Line Projections for the tourney through the finals, about 125 games.

FUqer · 03-14-18 07:25 PM

1st Round

Thursday

NC Greensboro (+8.4) nt Gonzaga

Davidson (+1.8) nt Kentucky

Loyola Chicago (-0.7) nt Miami Fl

Iona (+17.1) nt Duke

NC State (+2.1) nt Seton Hall

Montana (+9.7) nt Michigan

Texas Tech (-13.1) nt Stephen Austin

Penn (+12.7) nt Kansas

Rhode Island (-3.0) nt Oklahoma

Ohio St (-8.7) nt South Dakota St

Houston (-4.7) nt San Diego St

Tennessee (-13.6) nt Wright St

Buffalo (+8.4) nt Arizona

Virginia Tech (-2.4) nt Alabama

St.Bonaventure (+5.5) nt Florida

Villanova (+17.0) nt Radford

Friday

Murray St (+5.0) nt W.Virginia

Virginia (-26.5) nt UMBC

Charleston (+6.5) nt Auburn

CS Fullerton (+17.6) nt Purdue

Missouri (-2.8) nt Florida St

Lipscomb (+17.8) nt North Carolina

Providence (+2.5) nt Texas A&M

Butler (-2.6) nt Arkansas

Wichita St (-12.3) nt Marshall

Kansas St (+0.8) nt Creighton

Clemson (-5.3) nt New Mexico St

Michigan St (-14.7) nt Bucknell

Georgia St (+13.9) nt Cincinnati

Texas (-0.1) nt Nevada

Syracuse (+0.7) nt TCU

Arizona St (+4.1) nt TCU

________________________________________ ___________

Field of 32

Kentucky (-0.5) nt Arizona

Miami, FL (+4.7) nt Tennessee

Nevada (+7.8) nt Cincinnati

Creighton (+14.9) nt Virginia

Kansas St (+14.6) nt Virginia

Loyola Chi (+4.0) nt Tennessee

Texas (+8.2) nt Cincinnati

------

Missouri (+1.6) nt Xavier

Florida St (+4.0) nt Xavier

Ohio St (+1.3) nt Gonzaga

Houston (+3.3) nt Michigan

S.Dakota St (+10.2) nt Gonzaga

San Diego St (+8.0) nt Michigan

Texas A&M (+4.0) nt N.Carolina

Providence (+6.5) nt N.Carolina

--------

Virginia Tech (+9.9) nt Villanova

W.Virginia (-0.8) nt Wichita St

Murray St (+4.2) nt Wichita St

Florida (+2.1) nt Texas Tech

Butler (+5.9) nt Purdue

Arkansas (+8.0) nt Purdue

Alabama (+11.7) nt Villanova

Marshall (+13.0) nt W.Virginia

St. Bonaventure (+8.1) nt Texas Tech

---------

Clemson (-2.8) nt Auburn

Charleston (+9.2) nt Clemson

NC State (+6.6) nt Kansas

Oklahoma (+11.8) nt Duke

Seton Hall (+4.5) nt Kansas

New Mexico St (+1.5) nt Auburn

New Mexico St (-4.0) nt Charleston

Arizona St (+9.8) nt Michigan St

Syracuse (+6.9) nt Michigan St

TCU (+5.1) nt Michigan St

Rhode Island (+8.8) nt Duke

________________________________________ ___________

Sweet 16

Kentucky (+11.8) nt Virginia

Arizona (+12.4) nt Virginia

Creighton (+2.5) nt Arizona

Creighton (+3.0) nt Kentucky

Tennessee (+3.9) nt Cincinnati

Loyola Chi (+8.0) nt Cincinnati

---------

Gonzaga (-2.5) nt Xavier

Michigan (-3.1) nt N.Carolina

S.Dakota St (+7.1) nt Xavier

