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Conference Tournament Discussion
I don't see any odds or futures posted for the conference tourneys. Any upsets you guys see? Or is it all chalk?
I havent looked much at the brackets and matchups but I see chalk in the Big 12 and Big East with Kansas and Nova winning. Pac-12 will be a toss up between the big three teams. Purdue should win the Big 10 but never count on them. AAC has two really good teams, either SMU or Cinci will take that. ACC is pretty wide open, probably the most talented and most up for grabs.
There will probably be some upsets, like usual, but I don't see any teams winning 4 days straight to win one of the major conference tournaments. I think the championship games will be the top seeds especially in Pac 12 where most teams are not very good and can't win more than 1 game even if they were to knock off one of the top teams.
I agree Cinci or SMU in the AAC but I give SMU the slight edge. They have the best player in the conference.
Yeah of the major conferences, I don't see a team who wouldn't be an at large bid winning their tourney this year.
I really like both those teams to make some noise in the NCAA tournament. I'm really high on SMU, I think they're a legit contender, and wouldn't want to face them in the second round. Only problem with them is depth.Originally Posted by gummo
this
I think if it does happen you would most likely see it happen in the Big 10. That conference is pretty even across the board. There is zero dominant teams, just several good teams, so it wouldn't shock me to see a 5-8 seed win the tournament.
I will probably take Louisville to win the ACC. Right now they look like the best team in that conference. Yes I know UNC is probably a little ahead of them talent wise but I just don't trust them. The Cards play great defense and don't seem to ever real beat themselves.
These are all that I like. Most just a unit with Florida maybe 3 or 4 units.
ACC
I really like FSU +800. Threw a unit it on it. They actually have a great draw sitting in the 2 seed. I think they will meet Virginia in the semifinals. Louisville has a tough run most likely meeting Duke then UNC just to get to the title game. Now FSU isn't just going to walk to the finals. I think they definitely present some major matchup problems for UVA if they play them. I'm seeing Louisville +330 on 5dimes.
Big 10
Two teams worth looking at are Michigan +950 and Indiana +1700. Both have the potential to make a run in that tournament that is really wide open.
Michigan is getting hot at the right time. They would get Purdue in Day 3 if they can beat Illinois who is deflated after the loss at Rutgers. I don't think Minnesota scares a lot of those teams on a neutral court. Wisconsin found their shooting on Sunday for the first time in around a month so if Indiana can get by Iowa(which should be a good game) they will have to play one of their best games of the year.
SEC
Florida +170 (This might garner 3 or 4 units)
Kentucky can't afford to get down like they have the past two games like they did against Vandy and AM and think they can continue to come back. I don't like Vandy/Am winner for Florida immediately, I believe that will be a tougher match for them than Arkansas. That Vandy loss will be on their mind and they will want revenge for that game if they get Vandy again. Florida has the talent and by winning the SEC this would possibly push them into a 2 seed.
I'm off starting Wed-Sun going to be a lot of fun.
Good luck to everyone whatever you play
I kinda agree with t-wizzle...I like Lou in ACC tourney and either Mich or Ind as a darkhorse to win conf tourneys...worth a shot
Big 10 does seem the one most likely for a surprise. I could see someone stealing a bid from the a10 if we are talking second tier leagues
nevada can win
conference usa is at uab, but dont think uab goes far
Texas San-Antonio is peaking and covering
Marshall is a getting to much respect from books fade
Akron will probably win conference
Will Gonzaga tank to get a bubble team in? Any other teams with a seed locked up that would take a dive for the sake of the conference?
May sprinkle a little on Mich St., Marquette, and OK St.
FSU is good value. They are on the easy side of the draw. The other side is loaded to get to the Championship game. Not worth it to bet UNC, or L'Ville, IMO. I don't see anything I really like. Maybe take a shot on some long shot. Arkansas in the SEC, who knows.
As a Pac-12 fan I think Oregon will win the Pac-10 tourney, it'll be the Brooks show. As a Zona fan I'm actually kind of hoping they get an early exit and a #3 seed out West. With all those frosh on the roster I feel it's essential they're out West.
All of the other conferences are stupid, so who cares.
No money for futures
Betting day to day
i think the big 10 has the most value of taking a big dog.. wouldnt shock me to see a mich st, mich, iowa take it down
Anyone see line on Uconn to win AAC tourney? They will be playing at home for their tournament bid, could be value.
Maryland at 10/1 is very surprising to me. They got a double bye, playing basically in their home town, and have to beat northwestern/Ohio state, then wisconsin to make the championship game. Pretty decent path.
Heritage has uconn at +1600.. after watching them yesterday its tough to lay anything on them..
Im a MD fan, though to put anything on them too just cause of how bad they finished the season
Dom, have not seen a line, and normally I would say UConn is great value at home in this tourney but I just don't see it this year. They just have no depth and go cold for too long at times and Jalen and purvis can play but they're not like guards in the past who could go and get a couple buckets when things go cold. Just too many mental lapses and I don't trust the veterans like I have on previous squads. I really think SMU and Cincinnati are in a another class compared to the rest of that league. Would be very surprised to see any other matchup in the final.
That said, I'll be in attendance rooting for some husky magic.
Take the number one seed in each conference and you should be over .500 plus you are getting plus odds on all of them.
Agreed on Michigan. The Big 10 is a a bunch of mediocre and bad teams other than Purdue who can lose on any night.
Florida St is probably the most talented team in the ACC (possibly most talented team in the nation), at +800 I think they're worth a shot. Only problem is they're poorly coached.
If Nova does slip up, I like Marquette at +950. They're hitting their stride at the right time.
Arizona at +370 has good value. They're very tournament tested and are well coached. UCLA and Oregon may be better teams, but best value is with Zona based on the number.
Where are you seeing odds KRIT?
Heritage
I'm thinking:
Oregon 1.5/1 - best team in PAC and Zona-UCLA have to play each other before finals.
Maryland 10/1 - double bye in hometown with easy road to finals.
Florida State 8/1 & Notre Dame 10/1 - one of these teams should emerge from their side of the bracket to make it to the finals to play UNC/Duke/Louisville most likely. I'm assuming the ACC bracket is fixed, as opposed to reorganizing each round based on seeding - correct?
two thoughts
1. lots of florida state love -- this team lost to some bad teams on the road, a few of them in ugly fashion
of course the argument for them is being on the easier side of the bracket
2. I may be in the minority but I would prefer less teams in these tournaments. Maybe even the top 2 teams playing for bids in some of these shit conferences or 2 rounds like the Ivy league is doing. Absolute max teams of 12 for any conference.
GT housed FSU and they blow
FSU has talent. What'd they lose 6 or 7 games all year? I don't get why people are acting like they were terribly inconsistent.
I dont see anyone acting like that, most seem to love them. Just feel like there are better bets if you must do it for that conference.
backing northwestern
They've already moved from +800 to +515 on 5dimes. I only played a unit on them at +800.
Louisville shot up to +540 on 5dimes wizzle. Now might be the perfect time to drop some cash on them.
Vandy was a steal yesterday at +3300 down to +2000 today.
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