Can Trae Young's Steph Curry-like game keep up in the NBA?
Can Trae Young's Steph Curry-like game keep up in the NBA?
Jonathan GivonyMike Schmitz ESPN INSDER
Midway through the college basketball season, Oklahoma freshman Trae Young has established himself as a front-runner for national player of the year honors. The 19-year-old is averaging an incredible 29.4 points and 10.6 assists in just 32 minutes per game, leading Oklahoma to a 12-1 record and top-10 ranking, becoming must-watch basketball every time the Sooners are on TV.
Young has been getting better and better throughout the season, brushing off arguably his worst game in a loss to Arkansas at the PK80 and playing at an unbelievably high level since. He has helped Oklahoma notch road wins at USC, Wichita State and TCU, with a neutral-court win over Oregon for good measure.
Oklahoma already has the fifth-best NCAA tournament résumé in the country, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, but the Sooners are about to head into an extremely difficult stretch versus two top-10 teams, facing West Virginia on the road and Texas Tech at home. These are by far the two best defenses Oklahoma has faced, which should tell us even more about Young and just how sustainable his incredible 13-game stretch is projecting to the rest of the college season and beyond.
Are we watching the makings of an NBA star, or are some concerns about his pro fit legitimate? ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz discuss.
Where did Young's leap come from?
Givony: What's interesting about Young is that he was one of the more visible prospects on the high school and AAU circuit yet still wasn't considered an elite recruit in what appears to be just an average high school class outside of the top 10. The four major recruiting services ranked him anywhere from No. 16 to No. 30, and he notably wasn't invited to the Nike Hoop Summit despite participating in two different USA Basketball camps and playing a decent role on the gold-medal-winning team at the FIBA Americas Under-18 Championship.
In fact, Young struggled badly in FIBA play against fairly lackluster competition in the summer or 2016, going just 7-of-34 from the field.
The only logical explanation for the explosion we've witnessed this season is that Young has improved exceptionally since the spring of 2017, when he was scouted heavily by NBA personnel and certainly didn't stand out as a potential one-and-done lottery pick. He also seems to have made a real shift in his mentality and approach, something his head coach, future Hall of Famer Lon Kruger, certainly deserves a lot of credit for (as well as putting him in position to succeed).
Digging deeper into the data at our disposal, that becomes even clearer. Thanks to our friends at Krossover, we have a huge sample size of 107 games Young played in prior to college, which shed quite a bit of insight into the type of player he was before arriving at Oklahoma. This data indicates a number of areas in which Young has shown massive improvement, particularly in terms of his shooting and passing.
One of the reasons Young didn't gain more traction as a high school prospect was the fact that he was considered somewhat of a selfish, shoot-first point guard who wasn't quite as efficient as you might hope considering his style of play.
In the 53 games of data we have from Young's junior and senior years of high school, he posted just a 1-1 assist-to-turnover rate (4.4 assists and 4.4 turnovers per game), which is shocking considering what he's doing at the college level (10.6 assists and 4.2 turnovers, a 2.5-1 rate). For whatever reason, Young wasn't as willing a ball mover in high school, and his style of play didn't lead to wins either, with his Norman North team going 19-6 and not even being one of the eight teams qualifying for the Oklahoma Class 6A State Championship Tournament. Kruger has done a great job of getting Young to buy into being as much of a playmaker as he is a scorer, as evidenced by Young's currently leading the NCAA in assists.
Things were different at the AAU level. In 42 games in the Nike EYBL, Young posted 6.0 assists and 3.9 turnovers for a 1.5 ratio -- better than in high school but still not even approaching what he's doing in college. His 0.22 pure point ratio -- an adjusted version of assist-to-turnover ratio that factors in pace and the value of assists vs. TOs -- certainly pales in comparison with the 7.73 PPR that currently ranks fourth in all of college basketball. Young also won a lot more, going 32-10 in the EYBL and securing the championship in 2016. His team was ridiculously loaded, with the likes of Michael Porter Jr., Jontay Porter, Carte'Are Gordon and a host of other high-level Division I prospects.
