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Games that make you say...
hmmm. everyday there is usually a tough matchup where the trends and line seem opposite. today it is ill. st at evansville.
evansville 11-5 ats. 6-2 ats at home. 9-2 ats last 3 years when home fav of 3 or less.
ill. st 7-10 ats. 2-6 road record. but has beaten evansville 5 straight.
line is evansiville -1. curious to see will current status trump recent history of this matchup. some say past matchups don't matter.
monroe 7-0 at home. -2 against lafayette who has owned them recently including winning last 2 by 55 combined.
L'ville/Gtech. l'ville -4 despite tech missing their leading score and 2 senior contributors. cards opened at -2.5.
won the last two holding tech to 54 and 50 in winning by 23 and then 15 pts. both games went under. today's total 135. tech is 12-5 ats. l'ville 8-7-2
TCU/KSU. K. st opened -1 at home and moved to -3. k.st. 2-7 ats home. tcu 6-1 ats road. ksu 5-2 su recent matchups. tcu 4-3 ats. tcu 9-2 ats last 11. k.st. 4-7, but won 3 of last 4. interesting matchup as k.st wants to play in the 60s and tcu prefers 80 pts plus.
ill. st. keeps the run going winning with ease 78-70 leading the whole game. forgot to add the line opened evansville -4.Originally Posted by kingdom
Last edited by kingdom; 01-20-19 at 12:04 AM.
usc -1.5 at home vs. ucla. ucla has won last 4 su. 3-1 ats. sc 8-2 at home (6-4 ats) ucla 1-4 road (1-3 ats) games have alternated o/u last 5. under last matchup.
9/10 Kentucky/Auburn have gone under. interesting to see if trend continues now that auburn is explosive as well. total at 147
monroe came out hot scoring 53 in the 1h taking a 14 pt lead. held on for a 99-95 win to break the losing streak against lafayette and covered the number.
ksu has zero problems winning 65-55 and keeping the score way low in their favor and staying hot in the big 12.
usc takes care of business at home and breaks the losing streak against ucla 80-67 winning at home with ease.
the line was surprisingly small but l'ville had no problems whooping tech 78-51 and again keeping the game under by throttling tech's offense.
game started slow with 62 1h points but in the 2h 100 pts scored to send the game way over.
Towson/Delaware. D'ware 13-7 su/11-6 ats opened at home as -6.5 vs Towson 5-14 su and 6-12 ats. line now at -5.5. towson has lost 6 in a row su/ats. delaware won 4/5 su and ats. towson has won last 4 h2h and line has moved in ther favor.
Houston opened -6.5 at usf and is now -6. houston 17-1 and 11-6 ats against usf at 12-5 su and 13-4 ats including 6-0 as underdog. big turnaround for usf who used to get beat down by 30+ just a few years ago. good test for legitimacy of both teams. usf seems to have a really good coach to turn things around so fast. interesting to see if he can hold tight against a hot houston team. Houston has won last 3 su/ats.
Last game is a 1-10 (3-8 ats) on the road fullerton against a 6-1 home (3-2 ats) lbsu squad favored by 2.5
LBSU has won and covered last 2 at home. last 5 in series has gone under. total is 147.5
csfu is 5-12 su and 4-11 ats and lb is 8-10 su and 9-6 ats. lb on paper seems to be better team but line implies otherwise.
Delaware took off early with a 15 pt half time lead until Towson ran them down in second half outscoring them by 16 for a 1 pt victory to beat Delaware for a 5th straight time.
Houston seems legit as they pulled out a 69-60 road victory to cover and continue their streak against usf. bulls showed promise playing tough and outscoring Houston in 2h by 1.
Back and forth game as csf was up ten in 1h and lb ran them down in 2nd to send it to ot where csf got the road win. taking csf with the points was the play.
Prov/Marq line opened at 5.5 and has moved to -7.5 in favor of Marq. they are 15-3 and seem to be having the better season compared to Prov at 11-6. Marq is 12-0 at home su/ 9-3 ats. but Prov has had marq number winning 3 of last 4 matchups including last two on the road as dogs. interesting line move as the last 4 games have been decided by 5 pts or less. Recent history says Marq has a great chance to cover. couple of guys are questionable so injuries could play a factor today.
Howard is playing and guys ? for both teams are small role players.
i had a write up on bc game and them losing 5 in a row playing fsu who lost 3/4 and that fsu doesn;t cover against winning teams while bc is 6-3 ats against winning teams and hungry at home. line still moved from -6 to -7. typically a hungry bc covers here.