Ohio St (-1.2) nt Xavier

-------

W.Virginia (+6.3) nt Villanova

Wichita St (+7.1) nt Villanova

Texas Tech (+2.8) nt Purdue

Arkansas (+5.6) nt Texas Tech

Florida (+5.0) nt Purdue

-------

Clemson (+0.5) nt Kansas

Michigan St (+0.4) nt Duke

New Mexico St (+6.2) nt Kansas

Auburn (+3.8) nt Kansas

Seton Hall (+3.0) nt Clemson

Seton Hall (+1.2) nt Auburn

NC State (+6.0) nt Clemson

NC State (+3.3) nt Auburn

________________________________________ ___________

Elite 8

Cincinnati (+6.5) nt Virginia

Cincinnati (-6.9) nt Arizona

Cincinnati (-6.3) nt Kentucky

---------

Gonzaga (+1.2) nt Michigan

Gonzaga (-1.0) nt N.Carolina

Michigan (-5.2) nt Xavier

N.Carolina (-2.1) nt Xavier

---------

Texas Tech (+5.2) nt Villanova

Purdue (+2.3) nt Villanova

Florida (+7.8) nt Villanova

----------

Duke (-2.9) nt Kansas

Michigan St (-2.0) nt Kansas

________________________________________ ___________

Final 4

Michigan (+8.0) nt Virginia

Arizona (+2.8) nt Gonzaga

Michigan (+2.4) nt Cincinnati

Michigan (-4.0) nt Arizona

N.Carolina (+10.0) nt Virginia

N.Carolina (+4.5) nt Cincinnati

Virginia (-10.0) nt Gonzaga

Cincinnati (-3.5) nt Gonzaga

----------

Duke (+2.1) nt Villanova

Michigan St (+0.1) nt Purdue

Michigan St (+2.5) nt Villanova

Kansas (+5.0) nt Villanova

Duke (-1.6) nt Purdue

Texas Tech (+3.0) nt Duke

Texas Tech (+2.6) nt Michigan St

________________________________________ ___________

Finals

Villanova (+4.3) nt Virginia

Michigan St (+7.8) nt Virginia

Gonzaga (+4.7) nt Villanova

N.Carolina (+5.2) nt Villanova

Cincinnati (+1.2) nt Villanova

Cincinnati (-1.0) nt Duke

Cincinnati (-1.8) nt Michigan St

Gonzaga (+2.0) nt Duke

Gonzaga (+1.6) nt Michigan St

N.Carolina (+2.6) nt Michigan St

----------------------------

FUqer · 03-16-18 07:24 AM

Didn't foresee this as a potential match-up on my list.

Buffalo (+6.7) nt Kentucky

________________________________

FUqer · 03-17-18 01:31 PM

Another add, nobody saw this one.

UMBC (+11.0) nt Kansas St

FUqer · 03-18-18 08:52 PM

Some more adds.

Nevada (PK) nt Loyola Chicago
Kansas St (+1.9) nt Kentucky

Michigan (-5.5) nt Texas A&M

Syracuse (+6.5) nt Duke

FUqer · 03-18-18 11:52 PM

Florida St (+5.8) nt Gonzaga

FUqer · 03-23-18 12:46 AM

Kansas St (+0.3) nt Loyoloa Chicago
Michigan (-7.8) nt Florida St

FUqer · 03-25-18 02:18 AM

Loyola Chicago (+5.2) nt Michigan

FUqer · 03-26-18 12:29 PM

Villanova/Kansas game was already posted on the 14th and the line is exactly what I had it at, but for some reason I didn't have any Final projections with Michigan and Kansas in them so here are those.

