sits as a No. 2 in Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology, but let's play this out. Our Basketball Power Index presumes Virginia is a near-lock to take one of the top seeds. There's a good chance that either Tennessee or Kentucky -- whichever finishes out the season stronger -- will take another. Gonzaga is not certain to land a No. 1 seed but has a good chance, especially if it gets a little boost from NET. After that, if not Duke, who?



The Tar Heels are both better (per BPI) and have accomplished more, according to strength of record, than Michigan, despite a slightly worse record. BPI thinks Michigan State is a slightly better team, though the Spartans have their own injury woes now and UNC holds the résumé card over them as well.


Now, Duke announced Thursday evening that Williamson is only day-to-day. It might be that this is all for naught and that both Williamson and Duke end up being fine. But there's no doubt that Duke has to be considered on less certain seeding ground than 48 hours ago. If Williamson misses a string of games, consider BPI betting on UNC to move up.


And we're picking a few more teams to buy and sell stock in. Earlier this season we did exactly that, picking teams we thought would move up or down from their spots in Bracketology at the time based on BPI's projections for the rest of the season. Our record as of Thursday is 5-2-2 (five moved in the direction we said, two moved the opposite direction and two stayed the same). Our best call was selling Oklahoma when the Sooners were a 4-seed; our worst was buying Nebraska as a No. 8 seed.


Selling: LSU Tigers
Current Bracketology seed: 4
BPI projected seed: 6.1
By our numbers, LSU has the quality of a No. 7 seed but the résumé of a No. 4 seed. The problem? That résumé is going to get worse. BPI projects the Tigers to go about 3-2 the rest of the way, thanks a contest versus Tennessee before road trips to Alabama and Florida.


Then the Tigers are almost hurt by the fact that they will likely be one of the top four seeds in the SEC tournament, meaning that they won't get any easy wins and could go out as soon as their first game (45 percent chance that happens, per BPI).


In other words: While the Tigers sit at a nice 21-5 right now, a 3-3 or 4-3 finish is mighty reasonable -- and they ought to drop a little in seeding as a result. By the way: BPI is selling the SEC in general. While the conference currently has eight teams in the bracket, our model thinks it will be more like 6.6 -- with Florida as the likely team that is up in the air.


Buying: Wofford Terriers
Current Bracketology seed: 9
BPI projected seed: 7.1
Yep, we're doubling down on Wofford. We bought stock a month ago when the Terriers were an 11-seed, and we think they're going to keep on rising.


And it's for mostly the same reasons, too.


1. Wofford is legitimately good thanks to a legitimately great offense, which BPI thinks is the ninth-best in Division I. It's not just because Wofford has the second-best unadjusted offensive efficiency in the country, because BPI adjusts for quality of opponent and still thinks the Terriers are a top-10 team at that end of the court.


2. The Terriers have an excellent record at 23-4. It's a long shot for Wofford to win out all the way through its conference tournament, but it is possible at 19 percent. Even if the Terriers pick up a loss somewhere along the way (at Furman on Saturday is a tricky one), the committee has to reward a five-loss team with something better than a No. 9 seed, right?


With other strong teams in the league, notably Furman, BPI feels there's a good chance the Southern Conference ends up with two bids.


Selling: Iowa State Cyclones
Current Bracketology seed: 4
BPI projected seed: 6.6
In terms of how good Iowa State currently is, it's easy to see why it is slated at No. 4. But résuméwise, BPI is skeptical the Cyclones can land that seed, with seven losses. They're sort of the opposite case of LSU in that way.


But here's where the stories are similar: There will be a few more losses heading the Cyclones' way -- with the 18th-toughest regular-season schedule remaining, including trips to TCU and Texas and a home game against Texas Tech. There's a fairly decent chance Iowa State will need to win the Big 12 tournament to avoid double-digit losses.


It's possible the Cyclones could end up as high as a No. 4 seed with that many losses, but BPI isn't banking on it.


However, this is setting up nicely for Iowa State to end up being a nice upset pick in the NCAA tournament. Thanks to an efficient 2-point scoring offense and solid defense, Iowa State would be an awfully tough matchup for a No. 3 seed to run into in the second round.