1. #1
    sweetjones55
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    My college basketball game of the year

    WF Demon Deacons -6 -120 LOCKED

    I am going to start this off by saying that there are very few people around that know as much about this UM basketball team as I do. I don't mean to brag but I have watched 95% of their games the last 6 years and know this team inside and out. I have season tickets behind the bench and attend almost every game. I am friends with a bunch of players on this team and know our tendencies, strengths and weaknesses team-wise and for every individual player.

    There is a reason UM is getting blown out so bad on the road every game. Our team is young and we don't have a go to guy to carry the scoring load on the road. Everyone on the team is just kinda looking around at each other and no has taken the reigns, its like as if they are still looking for Jack McClinton in the rafters or something. Our best player is a PF Dwayne Collins and he is easily stopped by just a soft double team and he constantly turns the ball over on the double teams. He is a terrible foul shooter and can easily be shut down. UM literally sat him down the last 5 minutes of the VT game because he kept on turning the ball over on double teams, this is our star and potential 1st round NBA pick and we had to sit him in the most crucial part of the game. Our guards are probably some of the most wreckless guards in the nation and it shows more so on the road than anywhere. They just get nervous and turn the ball over far too much because of their inability to handle the ball well. Last game we almost blew a 19pt lead when VT started applying full court pressure and constant double teams in the halfcourt, this has been our kryptonite for the longest time since we never have good PG's and WF will definitely take a page out of VT's book and apply this also. There is nothing UM can do to counter this, our guards just have zero ball handling skills. UM relies on it's 3 point shooting and I don't see them knocking down a high percentage on the road in WF.

    WF also has some serious revenge in this game. Miami beat WF this year by 1 and smashed WF last year by 27. WF is still a nice 2-1 ATS in this time frame. WF lost their last game to GT and really needs this next one if they want any chance in the ACC.

  2. #2
    sweetjones55
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    I honestly can care less about line movement on this game as their is RLM. The line changing doesn't change the fact this is a huge mismatch.

  3. #3
    HoulihansTX
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    I bet on your team at +7.5

    But your write up is much appreciated, and sounds on point.

    Hope we middle it.

  4. #4
    sweetjones55
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    I bet on your team at +7.5

    But your write up is much appreciated, and sounds on point.

    Hope we middle it.
    Why'd you take Miami?

  5. #5
    2daBank
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    nice write-up...gl

  6. #6
    GoldRush7
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    Nice write up, good luck

  7. #7
    HoulihansTX
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    I like the number, RLM, and given UM's road struggles I think the books have adjusted the lines.

    I like your breakdown of the match-ups, and they are duely noted. Although I dont bet with the physical match-ups on my mind, rather I bet the number/value.


    Thanks for the time spent, and info shared in your thorough write-up

  8. #8
    Busterflywheel
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    Must say nice write up SweetJones keep em coming!

  9. #9
    DolphinSpurs
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    I agree with OP. ACC road teams have been terrible and Canes are not that good to begin with.

  10. #10
    3PtShooter
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    this post got my attention thanks

  11. #11
    floridagolfer
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post

    Since league play has started WF hasn't covered a home spread of more than -3. (5 game span)

    Didn't WF beat Virginia by 12 about a week and a half ago?

  12. #12
    HoulihansTX
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    Quote Originally Posted by floridagolfer View Post
    Didn't WF beat Virginia by 12 about a week and a half ago?
    You are right.

  13. #13
    sweetjones55
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    All you guys are welcome, I am not one of those guys that post a play of the year every week or anything. I actually have never posted a play of the year on any sport but I think I got a good grip on this UM team. GL to everyone tonight.

  14. #14
    HoulihansTX
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweetjones55 View Post
    All you guys are welcome, I am not one if those guys that post a play of the year every week or anything. I actually have never posted a play of the year on any sport but I think I got a good grip on this UM team. GL to everyone tonight.
    And to you.

  15. #15
    sweetjones55
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    I forgot to mention that Frank Haith is by far the worst in game coach in the ACC. He rarely makes adjustments at half and his substitutions are awful. Watch him take all the confidence away from his players by taking them out as soon as they make one small mistake.