Young hasn't just become a more unselfish facilitator, he's also increased his offensive efficiency by leaps and bounds, mainly due to his improved 3-point shooting. Despite playing with a shorter 3-point line in high school and AAU, Young hit just 35.8 percent of his (more than 1,000) attempts in 107 games. He's improved that to 40 percent in college while continuing to fire up a ridiculous 10 3-point attempts per contest.
The degree of difficulty on most of these attempts is what is perhaps most impressive, as most of them come from pulling up off the dribble, including many from well beyond the NBA 3-point line, which makes him virtually impossible to defend at the college level. Young is also getting to the free throw line more prolifically in college than he did in high school/AAU, seeing his free throw rate rise by 25 percent. He gets to the line almost 10 times per game and makes 86 percent of his attempts once there, a big part of why he's posting an absurd true shooting percentage of 65 despite his ridiculously high volume, currently leading the NCAA in usage rate.
We'll have to see if Young can continue to sustain these remarkable numbers, but even if he falls off somewhat, he's so far ahead of anything we've ever seen at the college level that it's virtually impossible not to consider him a high lottery pick at the moment.
Scouting Young's improved PG play
Givony: Mike, what have you noticed on film and in person from scouting Young at the high school level and now college?
Schmitz: While Young has become an internet phenomenon with his deep pull-up jumpers, what has really stood out from an NBA projection standpoint has been his evolution as a facilitator. We've seen ultra-confident guards win America over with 30-footer after 30-footer at the college level (see: Jimmer Fredette), but few have had that dynamic of a shooting stroke and tremendous ball skills and court vision. As you mentioned, some of Young's perceived limitations as a pure point guard played a role in his lack of NBA buzz going into his freshman season.
"Growing up, I was just a shooter," Young told ESPN in December. "I wanted a guy like [De'Aaron] Fox to bring up the ball and me be on the wing and I just knock down shots. I've always been able to shoot, but I had to build my game to be a point guard. At this level, I was going to have to be a guy who can handle the ball. That's something I've had to learn over the last few years."
Through 12 NCAA games, Young leads the country in assists per game (10.6) and assists per 40 minutes (13.1). A bit turnover-prone, Young ranks 16th in the NCAA in assist-to-turnover ratio among players averaging at least five assists per contest. While some of his numbers are a bit inflated due to sheer volume (second in the NCAA in usage), his point guard play looks translatable to the NBA level given the skill and nuance behind it. He's still a score-first player who benefits from having the ultimate green light, but he's also a crisp, dynamic ball handler who does a tremendous job using deception and creativity to facilitate from all three levels.
To me, Young is the most skilled player in college basketball and the top point guard prospect in the NCAA at this stage, largely due to his tremendous blend of shot-making, facilitating, pick-and-roll play and no-fear style.
What stands out most about Young as a playmaker is his ability to create open looks for his teammates without getting a piece of the paint and despite not having elite size. He's an excellent live-dribble passer, darting dimes all over the floor with either hand. He isn't blessed with Rajon Rondo-sized mitts, but he's able to control the ball impressively without having to get his off hand involved for support, which often catches the defense off guard given that he can also pull up or use a hesitation dribble to get into the paint.
Of Young's 136 assists, 22 are of the live-dribble variety, with 11 coming courtesy of his off hand. He can hit the pop man or roll man with his left from the perimeter without collapsing the defense.
Whether it's right- or left-handed, his ability to whip passes around with extreme confidence is unique. He uses both sides of the floor impressively, and shows pinpoint accuracy.
While he can still be a bit turnover-prone, he regularly avoids pressure with his sharp ballhandling and does a great job of not getting too sped up, something he credits to studying Steve Nash.
"I love how cerebral [Nash] was," Young said. "That's one guy who I've never met but I want to meet him so bad. Just pick his brain and learn from him. Just his footwork. I've watched a lot of film on him. Smaller guard, but he knew how to get to his spots. He knew how to find others and make them look good. He just knew how to control the game."
