[Ralphie Halves]

You really think so? A mid-major 6 seed with Villanova and Duke, two teams people assume will just magically meet up in the Elite 8, in their region. SMU's as good a play as you can ask for in this region. I always though UVA +850 and SMU +500 were the best bets if you weren't going Villanova or Duke.

Yeah dude, really bad.

For starters, there hasn't been a 6 seed in the final 4 since 1992.

Here's how futures bets are set to begin with. Oddmakers get together and determine the actual chances of a team completing that bet. So in reality, let's say SMU was 20-1, which sounds more reasonable. Then they figure out what the worst possible number they can put on it, but still get action on it. In this case it was right around 7-1, and bettors took the bait. That extra 13-1 in equity goes right in to the book's pocket.

They got away with that number even more because SMU is hyped up big right now. And future bets are fun, and people like them.

Even if SMU does it, the books will profit off of the future bets on Duke, Nova, Baylor, UVA, etc and still come out ahead.

I wanna own an offshore book that just does futures soooo bad.

[RobbieStacks]

If SMU was at 20/1, it'd be an awful bet, but at 5/1 or 13/2, it's an amazing bet because it means there's a very good chance it'll be the first time since 1992 that a 6 seed makes the Final Four. I feel decently confident in SMU despite their only going 7 deep because of the public's overconfidence in Villanova and Duke, two very flawed teams, neither of which is favored to reach the Final Four.

[Ralphie Halves]

If SMU was at 20/1, it'd be an awful bet, but at 5/1 or 13/2, it's an amazing bet because it means there's a very good chance it'll be the first time since 1992 that a 6 seed makes the Final Four. I feel decently confident in SMU despite their only going 7 deep because of the public's overconfidence in Villanova and Duke, two very flawed teams, neither of which is favored to reach the Final Four.

I had to read this twice just to make sure it was real.

[RobbieStacks]

​You're gonna look so silly when SMU gets to the Final Four lol

[Ralphie Halves]

​You're gonna look so silly when SMU gets to the Final Four lol

Win or lose, I've learned a lot.

1) Sharps always play super -EV bets like futures.

2) A 5-1 bet is better than a 20-1 bet, because it's more legit, and the public knows what's up.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Had one loss in my two cash brackets (1st place 3300) going into this one....had SMU into elite 8 and final 4....talk about the kiss of death

[BIGDAY]

SMU pretenders. Easy to see.

[ManOfValue]

DOWN Goes Frazier!!! Sorry guys.

[chargers4222]

Had one loss in my two cash brackets (1st place 3300) going into this one....had SMU into elite 8 and final 4....talk about the kiss of death

Wow, one loss halfway through round 1...man you were so close bro...

[chargers4222]

Robbie who do you like for tonight's games brother?

[chargers4222]

Total rig job for anyone who had SMU to Win East Region +750 (1x) ...refs were bought and paid for babe. This was a sharp play brother, you got robbed babe. We all know you were on the right side here Wizzle.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Wow, one loss halfway through round 1...man you were so close bro...

was making a point jerkoff that I had the team going deep......

fukin broke dick non pro's commenting as usual....carry on Mr. Smacked ass

[RobbieStacks]

I was just saying it was worth a shot given the 5/1 odds. SMU probably would have been barely favored over Baylor, and maybe a 3 point dog to Duke, so you had your shots if they could escape something like this.


Anyway, no basketball fan in his right mind would lay down $$$ on them because a mid-major that only goes 6 deep and doesn't have big man hammers, doesn't even have that speed 5'11" or 6' jitterbug guard either isn't going to make the Final Four. What team in history that looks like this one and plays in a crap conference has made the Final Four? It's never happened. Like I said earlier in the week, they're a 6 seed for a reason with that record. HOWEVER, all I was saying as to 5/1 being a good play is that everything I just said is common sense, so you take a shot at them at 5/1 to do the illogical, as often happens in sports, and if they get by that one game that goes down to the wire, maybe they get that far. Every team is going to have a game where one moment decides whether it advances or busts. There aren't any '96 Kentucky or '09 UNC teams in this field.

[RobbieStacks]

Robbie who do you like for tonight's games brother?

I like Wichita, but you have to ship them on the ML. Not sure if they win by blowout or if they win by 6 and don't cover, but they'll win. SMU was the -260ish upset, Wichita, by contrast, will hold.


Kent State +18.5 is probably something I like the most though. All the other 14 seeds got blown out IIRC, and the public is really high on a UCLA team that certainly won't come out of the South Region.

[jjgold]

USC played tougher schedule

I think that made slight difference

[USCPHILLYGUY]

good write up Robbie....nice to see someone with some actual knowledge of the game comment

[da_hustla]

Kansas State plus the points tonight fellas

[Ralphie Halves]

To the tune of Bruno Mars....

"I wanna own a futures book, sooooo freakin baaad."

Because there are no shortages of people that think 7-1 on a 6 seed to make it to the Final Four is a good bet. All day.

[sweethook]

tuff lost , ...busted

[cankid]

lots of chances tough loss

[RobbieStacks]

I like Wichita, but you have to ship them on the ML. Not sure if they win by blowout or if they win by 6 and don't cover, but they'll win. SMU was the -260ish upset, Wichita, by contrast, will hold.
Kent State +18.5 is probably something I like the most though. All the other 14 seeds got blown out IIRC, and the public is really high on a UCLA team that certainly won't come out of the South Region.

Wow, called it right on the spot. Wichita wins by exactly 6, so ML is the play, and Kent State's in a smooth position to cover. Also over 91 UCLA, under 86.5 UK.