Loyola Chicago (+8.5) nt Villanova

Loyola Chicago (+3.1) nt Kansas

Michigan (+3.2) nt Villanova

Michigan (-2.1) nt Kansas

FUqer · 03-26-18 01:28 PM

Originally Posted by FUqer

1st Round

Thursday

NC Greensboro (+8.4) nt Gonzaga

Davidson (+1.8) nt Kentucky

Loyola Chicago (-0.7) nt Miami Fl

Iona (+17.1) nt Duke

NC State (+2.1) nt Seton Hall

Montana (+9.7) nt Michigan

Texas Tech (-13.1) nt Stephen Austin

Penn (+12.7) nt Kansas

Rhode Island (-3.0) nt Oklahoma

~~Ohio St (-8.7) nt South Dakota St~~

Houston (-4.7) nt San Diego St

Tennessee (-13.6) nt Wright St

Buffalo (+8.4) nt Arizona

Virginia Tech (-2.4) nt Alabama

St.Bonaventure (+5.5) nt Florida

Villanova (+17.0) nt Radford

Friday

Murray St (+5.0) nt W.Virginia

Virginia (-26.5) nt UMBC

Charleston (+6.5) nt Auburn

CS Fullerton (+17.6) nt Purdue

Missouri (-2.8) nt Florida St

Lipscomb (+17.8) nt North Carolina

~~Providence (+2.5) nt Texas A&M~~

Butler (-2.6) nt Arkansas

Wichita St (-12.3) nt Marshall

Kansas St (+0.8) nt Creighton

Clemson (-5.3) nt New Mexico St

~~Michigan St (-14.7) nt Bucknell~~

Georgia St (+13.9) nt Cincinnati

Texas (-0.1) nt Nevada

Syracuse (+0.7) nt TCU

~~Arizona St (+4.1) nt TCU~~

________________________________________ ___________

Field of 32

~~Kentucky (-0.5) nt Arizona~~

~~Miami, FL (+4.7) nt Tennessee~~

Nevada (+7.8) nt Cincinnati

~~Creighton (+14.9) nt Virginia~~

~~Kansas St (+14.6) nt Virginia~~

Loyola Chi (+4.0) nt Tennessee

~~Texas (+8.2) nt Cincinnati~~

------

~~Missouri (+1.6) nt Xavier~~

Florida St (+4.0) nt Xavier

Ohio St (+1.3) nt Gonzaga

Houston (+3.3) nt Michigan

~~S.Dakota St (+10.2) nt Gonzaga~~

~~San Diego St (+8.0) nt Michigan~~

Texas A&M (+4.0) nt N.Carolina

~~Providence (+6.5) nt N.Carolina~~

--------

~~Virginia Tech (+9.9) nt Villanova~~

~~W.Virginia (-0.8) nt Wichita St~~

~~Murray St (+4.2) nt Wichita St~~

Florida (+2.1) nt Texas Tech

Butler (+5.9) nt Purdue

~~Arkansas (+8.0) nt Purdue~~

Alabama (+11.7) nt Villanova

~~Marshall (+13.0) nt W.Virginia~~

~~St. Bonaventure (+8.1) nt Texas Tech~~

---------

Clemson (-2.8) nt Auburn

~~Charleston (+9.2) nt Clemson~~

~~NC State (+6.6) nt Kansas~~

~~Oklahoma (+11.8) nt Duke~~

~~Seton Hall (+4.5) nt Kansas~~

~~New Mexico St (+1.5) nt Auburn~~

~~New Mexico St (-4.0) nt Charleston~~

~~Arizona St (+9.8) nt Michigan St~~

Syracuse (+6.9) nt Michigan St

~~TCU (+5.1) nt Michigan St~~

Rhode Island (+8.8) nt Duke

________________________________________ ___________

Sweet 16

~~Kentucky (+11.8) nt Virginia~~

~~Arizona (+12.4) nt Virginia~~

~~Creighton (+2.5) nt Arizona~~

~~Creighton (+3.0) nt Kentucky~~

~~Tennessee (+3.9) nt Cincinnati~~

~~Loyola Chi (+8.0) nt Cincinnati~~

---------

~~Gonzaga (-2.5) nt Xavier~~

~~Michigan (-3.1) nt N.Carolina~~

~~S.Dakota St (+7.1) nt Xavier~~

~~Ohio St (-1.2) nt Xavier~~

-------

W.Virginia (+6.3) nt Villanova

~~Wichita St (+7.1) nt Villanova~~

Texas Tech (+2.8) nt Purdue

~~Arkansas (+5.6) nt Texas Tech~~

~~Florida (+5.0) nt Purdue~~

-------

Clemson (+0.5) nt Kansas

~~Michigan St (+0.4) nt Duke~~

~~New Mexico St (+6.2) nt Kansas~~

~~Auburn (+3.8) nt Kansas~~

~~Seton Hall (+3.0) nt Clemson~~

~~Seton Hall (+1.2) nt Auburn~~

~~NC State (+6.0) nt Clemson~~

