[Hman]

NBA draft stock watch: Zion, Barrett, Reddish and more from Duke-UNC

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DURHAM, N.C. -- It was more evident than ever that a healthy Zion Williamsondeserves to be the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA draft after watching a deflated Duke team fall to North Carolina at home on Wednesday. Williamson exited the game -- an 88-72 Blue Devils loss -- with a knee sprain after just 36 seconds.



Williamson's absence left a 285-pound hole in the reeling Blue Devils. He is Duke's best rebounder, most versatile defender, most explosive finisher, most dynamic slasher and most energetic personality. In a way, it reminded scouts that Williamson is the best prospect in the draft and an immediate difference-maker at the next level. Watching Duke without Williamson reinforced just how valuable it is to have a modern big who can switch screens, protect the rim, sky for rebounds, push in the open court and put pressure on the rim with ease.


With Williamson out, it was useful to get extended looks at both Cam Reddishand RJ Barrett, as the two were forced to shoulder a larger load, combining to take 45 shots in a collective 75 minutes.


Barrett, who played all 40 minutes (posting 33 points), was aggressive to the rim, regularly sneaking through tight crevices to generate 10 free throw attempts. He also got in on the glass (13 rebounds) and made a few transition and cross-court feeds that should instill optimism in his potential as a playmaker. Barrett's ability to see the floor shouldn't really be in question. It's more a matter of him finding the right balance between aggressively looking to score and his ability to make others better. Although he finished with four assists and five turnovers, Barrett had minimal spacing to work with. For a drive-first slasher, that isn't an ideal situation to show your talents.


Barrett remains a bit clunky with the ball at times, relying on bully ball yet struggling to finish with much finesse against length (especially with his off hand). His stroke is also more stiff and mechanical than you'd hope (3-for-11 from 3), even if he knocked down a couple of pull-up jumpers. He doesn't maximize his potential as an off-ball defender, either, regularly failing to rotate or stunt at the ball. Barrett remains the second-best prospect in the draft, as he's the only player in our database younger than 19 to average at least 20 points, seven rebounds and four assists. But even given Barrett's production and All-Star potential, this was a reminder of the gap between him and Williamson as prospects.


After a slow start to the game, Reddish showed some of his virtues as an on-the-move shooter, finishing with 27 points on 23 shots. Most of Reddish's buckets come on smooth, NBA-caliber moves. He knocked down a pull-up 3 out of pick-and-roll, an off-screen elevation 3 from the corner and a midrange catch-and-shoot jumper off a pindown. He also showed his fluidity at times, attacking the rim in the open court. Yet Reddish really struggled to finish at the rim over length yet again, regularly playing off two feet rather than one. He also put his head down while driving on multiple occasions, barreling into help defenders (zero assists, four turnovers). Reddish is clearly at his best playing off another star.


On the defensive end of the floor, Reddish was a mixed bag. He had some impressive moments sliding with guards or walling off against Luke Maye, while also showing instincts in bluff-and-recover situations. On the flip side, he rarely got back in transition and offered little resistance on the glass.


Nassir Little
This felt like an excellent opportunity for North Carolina's Little to make a statement by showing his defensive versatility against Williamson, Reddish and Barrett. But after the Williamson injury, we were robbed of that matchup -- one that likely wouldn't have ended well for Little, based on how he looked defensively against some of Duke's complementary players. Although rarely scored on, Little looked lost on both ends of the floor, as has been the case all season.


He helped off the strong side corner, lost shooters and moved late on closeouts. His only bucket came on a clunky, midrange pull-up jumper banked in against Marques Bolden, and he mixed in a bad air-ball while committing three turnovers in 12 minutes. He looks like a shell of the player who drew young Kawhi Leonard comparisons prior to arriving in Chapel Hill. He appears uncomfortable on the floor and isn't in the best situation to succeed, but Little's lack of feel and skill on both ends of the floor are certainly starting to become worrisome, even in what some consider a shallow draft throughout the top 10.


Tre Jones vs. Coby White
Although Jones finished the game shooting 1-for-11, he exposed UNC guard White consistently. White struggled mightily with Jones' relentless ball pressures, finishing 3-for-14 with six turnovers and only three assists.


A shot-maker by trade, White's low release point was bothered by a host of Blue Devils defenders. White is having a strong statistical season and has become a first-round favorite among some scouts, but he showed his drawbacks in this matchup. White was more of a catch-and-shoot guard at the high school level, and that's really where he has found success this season, not yet showing that he is the most savvy pick-and-roll player. White's splits are telling: He averages 14.9 points, 3.8 assists and 2.8 turnovers on 53.5 true shooting against teams over .500 (17 games) and 17.7 points, 5.3 assists, 2.6 turnovers and a 68.9 true shooting percentage against teams under .500 (seven games).


Jones clearly needs to become more of a consistent threat from the perimeter, but he has the quickest hands in college basketball, and he projects as a high-level NBA defender, even though he isn't the most physically imposing prospect. He converted a few thread-the-needle passes in the open court, and he has the exact type of toughness and feel that teams will bet on in the second half of the first round.
Cameron Johnson, draft sleeper
Johnson backed up his draft sleeper case with an efficient 26 points, seven rebounds and four assists for the Tar Heels. Johnson is an opportunistic transition scorer who showed his versatility as a shot-maker, knocking down on-the-move midrange jumpers and attacking closeouts into and-1 finishes. He benefits from playing the 4 at this level, but there's no question that Johnson has real value as an NBA role player at 6-foot-9, given his shooting stroke.


He has gotten tougher on the defensive end, as well, regularly sliding with Reddish to force turnovers and taking an on-ball charge on a closeout. Johnson is smart, he can really shoot and he has positional size -- all things NBA teams are looking for in a rotation player. Although he will turn 23 in March, Johnson is the type of mature forward that playoff teams will look to invest in come June.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I think the Zion hype is legit....

but who plays or has played like him recently in the NBA? is he going to put on weight? (no back-to-backs in college)....does he fit the newly evolved NBA play?

don't get me wrong, he's going to sell alot of tix.

just worried he's some sort of tweeter (who don't seem to work out well) or his game is bit too old school (note that this has changed just in the last 5 years, accelerating a long term term trend that had probably slowed some)

[gojetsgomoxies]

I did some googling and 4 of the 5 players Zion is compared to were the the first 4 I thought of (sorry, bad grammar/logic)

griffin - same athleticism, better passer than Zion....

Lebrun - lbj better passer.

barclay - similar... but so long ago. Zion is taller too.

Shawn kemp - so long ago too...... kemp taller and much lighter...... different era as mentioned.

and the one I didn't think of......... Larry Johnson........ couldn't keep the weight off... Zion is listed at 285 pounds

commentator thought Zion was 75% LJ, 25% Barkley.... can't imagine teams would have LJ as #1 overall pick this year. but of course, his game would have changed in 20 years.

I think it comes down to Zion keep weight off (wear and tear of back/back games), if he can make 3's in NBA (getting open and hitting them) and whether the game has passed by his type.... not the same players, but Parker and Okafor were both similarly amazing at Duke.