Although, like Nash and Stephen Curry, Young is not the most physical specimen, he does an excellent job of using his pull-up threat and change of pace to get into the paint and create for others. Defenders are forced to take away his air space, allowing him to play off of hang dribbles and get to the second level of the defense. Defenders have to respect his jumper out to 30 feet, which makes him a nightmare cover when coupled with his handle and vision.
"It definitely helps because you have to worry about that," Young said. "You don't have to only worry about me driving around you and finding someone else and scoring that way, you also have to worry about me shooting the ball. That definitely helps. It's helped me, being able to score so easily, because you have to worry about me doing multiple things instead of just one."
Young also does a nice job of operating at different speeds in pick-and-roll, keeping the big defender guessing and eventually dropping the ball off or throwing lobs to the roller.
He's comfortable either splitting ball screens or getting low to beat the hedge man and eventually finding spot-up shooters while on the move. Pick-and-roll makes up 41.1 percent of his offensive possessions, and his ball-screen passes generate 1.189 points per possession (82nd percentile), according to Synergy Sports.
He can get swallowed up in the paint at times given his size, but he's shifty and creative with strong timing and accuracy as a passer, which should translate to the wide-open, ball-screen-heavy NBA game.
The last area in which Young impresses as a facilitator is in transition. He's constantly looking to push with pace or whip the ball ahead to open teammates regardless of whether it will lead to an assist. He's laser-sharp with his deliveries and regularly threads the needle with bounce passes through traffic.
The fact that 44.9 percent of his total assists come in transition could be a bit of a red flag in terms of how his half-court facilitating will translate, but his ball-screen play supports the fact that he's more than just a fast-break-reliant playmaker who will struggle when the floor shrinks. He can also pass out of quick actions, sprinting off screens and reading the defense instinctually. The fact that he doesn't have elite tools or John Wall-like burst to rely on could show up late in games at the highest level, but overall, his combination of ballhandling, pull-up mastery and facilitating from all three levels should make him an above-average NBA playmaker.
"I feel like I fit really well in the NBA," Young said. "I feel like a lot of teams are going to that now -- trying to find people who can really shoot, spread the offense. I would love to play with guys who can really knock down shots, and I feel like I would complement their game because now the point guard can't help as much off of me as they would maybe someone else."
Historical comparisons
Schmitz: JG, what can you tell us about how Young's production stacks up historically?
Givony: It's easy and fun to look at how Young's numbers compare historically with other college players using our extensive database, which goes back decades and has every player drafted since 1984.
The first stat to look at is Young's unique high-usage/high-efficiency combo, both of which are historic when viewed in tandem. Only four players in our database have posted a usage rate better than 32 percent and an offensive rating exceeding 120. We threw Curry in at the end for comparison's sake despite his not making the cut.
Even ignoring efficiency, Young would have one of the highest usage rates of any player drafted in our database. The only four players who exceeded his 37.1 percent? Curry, CJ McCollum, Morris Almond and Fredette, all of whom were much older than the 19-year-old Young at the same stage.
Similarly, it's extremely difficult to find playmaking guards (over 5 assists per-40) in Young's ilk who have been able to score so prolifically (over 30 points per-40 minutes), even when lowering the efficiency barrier to just a 55 percent true shooting percentage (well under Young's 65 percent). To find anyone who has even remotely come close to doing what Young has, we have to look all the way back to 1991, when Sam Cassell was tearing up the juco ranks for San Jacinto. But Cassell wasn't able to come close to replicating these numbers as a junior or senior once he transitioned to Division I with Florida State, amplifying even more how unique Young's production is historically
Remaining question marks
Givony: Mike, we know that Young has been producing at an elite rate since the college season kicked off.
What can you tell us about what scouts will be monitoring moving forward? What are the question marks they still have?
Schmitz: It's hard to poke holes in Young's game given his unprecedented production, but there's a reason he's still not seen as a potential No. 1 overall pick, or even the top guard in the draft class according to some who still prefer Alabama's Collin Sexton. Virtually every concern about Young is size-related, as his closest comparisons from a purely physical perspective are Seth Curry, Shabazz Napier and Tyus Jones.
