Hitting ~60% over the last 2 weeks.
I've been testing out a new method for selecting NCAABB games. I started applying it January 29th but I've only been posting the plays since Feb 7th on my SBR spreadsheet http://tanko.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/ It is hitting ~60% since Jan 29th and about 60% since Feb 7th (see on the spreadsheet). It's up about 19 units.
This is a pure statistical method for evaluating games. It does not account for injuries or W/L trends vs the spread, etc... Applying these other factors may generate better results. It utilizes the 4 Factors of Baseketball Success to estimate a game spread, compares that spread to the betting line, and then makes a selection utilizing a 2.5 pt overlay.
You can see it regularly selects the "dogs" (which I'm trying to understand further) but it seems to be working well regardless. It does not account for differences between team's strength of schedule (although this is somewhat baked into the 4 Factors data) so applying it to non-conference games may not be as accruate. Also, it picks A LOT of games (e.g. 32 games on Saturday).
I try to run it in the mornings, using the morning lines. I'll post it for a couple of weeks to see if it continues to perform well. If someone see an error in the spreadsheet let me know. With all the picks, it is a pain keeping the spreadsheet updated accurately. And as usual, use these picks at your own risk.
Here are the selections for the last couple of days.
Good Luck.