[kingdom]

TCU has blown texas out the last two at home by 15. only a 3 pt fav tonight and both teams have lost 3 of 4. Texas is 4-1 as a dog, but they will have to be really good tonight to keep this within the number.

[kingdom]

rhode island 4-0 against vcu in recent matchups with closest game being 7 pts. interesting they are only a 1 pt home fav tonight against a team they usually handle.

[kingdom]

Wisc is 2-4 in last 6 games and opened as -6 at illini and dropped to -4. illini can be competitive at home, but they have lost 6 of last 7 games overall. Wisc has dominated recently beating them by 25, 14, and 9 last 3 matchups. Wisc hasn't been consistent very much this season losing at home to minny and then last week beating michigan. you would think if they show up they can handle illin but interesting that line has moved 2 pts against them. i think that move will be enough for them to cover.

[kingdom]

LB st. and Cal- Northridge aren't very good. but lb has won 5 of their last 7 and csn has gone 7-2 ats in their last 9. they have split the last two matchups, but csn is 4-0 ats. lb won both matchups last year and opened up as a 1 pt fav and now sit as a 2 pt dog. interesting line move in this matchup. makes me lean csn

[kingdom]

uc-irvine/ hawaii looks to be another close matchup. irvine opened -2 on road and has dropped to -21.5 uci is solid defensively and likes to hold teams under 70. they are also 9-3 on the road while hawaii is 9-2 at home and 6-2 ats. uci has won 4 of last 5 matchups. last year two games were decided by 1 pt, and each team also won on the others home court. hawaii has yet to score 70 against irvine in last 5 matchups and they will need to be close to it to have a chance at covering.

[kingdom]

i have a very simple capping philosophy in the san jose st/ wyoming matchup. when two teams suck really bad, take sjs and the points. who the hell is wyoming to be giving up 6 pts?

[kingdom]

the line moves has me taking a closer look at loyola/mizz st. loy opened at -5.5 and are now at -3. loyola is 4-0 ats in recent matchups while they have split su. mizz st. won both home games by 1 and 5. loyola has gotten hot since start of conference play going 5-1. mizz st. hasn't as they have gone 2-4 including losing their last two at home. interesting to see the line move in their favor as loyola does well against them and is playing good basketball. loyola shoots 50% from field without making a lot of 3's. but mizz st defends at 45% from field and 40% from 3. if loyola takes and hits a few more 3's than their avg of 6.5 they should get the cover.

[kingdom]

scrub matchup between lasalle and fordham. lasalle is 3-14 su against 9-9 fordham. fordham is -2.5 at home, but has lost 4 straight against lasalle with the closest game being 8 pts. lasalle has lost 4 straight and fordham has lost 6 in a row. curious to see will lasalle with all their struggles still have fordham's number.

lasalle was able to hold on to an early lead to win 73-71 as a dog and keep their win streak against fordham.

[kingdom]

Hot Purdue against very cold ohio st. Purdue is a -1.5 on road as they have won 6 of 7 su and 5 of 7 ats. ohio st going the other way having lost 4 in a row su and 5 in a row ats. last 2 years each team won on the others court by 1 point. ohio st. is 13-3 at home against purdue. i tend to side with the desperate team in these close matchups at home.

Purdue is still hot as they took care of osu 79-67 at home. looks like it's gonna be a rough year for osu as they are 0-5 in conference and next two at michigan and nebraska.

[kingdom]

TCU has blown texas out the last two at home by 15. only a 3 pt fav tonight and both teams have lost 3 of 4. Texas is 4-1 as a dog, but they will have to be really good tonight to keep this within the number.

TCU pulls out a close one 65-61 with a close cover at home.

[kingdom]

rhode island 4-0 against vcu in recent matchups with closest game being 7 pts. interesting they are only a 1 pt home fav tonight against a team they usually handle.

Rhode Island got off to a rough start but came back in 2h to get the win and cover 71-65 to continue their winning streak against vcu.

[kingdom]

Wisc is 2-4 in last 6 games and opened as -6 at illini and dropped to -4. illini can be competitive at home, but they have lost 6 of last 7 games overall. Wisc has dominated recently beating them by 25, 14, and 9 last 3 matchups. Wisc hasn't been consistent very much this season losing at home to minny and then last week beating michigan. you would think if they show up they can handle illin but interesting that line has moved 2 pts against them. i think that move will be enough for them to cover.

despite line move, wisc covers winning 72-60. illini put up decent effort but wisc offense was too efficient against them.