Due to his so-so physical profile, NBA scouts still have some concerns.
Finishing/scoring efficiently
The fact that so much of Young's scoring output is predicated on deep 3s and trips to the free throw line is certainly reason to wonder how efficiently he'll be able to score at the NBA level. His shooting stroke isn't going anywhere, but can Young be a threat to score inside the arc against a set defense? He has feathery touch on floaters with either hand (12-of-17, leading the NCAA in floater efficiency), which will definitely help him neutralize the length and athleticism of NBA rim protectors. But so many of his monster scoring nights have been partially a product of his number of trips to the free throw line -- 18 attempts each against TCU (39 points) and Oregon (43 points). He's attempting 11.8 free throws per 40 minutes, which is fifth highest in the NCAA. He's crafty, deceptive and excellent at drawing contact for his size.
"I feel like I'm a lot stronger than a lot of people think," Young said. "People say I'm not as strong, but I say, 'How could I not be as strong and be able to take the hits that I do and get fouled?' I just feel like I'm a lot smarter than my defender. Just knowing, especially in college, you can't touch anybody, so no one can stay in front of me if you can't touch me, so I just know how to get by you, how to force you to grab me to draw fouls."
Historically speaking, however, free throw attempts don't always translate seamlessly to the NBA. Take some of the following former top-10 picks, for example. Bulldozer Marcus Smart averaged 8.8 free throw attempts per 40 minutes during his college career and attempts only 3.7 free throws per 40 at the NBA level. Jaylen Brown took 9.5 per 40 at Cal -- he has gotten to the line only 4.0 times per 40 during his NBA career. Some guards have stayed fairly consistent from the NCAA to the NBA -- Kemba Walker and Damian Lillard -- and superstars such as Kyrie Irving and Curry are so skilled that the dip in free throws hasn't affected their overall output. But few have lived at the free throw line quite like Young, and it's fair to question how generous the NBA whistle will be when he doesn't quite have the elite size, physicality or explosiveness of free throw mavens such as James Harden and Russell Westbrook.
When he has been faced with length and athleticism in the paint, Young has had some struggles finishing, as he's shooting only 45.2 percent at the rim in the half court, according to Synergy. He makes about 1.5 shots at the rim in the half court per game, speaking to how much he relies on pull-ups and free throws.
While he's shooting 63.2 percent from 2 in four games against teams under .500, Young is shooting a still respectable 50.7 percent inside the arc in eight games against teams over .500. His handle, pull-up threat and change of pace will allow him to get into the paint at the NBA level, and the fact that he can facilitate will really help him, but he'll certainly have an adjustment to make.
"That's something I'm continuing to work on right now," Young said of his finishing. "There's a few times in games when it would be better if I came off two feet. That's something that playing for a coach like coach Kruger, he notices, and we're working on that right now. But I feel like I'm pretty good at finishing at the rim. I like going off one leg. Blowing by you and jumping into you and just trying to find balance that way. I like a lot of floaters, I learned that from Steve Nash. A guy like Kyrie [Irving] is really good at using the glass and doing stuff like that, so I learned a lot of using the glass stuff from Kyrie."
Young also benefits greatly from the freedom of having the keys to Oklahoma's offense. Will he have a shorter leash at the NBA level? Can he be as effective with fewer possessions? The fact that he can shoot on the move while playing off the ball certainly helps him, but these are still questions that scouts are kicking around as they gauge Young's long-term outlook.
Defensive impact
NBA teams also want to see if Young can develop into a passable defender. Curry has proved that you don't need elite size and length to be a plus on the defensive end, which certainly bodes well for Young. With that said, he has long been an offense-first player and will have to dedicate himself on the other side of the floor. While Sexton is a strong, long, defensive bulldog, Young projects as a one-position defender who can stand to up his intensity. His wavering effort level is self-admittedly a function of his offensive role on a team that ranks 40th in the NCAA in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom.com, despite holding a 12-1 record.