Duq/gw is a matchup where most trends are against -3 fav duq. they are 12-5 but 6-11 ats. 2-8 ats as a fav and 6-18 as a fav last 3 years. gw is only 6-11 su, but 9-8 ats including 7-4 as a dog. gw also 6-2 ats against teams with winning record. but duq has won and covered the last 2 matchups.
Drake line very interesting as it opened at -6.5 at BM and has dropped to -4. Drake is 13-5 and 12-4 ats with most of that before the Norton injury. since the injury they have gone 2-2 su/ats and haven't looked bad. Mizz st has covered easily and won su their last two road games as a dog while drake is 5-1 ats at home. Drake has won 3 of last 4 matchups with none being more than a 4pt difference. these 2 usually play it tight.
down to 3.5 just before game time. state getn a lot of love here.
Last edited by kingdom; 01-20-19 at 02:43 PM. Reason: update
Utah has moved from -2 to -3.5 against colorado at home. col a pretty weak road team going 1-5 ats this year and 7-22 ats on road last 3. utah 6-2 at home, only 3-5 ats. utah has won 3/4 su/ats against colorado but have been very sporadic this year. i think the line move suggests they get it done today.
Denver isn't very good but always beat oru at home. line has moved from -3 to -5.5. pretty significant. interested to see if Denver gets the easy w
thanks man
Studying this 'Nova/Butler game. nova really hot winning 6 straight and 5/7 ats against solid competition. 5-0 in conference as well. butler has been solid going 3-3 in conference with 2 one point losses and winning 4/5 ats. series has been really competitive with butler winning 3/5, but nova has won the last 2. butler has won both home games covering easily as a dog. Butler has been holding solid as a -1.5 home fav. expecting a really close game and the home court for butler may be the difference.
BG a +1 dog at emu. bg has won 9 in a row su and 8 in a row ats. having a solid season being 13-5 su and 11-5 ats. while emu has struggled a bit being 8-10 and 5-9 ats. 2-4 in last 6 while 4-2 ats. bg has won the last two as a dog including at emu last year 75-71 as a +10 road dog last year. one of those very intriguing games where the seemingly better team is a dog. with a line like this, you never know
Clemson/fsu both struggled once acc play started. tigers 1-3 with losses to duke, uva, and at syracuse. tough start to schedule before beating gtech at home. fsu has a 1-4 acc start losing to duke and uva also as well as pitt and bc on the road. fsu has won 3 of last 4 in series. they are a home fav -6 tonight coming off 3 straight losses. i expect them to be hungry for a win. -6 seems like a big number for this matchup. seems like they will be motivated after blowing the game in the second half against bc, and losing their last home game close against duke.
k. st one of hottest teams in conference winning 4 in a row. ttech has lost last 2 and opened as a pk against k.st. line is now ksu -2. tech has won 4 of last 5 in series including last 3 with two blowouts last year. one of the matchups where the hot team is against a team that seems to have their number. good chance for state to keep hot streak going and break losing streak against tech.
wich st. is 8-9 this year and struggling on road losing last 4 and the closest being by 9. usf opened as a 2 point home fav and is now -2.5. usf is 13-6 and 12-5 ats. coming off a tough 3 su loss stretch against cincy, temple, and houston. wich. st won by 38 at home last year. usf seems to be a different team this year and has a chance to avenge the loss and break a 3 game losing streak against st. who has lost 5 of 6.
ole miss is being doubted again this week as an underdog of +1 at bama. bama seems to play to the level of their competition so far this season playing in a lot of tough close games, including scaring tenn saturday. ole miss is 15-2 ats and 7-1 ats on the road. bama 6-2 su and 3-5 ats at home. 3 of bama's last 5 games have been decided by 3 or less. interesting to see if ole miss can pull out another one. ole miss shoots 75 percent from ft line and bama shoots 68. in a close game that can be the difference.
Hot Purdue against very cold ohio st. Purdue is a -1.5 on road as they have won 6 of 7 su and 5 of 7 ats. ohio st going the other way having lost 4 in a row su and 5 in a row ats. last 2 years each team won on the others court by 1 point. ohio st. is 13-3 at home against purdue. i tend to side with the desperate team in these close matchups at home.
scrub matchup between lasalle and fordham. lasalle is 3-14 su against 9-9 fordham. fordham is -2.5 at home, but has lost 4 straight against lasalle with the closest game being 8 pts. lasalle has lost 4 straight and fordham has lost 6 in a row. curious to see will lasalle with all their struggles still have fordham's number.
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