[2daBank]

Agree with your disagreement with KP. If you look the reason Clara's pace is so slow cause their opponents have been slow to shoot, shouldn't have that problem with sc!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Agree with your disagreement with KP. If you look the reason Clara's pace is so slow cause their opponents have been slow to shoot, shouldn't have that problem with sc!!

Glad to be on the same side. Just hope Santa Clara can do its part.

Take a a look at Davis for Friday. Probably gonna make a small ML play too on that one.

[2daBank]

Glad to be on the same side. Just hope Santa Clara can do its part.

Take a a look at Davis for Friday. Probably gonna make a small ML play too on that one.

Will do. Was planning on just chilling till Saturday but got bored and thought that over looked solid. Still bored so I'll check them out.

Far as Clara doing their part im not too worried. Take and make good amount of 3s and sc perimeter d not all that hot. Long as they get in 60s should be golden.

[2daBank]

Feels like one those get right games where the fav runs it up on a little guy after getting their butts whipped last several games by legit comp.

[HeeluvaGuy]

We see this one alike. BOL!

[2daBank]

Little worried bout Davis lack of size/rebounding but San Fran doesn't exactly feed it down low much with success and they take entirely too many 3s considering how poorly they shoot it.. definitely dog or nothing.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-0 night. Never a doubt, right? Kenpom was right on about the pace in that one. Fortunately, we didn't need he extra possessions.

Thread: 37-35 (+2.29u)

[2daBank]

I couldn't get that 140.5, ended up with a push,, like I said we needed Clara to get into 60s and fukkers came up just short. Good get on the number!

[HeeluvaGuy]

I couldn't get that 140.5, ended up with a push,, like I said we needed Clara to get into 60s and fukkers came up just short. Good get on the number!

USC probably missed 10 shots inside three feet. But considering how this one started, a push was a win.

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-1 Friday.

Thread: 37-36 (+1.19u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's what I have for Saturday so far with some short notes:

2:30 Central Michigan/Southern Utah u155
I have this game at 67 possessions (kenpom 71). At that pace this one should stay well under 155. CMU hasn’t played a D-1 game in the 150s.

3:30 Illinois St/Ole Miss o147
I get 73 possessions for this one. At that pace Ole Miss shouldn’t have any trouble doing its part. We’ll need the Redbirds to get to the 70s, which should be doable.

4:00 College of Charleston/Rhode Island o135
I get 70 possessions, which is close to the kenpom number. Neither team is stellar offensively, but they don’t have to be if we can get to 70 possessions, especially if URI can get easy transition baskets and C of C can get to the free throw line.

4:30 Clemson/Florida o144.5
74+ possessions

8:00 SEMO/Kansas St o145
I get a decent pace at around 72 possessions. K-State should have no trouble scoring. We’ll need SEMO to chip in 65+. They haven’t played anyone as good as K-State, but they have scored 70+ in 9 of 10 games.

8:00 North Dakota/Gonzaga o160
I think Gonzaga gets 100 or so here, which should be enough to get us to the over.

[CappinTerp]

Yea bro,hope we all have a profitable day !!.......

[Louisvillekid1]

Get em

[HeeluvaGuy]

One addition:

4:00 Fullerton/California o139

[doubledime]

Short and concise analysis. Like it Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

4-3 on Saturday. It wasn't pretty, but I'll take it. Three of the wins were laughers, and a couple of the losses could have easily swung our way.

Thread: 41-39 (+1.89u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

First one for Sunday:
4:00 Penn St/George Mason u145
I have 69 possessions here and I don’t think George Mason can score enough at that pace to put this one over.

[Louisvillekid1]

Hella

can i speak freely?

Your approach is next to none

and you being happy w/ 5-15x

tells me your units 1k +

i wanna recruit you on my team

if your willing

Dm me

-building life changing $$$ our goal

[HeeluvaGuy]

^Thanks for the compliment. I'm not sure how to respond to the rest, but I'm intrigued.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Still tinkering a bit with Sunday:

5:00 Texas St/Colorado St u135
I agree with kenpom on a low possession game here (64). I actually see a way it could go lower. Regardless, the upper end of my estimate for this one is 132, and both teams would probably have to deviate pretty far from their norms to get there.

[Louisvillekid1]

Great work

[HeeluvaGuy]

Great work

Thanks. The second one was a weird game, but a win is a win I guess.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-0 day. The last game was weird with 73 first half points and then CSU made only 3 FGs in the second half. Their 17 made FTs was the only reason it was close late. The heavy foul calls added a couple of extra possessions, but fortunately the teams cooled off in the second.

Thread: 43-39 (+3.89u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Monday:

Northeastern/Kent St u140.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 Youngstown St/Idaho St u159

[jameski999]

If you have time can you share your numbers for this Kansas/Omaha game tonight. Just looks like a lot of points will be scored. Would I be crazy to think Kansas has a chance to put up 105-107 points?

[Louisvillekid1]

Gl today

i think Kansas could have 50 @ half

but maybe pull off late

[HeeluvaGuy]

If you have time can you share your numbers for this Kansas/Omaha game tonight. Just looks like a lot of points will be scored. Would I be crazy to think Kansas has a chance to put up 105-107 points?

Not crazy, but this is a difficult game for me. Omaha is atrocious defensively. Using really conservative numbers, I get 83 points for KU. But a more realistic approach gives me 93-96. Honestly, KU should be able to score whatever it wants, but the wide range in my numbers kind of illustrates how sensitive these games with extreme efficiencies can be. I was looking at this one last night at 153/154, and should have just played it. But I waited and missed the good line.

FWIW, I ran my power ratings based model for the first this season for today's games and I get 107-66. The model isn't very sophisticated, however, and is just a tool that I use.

BOL with whatever you decide!

[HeeluvaGuy]

For anyone interested, here's a link to my model predictions: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I don't think I'll have the time to keep this up daily, so I'm not sure how useful it will be.

[doubledime]

For anyone interested, here's a link to my model predictions: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I don't think I'll have the time to keep this up daily, so I'm not sure how useful it will be.

Always good stuff

[jameski999]

Not crazy, but this is a difficult game for me. Omaha is atrocious defensively. Using really conservative numbers, I get 83 points for KU. But a more realistic approach gives me 93-96. Honestly, KU should be able to score whatever it wants, but the wide range in my numbers kind of illustrates how sensitive these games with extreme efficiencies can be. I was looking at this one last night at 153/154, and should have just played it. But I waited and missed the good line.

FWIW, I ran my power ratings based model for the first this season for today's games and I get 107-66. The model isn't very sophisticated, however, and is just a tool that I use.

BOL with whatever you decide!

Power rating model looks pretty sharp.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Power rating model looks pretty sharp.

Haha. Blind squirrel and all that.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-1 night. I misjudged the pace of the Northeastern/Kent game, but Northeastern's efficiency was going to be a problem even if I had been right.

Thread: 44-40 (+3.79u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

For Tuesday:

8:00 UIC/Illinois St o144
I get 75+ possessions here. UIC isn't great offensively, but they should get to the FT line enough to give us close to 70.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 South Carolina/Clemson o136.5
I know there will be a lot of defense here, but I get a game played to 70+ possessions. At that pace I like at least one team to get to the 70s and for this one to creep over.