~~NC State (+3.3) nt Auburn~~

________________________________________ ___________

Elite 8

~~Cincinnati (+6.5) nt Virginia~~

~~Cincinnati (-6.9) nt Arizona~~

~~Cincinnati (-6.3) nt Kentucky~~

---------

~~Gonzaga (+1.2) nt Michigan~~

~~Gonzaga (-1.0) nt N.Carolina~~

~~Michigan (-5.2) nt Xavier~~

~~N.Carolina (-2.1) nt Xavier~~

---------

Texas Tech (+5.2) nt Villanova

~~Purdue (+2.3) nt Villanova~~

~~Florida (+7.8) nt Villanova~~

----------

Duke (-2.9) nt Kansas

~~Michigan St (-2.0) nt Kansas~~

________________________________________ ___________

Final 4

~~Michigan (+8.0) nt Virginia~~

~~Arizona (+2.8) nt Gonzaga~~

~~Michigan (+2.4) nt Cincinnati~~

~~Michigan (-4.0) nt Arizona~~

~~N.Carolina (+10.0) nt Virginia~~

~~N.Carolina (+4.5) nt Cincinnati~~

~~Virginia (-10.0) nt Gonzaga~~

~~Cincinnati (-3.5) nt Gonzaga~~

----------

~~Duke (+2.1) nt Villanova~~

~~Michigan St (+0.1) nt Purdue~~

~~Michigan St (+2.5) nt Villanova~~

Kansas (+5.0) nt Villanova

~~Duke (-1.6) nt Purdue~~

~~Texas Tech (+3.0) nt Duke~~

~~Texas Tech (+2.6) nt Michigan St~~

________________________________________ ___________

Finals

~~Villanova (+4.3) nt Virginia~~

~~Michigan St (+7.8) nt Virginia~~

~~Gonzaga (+4.7) nt Villanova~~

~~N.Carolina (+5.2) nt Villanova~~

~~Cincinnati (+1.2) nt Villanova~~

~~Cincinnati (-1.0) nt Duke~~

~~Cincinnati (-1.8) nt Michigan St~~

~~Gonzaga (+2.0) nt Duke~~

~~Gonzaga (+1.6) nt Michigan St~~

~~N.Carolina (+2.6) nt Michigan St~~

----------------------------

Model projections above would of been 27-18 ATS, based on closing lines. (excluding pushes & not including the projections that were added)

DOM_Toretto · 03-26-18 01:29 PM

Michigan would be a 2pt fav against Kansas?!?!

FUqer · 03-26-18 03:23 PM

Originally Posted by DOM_Toretto

Michigan would be a 2pt fav against Kansas?!?!

That's what my math came out to, I even checked again. I don't make them up, nor do I say that's exactly what the line will be. The numbers have seemed to favor Michigan over the actual spread by about 2-4 points or so in every game so far, so I expect it to be closer to pick'em or even up to +2 for Michigan. Even KP has Michigan slightly ahead of Kansas though.

32.5% of the time projections have been within one point
66% of the time projections have been within 2 points
81% of the time projections have been within 3 points

Record is 30-16 is projections is 5+ points off line

784 game sample

FUqer · 03-26-18 03:31 PM

Michigan Projections vs actual line so far in comparison

off 0.3 vs Montana
off 0.2 vs Houston
off 3.0 vs Texas A&M
off 3.3 vs Florida St

Michigan -2.1 nt Kansas

SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks				Best Sportsbooks List
#1 FanDuel	SBR rating 4.8/5	Review	#6 BetRivers	SBR rating 4.1/5	Review
#2 Caesars	SBR rating 4.7/5	Review	#7 Fanatics	SBR rating 4.1/5	Review
#3 DraftKings	SBR rating 4.7/5	Review	#8 Betway	SBR rating 3.8/5	Review
#4 BetMGM	SBR rating 4.6/5	Review	#9 Borgata	SBR rating 3.5/5	Review
#5 bet365	SBR rating 4.6/5	Review	#10 ClutchBet	SBR rating 2.9/5	Review

Line Projections for the tourney through the finals, about 125 games.

Thread Tools

Line Projections for the tourney through the finals, about 125 games.