[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks for everybody's comments. One reason college basketball has always appealed to me is that there are so many games almost every night that the line makers can't possible be correct on every single one and therefore the handicappers advantage. When you get to this time of the year there are fewer games and the line makers have had 5 days to "massage" the lines so our advantage is lessened.

As far as posting in general..... I think I can speak for most, if not all, of the quality handicappers that post plays, posting plays can be stressful if for no other reason than it's hard enough to loose your own money, but you also know others who have followed also lost. To further add to the stress, some may not be practicing good money management and even a short losing streak can be devastating to them.

Finally, baseball is right around the corner and this is a good time for me to "clear my head" a little, before we have daily games to handicap.

DD

While I agree in very large part with your first paragraph, I will make the observation that there is so a lot money bet on the NCAA tournament that is really, really dumb money. Just stand in line at a Vegas sportsbook during the first Thursday or Friday morning and you'll hear some of the craziest theories, not to mention the fans just betting on their teams. That kind of behavior creates opportunities in certain games.

But, yeah, 300 games per week certainly lends itself to a few soft lines more than the NCAAT does.

[doubledime]

Points Awarded:

SlickRick1382 gave doubledime 2 Betpoint(s) for this post. PokeyAristocrat gave doubledime 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

Thanks Slick and Pokey

[doubledime]

While I agree in very large part with your first paragraph, I will make the observation that there is so a lot money bet on the NCAA tournament that is really, really dumb money. Just stand in line at a Vegas sportsbook during the first Thursday or Friday morning and you'll hear some of the craziest theories, not to mention the fans just betting on their teams. That kind of behavior creates opportunities in certain games.

But, yeah, 300 games per week certainly lends itself to a few soft lines more than the NCAAT does.

[doubledime]

Points Awarded:

MinisterEric gave doubledime 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

Thank you Eric

[doubledime]

Good morning,

One Play for Sunday:

SC/Duke over 143

Good luck

[playr101]

Tailing
..let's get it DD

[Fred The Hammer]

I like UCLAs team total Over 78.5 (and -3.5). UC is a solid defensive team but they haven't seen anything like UCLA! I'm 6-0 on Overs in the tournament but NC/Ark Over 163 might get dicey? NC will have to get 95 of it I'm afraid?

[doubledime]

I like UCLAs team total Over 78.5 (and -3.5). UC is a solid defensive team but they haven't seen anything like UCLA! I'm 6-0 on Overs in the tournament but NC/Ark Over 163 might get dicey? NC will have to get 95 of it I'm afraid?

I just think Cinnci will try to slow the whole game down a bit giving UCLA less possessions, unless they fall too far behind. Good luck if you play it.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Wow! What a second half!!!! Never in doubt

Yesterday 1-0

YTD Postseason: 3-1

Good luck

[playr101]

Good stuff DD

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good morning,

Wow! What a second half!!!! Never in doubt

Yesterday 1-0

YTD Postseason: 3-1

Good luck

I played the second half over in this one last night. I have had some good success lately with these. Basically, I look for games where the first half is under because of poor shooting (not pace of play). For example, they had 34 possessions at the half and only 53 points largely because USC shot 20% in the first half. There were a lot of FTs also. The second half over was about 2 points less than the implied line should have been based on the game total, so there was value. That one was over with about 5 mins to play. Something to think about for next year.

[doubledime]

I played the second half over in this one last night. I have had some good success lately with these. Basically, I look for games where the first half is under because of poor shooting (not pace of play). For example, they had 34 possessions at the half and only 53 points largely because USC shot 20% in the first half. There were a lot of FTs also. The second half over was about 2 points less than the implied line should have been based on the game total, so there was value. That one was over with about 5 mins to play. Something to think about for next year.

That was nicely played. Great way to handicap a second half over. Have you tracked the opposite, that is, play the under if there was a great shooting in the first half?

DD

[doubledime]

Good stuff DD

Thanks playr

[HeeluvaGuy]

That was nicely played. Great way to handicap a second half over. Have you tracked the opposite, that is, play the under if there was a great shooting in the first half?

