[QuantumLeap]

Last night I posted how the entire world was on undefeated USC. It was the last game of the night so it had heavier than usual action. So I held my nose and bet on Cornell who had an abysmal record and Cornell was in the game until the last few minutes and covered.

Tonight it's unbeaten Creighton who have an 11-0 record against 6-5 ASU. Last night I mentioned how USC had a tough time against Troy 2 nights before that game. Creighton had a tough time with Oral Roberts on the 17th beating them by only 1 point to keep their record perfect.

The books aren't in the business of giving money away so ASU +9 (Bovada) it is!

[Conqueror]

You're right, bro.

[QuantumLeap]

You're right, bro.

Let's get this.

While we're talking about Arizona teams, I'm going with New Mexico +11.5 over Arizona.

[readytowinem]

Be careful on AZ this team is legit. Really coming together imo...

[Louisvillekid1]

I love Sean Miller but he is failing so far imo @ zona

[readytowinem]

I love Sean Miller but he is failing so far imo @ zona

I feel you...but the talent is there. And from what I've been seeing they have had flashes of brilliance...

[blocksnbooze]

Sometimes the public is right...have you even seen this az state team play?? No way they can stop Creighton's offense

[QuantumLeap]

Sometimes the public is right...have you even seen this az state team play?? No way they can stop Creighton's offense

You're right. I even asked myself that last night when taking Cornell against unbeaten USC. Sometimes the public wins these games have a lot of the public on them.

I might make a play on Cal Poly against Washington. That would be one I would think the public might be on the right side.

[MalikHusam]

nice guess

[HeeluvaGuy]

What exactly do you mean by "public" in this context? Are you just referring to the percentage of bets on one side?

[QuantumLeap]

What exactly do you mean by "public" in this context? Are you just referring to the percentage of bets on one side?

Yes.

[QuantumLeap]

You're right. I even asked myself that last night when taking Cornell against unbeaten USC. Sometimes the public wins these games have a lot of the public on them.

I might make a play on Cal Poly against Washington. That would be one I would think the public might be on the right side.

Going with:

Cal Poly SLO +15 over Washington

Same reasoning.

[QuantumLeap]

Last night I posted how the entire world was on undefeated USC. It was the last game of the night so it had heavier than usual action. So I held my nose and bet on Cornell who had an abysmal record and Cornell was in the game until the last few minutes and covered.

Tonight it's unbeaten Creighton who have an 11-0 record against 6-5 ASU. Last night I mentioned how USC had a tough time against Troy 2 nights before that game. Creighton had a tough time with Oral Roberts on the 17th beating them by only 1 point to keep their record perfect.

The books aren't in the business of giving money away so ASU +9 (Bovada) it is!

ASU missed a basket at the end that would have been a push. So close.

[QuantumLeap]

Going with:

Cal Poly SLO +15 over Washington

Same reasoning.

37-36 Cal Poly at the half. So far, so good. I hope they hold on!

[QuantumLeap]

37-36 Cal Poly at the half. So far, so good. I hope they hold on!

Cal Poly falls apart and loses by 16, missing the cover by 1.

[readytowinem]

I think the idea was right on the wash game but the line was off. Wash been getting a lot of heat and lost some games they shouldn't of. The line should of been higher imo.

Anyway...you will get it back soon. Best of luck...

[johnnyvegas13]

they will get rocked next gm vs ucla

[HeeluvaGuy]

I think the flaw in this approach might be the assumption that there is ever a "public" side in these types of games on Monday/Tuesday nights in December. College basketball is not like football where 95% of the games are on one day. Instead, it's more like baseball on steroids where there are 300 or so games per week with multiple games on every day. I would be very surprised if games like Creighton/ASU, Cornell/USC, or Cal Poly/UW generate enough action to bury one side or the other.

But thats just my $.02. I wish you nothing but the best.

[QuantumLeap]

I think the idea was right on the wash game but the line was off. Wash been getting a lot of heat and lost some games they shouldn't of. The line should of been higher imo.