[kingdom]

i have a very simple capping philosophy in the san jose st/ wyoming matchup. when two teams suck really bad, take sjs and the points. who the hell is wyoming to be giving up 6 pts?

i guess it works as a strategy more often in nba for me. wyoming whooped up on sjs 59-46 to cover easily.

[kingdom]

the line moves has me taking a closer look at loyola/mizz st. loy opened at -5.5 and are now at -3. loyola is 4-0 ats in recent matchups while they have split su. mizz st. won both home games by 1 and 5. loyola has gotten hot since start of conference play going 5-1. mizz st. hasn't as they have gone 2-4 including losing their last two at home. interesting to see the line move in their favor as loyola does well against them and is playing good basketball. loyola shoots 50% from field without making a lot of 3's. but mizz st defends at 45% from field and 40% from 3. if loyola takes and hits a few more 3's than their avg of 6.5 they should get the cover.

mizz st. dominated loyola and didn't need any points. much better coaching and strategy throughout the game. they were motivated and made loyola work for every bucket. loyola shot 34 % to 63 for state. state shot 52 % from 3 making 12 of them. loyola shot 2 for 10 for 3 and only had 9 rebounds and 6 assists for the whole game. terrible showing. have to expect them to look good in their next game to wash off this embarrassment as they lost 70-35.

[kingdom]

LB st. and Cal- Northridge aren't very good. but lb has won 5 of their last 7 and csn has gone 7-2 ats in their last 9. they have split the last two matchups, but csn is 4-0 ats. lb won both matchups last year and opened up as a 1 pt fav and now sit as a 2 pt dog. interesting line move in this matchup. makes me lean csn

cal st.n cruised to an 86-71 win and easy cover now being 5-0 ats last 5 in the series.

[kingdom]

uc-irvine/ hawaii looks to be another close matchup. irvine opened -2 on road and has dropped to -21.5 uci is solid defensively and likes to hold teams under 70. they are also 9-3 on the road while hawaii is 9-2 at home and 6-2 ats. uci has won 4 of last 5 matchups. last year two games were decided by 1 pt, and each team also won on the others home court. hawaii has yet to score 70 against irvine in last 5 matchups and they will need to be close to it to have a chance at covering.

line had dropped from -2 to -1.5 and hawaii was able to cover in a close 75-74 loss in ot. had they scored 70 in regulation they would have won easily, but they only scored 64.

[kingdom]

georgia st./texas st. both off to great starts in conference. both teams are 5-1 in conference and have won 6 of last 7. georgia st. is 7-0 at home;2-4 ats. tx st. is 8-2 road; 6-3 ats. georgia st. is 1-4 ats last 5 as a fav with 4 of the games being within 5 pts. tx st. is 11-5 ats on the season. with gsu playing games very close and tx st. being a strong road team should be a really tight matchup. gsu opened as 3 pt fav and has moved to -3.5 and 4 at some books.

[kingdom]

mich st./iowa are 2 red hot teams. msu is a covering machine 15-3 ats as a fav, 8-0 ats in conf., and 11-1 ats last 12. iowa has won 5 in a row su/ats since purdue loss. mich st dominated first meeting this year 90-68 covering the 11 pt spread with ease. they are -5.5 road favs. iowa is 11-1 at home with only loss being to wisconsin. msu is dominant with a 17 pt winning differential. it could be a tough cover tonight as iowa plays really well at home. i can see it going either way as i think iowa keeps it in single digits, but not sure if under 6

[kingdom]

La Monroe opened as a 6pt fav against troy and is down to 4.5...troy is 2-5 ats last 7, but are 5-1 as a dog on the season. monroe has won 6 in a row ats with their last 3 games decided by 6 points total. these two teams keep it close as well with three games decided by 6 or less with troy winning two of the 3. line movement looks favorable for troy and another close game in the making.

[kingdom]

S. Alabama is 5-1ats in conference and have won 5 of last 6 ats. but they have lost 4 in a row and go to lafayette as a 9.5 pt dog. lafayette has beat s. ala by 26, 19, and 16 in last 3 matchups. s. ala 3rd leading scorer is questionable with a concussion. lafayette should have their way with them again and cover the -9.5

[kingdom]

wku opened as a 1 pt fav against s. miss and has moved to -2. wku is 4-7 on road but 7-4 ats. s.miss is 6-1 at home and 1-3 ats. s. miss plays solid defense and are having a decent season. but they have lost last 4 ats against wku and last two by 17 and 16 pts. both teams have played close games against decent teams pre conference. wku last 3 losses are by 5 pts combined. this game should be close as well. interesting to see if s. miss can break the streak or does wku get em again.