  16. #16
    bobby heenan
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    thanks for the insight on the canes....i had them on the moneyline in that bc game...and that was a disaster...and i played them sunday against va tech...and they tried to do it again....

    as much as this tells us about how bad the canes are...i really feel like wake is a team that might be starting to gel and could be ranked soon...and maybe make a little noise in the tourney....they have some veteran players in smith, williams, and mcfarland....and aminu can dominate and take over...if some of their young wing guys can step it up...this is a dangerous team.....they were really hanging with duke at cameron until that flagrant foul call.....i think this team could be a tough out if they get into the tourney

  17. #17
    LTCOL27
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    Fellas, I live in NC right outside of Winston Salem, and follow Wake and all of the other ACC teams closely with local coverage, etc. Wake is fired up after getting embarassed at GA Tech last Thursday. There is a lot of pride in their program, and they are looking to bounce back with a statement game in front of the home crowd tonight. This is a good spot for them, and I feel a double digit win tonight is very likely (kind of like Louisville last night against UConn, who also struggled on the road this year just like Miami.)

    I am on this one with you sweetjones. Thanks for the solid write-up, and good luck.

  18. #18
    ron8698
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    thanks for the write up sweetjones55 and others feedback , I`m in on this one WF Demon Deacons , it moved up 1/2 pt ,,-6.5 ,

  19. #19
    Busterflywheel
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    Nice Avatar Ron8698

  20. #20
    sweetjones55
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    I appreciate the WF information guys, I hadn't finished my writeup but I was going to talk a little bit about your team but I think bobby summed it up well. When a team is more experienced, has better talent, home court, and revenge it usually sums up bad news for the opposing team. I love my Hurricanes more than anyone as a UM alumn but not tonight.

  21. #21
    sweetjones55
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    You are already seeing the halfcourt traps by WF as I predicted they would apply.

  22. #22
    sweetjones55
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    The press will come in the second half.

  23. #23
    sweetjones55
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    3 turnovers for UM in 4 minutes.

  24. #24
    Masu485
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    this sucks, i should have seen this earlier. this is the kind of inside info i've been looking for. and stupid me went and took Miami +8 (-165). i'm gonna lose a ton on this blunder.

  25. #25
    sweetjones55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Masu485 View Post
    this sucks, i should have seen this earlier. this is the kind of inside info i've been looking for. and stupid me went and took Miami +8 (-165). i'm gonna lose a ton on this blunder.
    Nahh you're good (please no jynxing on my GOTY, come on).

  26. #26
    Masu485
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    2-12 from the field for miami, this sucks dick. im going to go watch jeopardy

  27. #27
    Masu485
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweetjones55 View Post
    Nahh you're good (please no jynxing on my GOTY, come on).
    haha dont worry, jinxes dont exist. hopefully we middle.

  28. #28
    sweetjones55
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    Another halfcourt double team on Collins and he doesn't know what to do, turns the ball over.

  29. #29
    sweetjones55
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    10 turnovers on UM, this is without the fullcourt press. UM shooting 2-14, one FG was a lucky wide open 3 on a loose ball.

  30. #30
    HoulihansTX
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    Hey SweetJ.

    next time I disagree with you about your own team. Send my computer a virus.

  31. #31
    sweetjones55
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    Hey SweetJ.

    next time I disagree with you about your own team. Send my computer a virus.
    It's not over, I hit the 1H but the game is far from over. I do expect WF to start pressing and UM to start getting desperate in the 2H and jacking up a lot of 3's. WF shouldn't have this many turnovers, their guards are very good with the ball. We will see what happens.

  32. #32
    sweetjones55
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    This is ridiculous, WF up by 20 in the 1H now only up 5. Game is going EXACTLY as I expected with halfcourt double teams causing turnovers and Dwayne Collins getting shut down. UM shooting 33% Where is the press WF? Let's go Deacons!

  33. #33
    sweetjones55
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    My body is still shaking right now.

  34. #34
    sweetjones55
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    WINNER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  35. #35
    sweetjones55
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    MY FIRST GAME OF THE YEAR EVER FEELS SO GOOD especially since I F*CKING called this game and it played out EXACTLY as I said.

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