Anyway...you will get it back soon. Best of luck...

Thanks. I'm looking to take Louisville tonight against Kentucky.

[QuantumLeap]

they will get rocked next gm vs ucla

I think you're right. I can't wait to see what the line will be. Thanks for the input.

[QuantumLeap]

I think the flaw in this approach might be the assumption that there is ever a "public" side in these types of games on Monday/Tuesday nights in December. College basketball is not like football where 95% of the games are on one day. Instead, it's more like baseball on steroids where there are 300 or so games per week with multiple games on every day. I would be very surprised if games like Creighton/ASU, Cornell/USC, or Cal Poly/UW generate enough action to bury one side or the other.

But thats just my $.02. I wish you nothing but the best.

Believe me, I've thought of this as well and you could very well be right. I think part of the situation is that I notice the games like Cornell/USC and attribute the pick to go against the public perception and I think "the system" is working. At least ASU and Cal Poly made it close which further reinforces my thought that this might be right. I also like to keep in mind that the books aren't always right and like was mentioned before, sometimes the public wins even in games where they bet a large percentage on one side.

I have to think there are plenty of degenerates trying to win their money back on these last games of the evening but I don't know the volume for sure.

[MalikHusam]

public perception is so 1990s

[QuantumLeap]

I think the flaw in this approach might be the assumption that there is ever a "public" side in these types of games on Monday/Tuesday nights in December. College basketball is not like football where 95% of the games are on one day. Instead, it's more like baseball on steroids where there are 300 or so games per week with multiple games on every day. I would be very surprised if games like Creighton/ASU, Cornell/USC, or Cal Poly/UW generate enough action to bury one side or the other.

But thats just my $.02. I wish you nothing but the best.

One game that had "public" written all over it was Kentucky/Louisville. I was thinking about taking Louisville since so many were on Kentucky and this was a major game. The thing that threw me off was that the line went from KY +1 to KY -1 1/2 so I thought there was a chance KY would be the right side and the books were trying to get more money on Louisville.

Louisville ended up winning by 3.

UNC was another big favorite against Northern Iowa. I was tired of having the big favorite pull away so I took UNI +11 for the 1st half and it covered. All of these games mentioned covered the 1st half including one earlier today that wasn't mentioned, Cal Santa Barbara. Maybe the 1st half is the way to go.

[QuantumLeap]

Both large public favorites in the 2 late games fail to cover the 1st half. So we have the following large public favorites failing to cover the 1st half (I'm excluding non-major college games here):

Monday
USC (vs. Cornell)

Tuesday
Creighton (vs. ASU)
Washington (vs. Cal Poly SLO)

Wednesday
UNC (vs. Northern Iowa)
UCLA (vs. W. Mich.)
Kent St. (vs. Oregon St.)

I'll start a new thread with this topic on Thursday.

[QuantumLeap]

Sorry, I just had to add this in here. Oregon State was the perfect storm of a pick and I missed it. I was analyzing why Kent State was such a large favorite and it was obvious that it was because of their record vs. OSU's record. But then I thought maybe OSU will walk away with this because it's Pac 12 vs. a Mac team and certainly OSU is a much better team.

Then I decided to go on to looking at other games and promptly forgot about this match-up. Mental note, any time you get a team from a lesser conference with a much better record playing a team from a better conference, take note. I've seen this with SEC football teams with bad records playing lesser conference teams with good records and running away with the game.

[MalikHusam]

don't overanalyze
a winnig capper posted a big pick on kent state so it went -120 to -160

[QuantumLeap]

don't overanalyze
a winnig capper posted a big pick on kent state so it went -120 to -160

You are so right Malik. In fact, I'm going to post in today's thread (title: Towson) where I have been over thinking these bets. I'm going to post the record of the bets this week for the full game instead of these 1st half picks and we'll see how close they've been.

Thanks for the input.