"I feel like that's definitely an area I can work on. ... I also feel like I'm an underrated defender," Young said. "I don't like gambling as much. In college basketball, especially for my team, my team needs me out there on the floor. Me being not as aggressive on the defensive end, I can't let someone draw a foul or two on me real quick. There's a reason why I'm not as aggressive on the defensive end. I still feel like that's an area where I need to continue to show and get better at, but I feel like that's why I'm not as aggressive on the defensive end. I know my team needs me out there on the floor."
While he has some instincts, quick hands and sneaky toughness, it has yet to show consistently defensively. For one, he can play with more urgency getting over the top (or underneath) ball screens.
And he's too often willing to allow opposing guards to get into the teeth of the defense.
Maybe more concerning than just the so-so effort, Young's size and length at 6-foot-2, 176 pounds with a 6-4 wingspan limit him against bigger guards.
The NBA is a versatility-driven league, and having defenders who can hold up versus switches has tremendous value. This is an area in which Young struggles, as he'll have to play with more grit and vigor to make up for his average physical tools.
How he evolves as a defender will come down to how willing he is to buy in on that end. As we've seen with another college star, Malik Monk, it's hard to stay on the floor at the NBA level if you don't defend. Young is clearly a superior offensive player and different than Monk as a prospect, but the point is that defense matters to NBA head coaches, and Young will have to prove he can be at least adequate on that end as he gets stronger. If his offensive improvement and overall impressive approach to the game are any indication, I'd expect him to grow defensively when put in a situation in which he's held accountable.
Whether or not NBA teams think he can develop into an adequate defender and finisher will likely go a long way in determining when he hears his name called come June, but the success of skill-based guards such as Curry has undoubtedly helped Young's stock moving forward.
The Norman native is a hoops junkie with an equally impressive blend of confidence, humility and basketball savvy. The son of a former player, he's the type of person teams will want to bet on from an approach-to-the-game standpoint, as he's likely to do everything in his power to maximize his physical potential. Despite some lingering concerns, Young has become the top point guard prospect in the draft.
Givony: We've learned quite a bit about Young in his 13 games in college, but there are still some hurdles in his way en route to winning player of the year honors and cementing himself as a potential top-five draft pick. Luckily for us, his schedule is absolutely loaded with challenging matchups in the next month alone that will be great barometers for scouts to evaluate him against.
Here are some games to mark down on the calendar in the next 30 days:
Sat., Jan. 6 | At West Virginia | 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Young matches up with arguably the top defensive point guard in the NCAA in Jevon Carter, on the road. West Virginia is the eighth-best defensive team in college basketball, according to BPI.
Tue., Jan. 9 | Vs. Texas Tech | 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU
The Red Raiders are the third-best defense in the NCAA and will certainly have a game plan in place to slow down Young. Long-armed senior point guard Keenan Evans is having a great season and will be eager to give his own pro stock a boost by matching up favorably with the hotshot freshman.
Tue., Jan. 23 | Vs. Kansas | 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Jayhawks have surprisingly lost three home games already but still have a top-10 team and plenty of guards to throw at Young. This is a marquee matchup for senior point guard Devonte' Graham, and he has proved capable of shutting down opponents in the past.
Sat., Jan. 27 | At Alabama | 2:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
This is a dream matchup for NBA scouts, pitting the draft's top two point guard prospects -- Young and Sexton -- against each other head-to-head. Alabama still hasn't cemented itself as an NCAA tournament team and a win here would certainly go a long way in improving its résumé.
Sat., Feb. 3 | At Texas | 6 p.m. ET, ESPN
Another dream matchup for NBA scouts, with Mohamed Bamba manning the paint for the Longhorns' top-five defense. Can Young continue to get to the free throw line at his usual rate against the athletes Texas has on its roster? Can he get his shot off over Bamba on switches and around the rim? This will be a very interesting game to study.
Mon., Feb. 5 | Vs. West Virginia | 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Another meeting with Jevon Carter and West Virginia looms on the horizon.
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Can Trae Young's Steph Curry-like game keep up in the NBA?
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