DD

I have only played one 2h under based on this approach and it won. Honestly, I rarely look for those opportunities, however.

[doubledime]

I have only played one 2h under based on this approach and it won. Honestly, I rarely look for those opportunities, however.

In your opinion, what is the best site to find the first half stats, (possessions, shooting %, etc.) during the game?

[HeeluvaGuy]

In your opinion, what is the best site to find the first half stats, (possessions, shooting %, etc.) during the game?

I'm not aware of any site that provides live stats on possessions. The best I can do is a rough calculation. I use the "Team Stats" section of the espn app. Here's the formula for estimating possessions:

FGA+(FTA*.475)+Turnovers-Offensive rebounds

As a practical matter, I usually just take the number of FTA, divide by 2, and subtract one. Close enough when working on the fly.

[Capybara]

I was on that over last night too. Still can't believe how far it flew over when it was so far behind the pace at halftime! Nuts!

Nice postseason start, Double D... anything coming for tonight perhaps?

[Mike Huntertz]

Missed it, Dang!
Nice

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Nothing in the NIT tonight

Good luck

[doubledime]

I was on that over last night too. Still can't believe how far it flew over when it was so far behind the pace at halftime! Nuts!

Nice postseason start, Double D... anything coming for tonight perhaps?

Thanks Capy. Yes it was hard to believe the difference in the two halves.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Short card......No Plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Passing again

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Almost posted Purdue/Kansas over but found some reasons to lay off.

No Plays Tonight

Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Yeah, I'm close on Mich/Oregon under, Purdue/Kansas over, and Xavier/Arizona over. Might land on the last one. Staying away from unders for a while.

[doubledime]

Yeah, I'm close on Mich/Oregon under, Purdue/Kansas over, and Xavier/Arizona over. Might land on the last one. Staying away from unders for a while.

That's why I morphed into playing the first half when I play an under. Does not always work the way I want, but at least I won't be stung by an OT. I may be overthinking why I should lay off the Purdue/Kansas over, especially now that I see it's on your radar screen.

[Mike Huntertz]

I'm gonna try Kansas over 155
GL

[HeeluvaGuy]

That's why I morphed into playing the first half when I play an under. Does not always work the way I want, but at least I won't be stung by an OT. I may be overthinking why I should lay off the Purdue/Kansas over, especially now that I see it's on your radar screen.

I think it's a good play, but I am going to wait to see how it plays out in the first half. I would really like it at 153ish, but that's not going to happen. FWIW, it looks like a 72/3 possession game (though more are possible). At that pace both offenses are perfectly capable of scoring enough. The problem for me is that the defenses are also capable of shutting that down.

[doubledime]

I think it's a good play, but I am going to wait to see how it plays out in the first half. I would really like it at 153ish, but that's not going to happen. FWIW, it looks like a 72/3 possession game (though more are possible). At that pace both offenses are perfectly capable of scoring enough. The problem for me is that the defenses are also capable of shutting that down.

I decided to play it too, not as a posted play, but just play it personally. I like your strategy on the second half, but I'm heading out to dinner so I am playing the whole game since I don't like placing anything at the dinner table, especially after a few drinks.

[Mike Huntertz]

I'm gonna try Kansas over 155
GL

Bingo! Thanxs for your input.

[Fuux]

Yo DD,

Do you continue your MLB thread from last year or do you make new one when the season starts?

Also what date is the opening of the season?

Keep up the good work !

[doubledime]

Yo DD,

Do you continue your MLB thread from last year or do you make new one when the season starts?

Also what date is the opening of the season?

Keep up the good work !

Thanks Fuux. It will be a new thread and will start about a week after the season begins.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Sorry for the late post but we are passing tonight.

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Just can't find any value in the totals today.....Passing

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Sorry for sounding like a broken record (for those old enough to remember records)

Passing today

Good luck

[AceofSP2107]

DD if you had to post a play out the 2 what would be the best bet .. thanks