First of all, eliminate any games where a team with a bad record is playing a team with a good record. Reason: the team with the good record usually won't prepare hard for the game or play hard. But you can't afford to blindly take the underdog either. Avoid the game.
Next, once you have two mostly evenly matched teams, look at the last time they played each other during the current year. If the previous game was won by 7 or more points, eliminate the matchup for betting. Reason: the team that won by 7 or more points usually won't prepare hard for the second matchup because they will be over cocky.
Next, once you have filtered out the above two factors, look at injuries. If a player is missing from either line-up who scores more than 6 points per game, eliminate the matchup for betting. (unless the other team is also missing a key player)
Now you have taken 100 games and filtered it down to about 30 or so. Pick two teams who are the most evenly motivated to win, and handicap that game.
If you use the above system, you will rarely get shocked by an outcome. Earlier this year I neglected the above system and I lost money when Oregon lost on the road at Colorado.
Good luck
Last edited by Machine Choice; 02-18-17 at 10:08 AM.