[kingdom]

rice coming home off 3 su road losses in a row. last 2 losses by 1 pt. they get mtsu who is 0-10 on the road. line was 5 and dropped to rice -4.5. i think rice goes out and seals a victory after playing last 2 hard as a dog.

[kingdom]

uab 1-5 as a dog. n. texas 1-6 ats at home. something gotta give. n. tex is a 6.5 point fave at home where they win, but don't put teams away. 4 of last 5 home games been decided by 4 or less. if trend continues uab may get the cover. 6.5 may be just enough against a team like n. texas that often plays it close.

[kingdom]

Charlotte is having a rough season at 5-13, but have won 6 in a row ats. utsa has won 6 of last 8 ats, but have lost their last 2 su/ats. teams split last year on each others court. i'm leaning charlotte to put up a good fight and keep their ats streak going.

[kingdom]

Detroit has been playing hard so far going 7-2 ats in last 9. Ill-chi has been struggling going 2-4 su/ats their last 6. but chi has beat detroit last 4 su in series and moved from -4.5 to -5.5 fav at home. detroit is 7-3 ats on road. another matchup of team playing well going against a team struggling that usually beats them.

[kingdom]

Marshall is 3-0 ats in last 3 matchups as they scored 90, 93, and 78 against l. tech. tech does better when they keep teams below 70. they are -4 tonight against marshall and total is 157. if marshall plays at their pace and game goes over they should cover as well.

[gojetsgomoxies]

great thread, i love the basic premise of spreads that don't necessarily make sense.

can you post your record? or at least identify which games are W or L?... otherwise, it's a bit tough to follow in a simple manner

[gojetsgomoxies]

i like some of your ideas alot, like taking points when two crapppy teams play.....

and at least highlighting when a team has improved alot and is facing a team that's owned them in the past. my sense is NCAAF is that you take the massively improved team here. no idea in other sports/leagues.

[kingdom]

Utah playing at Stanford in a game the home team has dominated in the series. Stanford is 5-0 su last 5 at home against utah. utah is 2-6 as a dog this year and stan 5-2 as a fav. if things hold to form stanford should get the win and cover.

[kingdom]

Washington is a 3 pt dog at Oregon. uw has won 7 in a row su and 5 in a row ats. Oregon isn't very dominant at home this year going 6-5. but washington has lost last 3 against oregon including to losses by 20+. washington is 5-0 su/ats in conference, but have to finally beat oregon to keep streak alive.

[kingdom]

Arizona has won 7 of last 8 and are 5-1 in conference. Usc is good at home going 9-2 su/7-4 ats. Arizona has won last 4 su/ats and havn't had a problem beating sc. usc is coming off a home beatdown of ucla and will try and break zona's hold on them.

update: arizona just moved to +1.5 20 minutes before game time.

update: usc now -2 right before game time after being +1 an hour ago.

[kingdom]

great thread, i love the basic premise of spreads that don't necessarily make sense.

can you post your record? or at least identify which games are W or L?... otherwise, it's a bit tough to follow in a simple manner

i don't pick all the games so i don't have a record. some are leans. i seem to do better with west coast teams. a lot of it is for trend and info data because i get confused by certain lines at times. i am looking for trends that are most common to take advantage of. i have been updating the games that win and lose as much as i can. i want to get a percentage of my leans and how they play out.

[kingdom]

ucsb is 14-3, 10-4 ats, 4-1 as a dog. yet they opened at -1 and are now +1.5 against fullerton, who is 6-12 and 5-11 ats. ucsb swept two matchups last year covering both games. they have won 8 of last 9 while fullerton has lost 7 of last 10. the clearly better team has moved to a dog. i wouldnt touch this game as ucsb seems to be too good a team to bet against. but again, i am curious how this results.

[jtoler]

hopefully fullerton wins

[kingdom]

St. Mary's opened as -3 and dropped to -1 against byu, a team they normally dominate going 6-1 ats/su against the last 3 years. two of the wins were at byu by double digits where byu is normally strong going 36-8 at home last 3 years including 9-1 this year. smc is 5-1 last 6 ats while byu is on a 2-7 ats run. also smc is 12-4 ats as a fav while byu is 0-5 as a dog. also 3-11 ats in games where the line is 150-159 total which makes line moves all the more intriguing. byu is 5-15 ats as a dog the last 3 years. maybe its a mark on calendar game. for some reason the line is moving against smc, the obviously better team.