These are the plays that I have either locked in on or am strongly considering. Take a look and give me your opinions. I hope these mini write-ups help some of you out. GL to all (unless you are on the other side!)
1.Temple -1.5 @ Charlotte: Temple has been on fire of late (shooting 47% from the field, 44% from behind the arc, and 78% from the line) and Charlotte’s defense is par at best. On the other hand, Charlotte has been cold with miserable shooting percentages all around. Temple plays some of the best defense in the nation and I don’t see Charlotte scoring anymore than 60 in this game. Temple is 7-3 ATS on the road this season, while Charlotte is 1-4 ATS at home. The line for this game seems to be off which kind of scares me, but not enough to scare me off this game. Temple has top 15 talent and Charlotte is mediocre. My play locked in is Temple -1.5.
2.Wichita State -6.5 vs. Illinois St: Wichita State is almost unbeatable at home this year (12-0 thus far) and it is because of their defense. They have allowed a mere 57 ppg at home this year. Both teams have very good ATS resumes on the home/road splits, so I think this game will come down to who is the better team. Illinois State averages more turnovers than they force on the road, and if you mix that with Wichita’s lock down defense at home and the 17 turnovers they force per game, I see the recipe for a blow out. My play locked in is Wichita State -6.5.
3.Oklahoma St -5.5 vs. Texas A&M: Coming off a big win at Kansas St, the Cowboys may be primed for a let down at home, or they could ride that wave of emotion to a big win at home. Once again, throw trends out the window because both teams have pretty good resumes. A&M is dreadful on the road this season (especially in the last 5 games), but they have faced tough road competition this year. They are being outscored by 6 ppg on the road, shooting below 37% from the field, and under 29% from behind the arc. The big stat for me is rebounding. A&M has been outrebounded by 6 on the road this year. Oklahoma St has been great at home (specifically their defense), but against lesser competition. At first glance I liked Oklahoma State, but my play is undecided. Lean toward OK St at home, but not locked in quite yet. Still need to cap a bit more.
4.W. Mich +1.5 vs. Akron: When looking at this game, the home/road splits is what swayed me towards W. Mich. I realize W. Mich. has been beating up on the bottom of the conference, but to me this shows the signs of a good team. They beat the teams they should at home. Akron has been awful on the road, specifically their defense. They give up 11 ppg more on the road. Their lone road conference win on the road was @ Ohio. In this matchup, the home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings, and W. Mich is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home. I see a good home underdog against an underachieving road team and I’m all over the home dog. My play locked in is Western Michigan +1.5.
5.ND +10.5 @ Villanova: There is no question Villanova is one of the best teams in the nation (in my opinion the 2nd best behind Kansas), but I see Notre Dame in need of a season changing victory. The key to this game is whether or not Harangody gets some support. Nova has no one on the inside to match his strength down low. Nova is a quick, athletic, guard oriented team that pressures the ball on defense. Notre Dame has not been great on the road this season, but they have played tough competition. Nova has been dominant at home, but most of that has come against lesser competition. ND is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings head to head. Although ND’s defense has not been great on the road this season, they have taken care of the ball (averaging only 8 turnovers per game). If ND can limit turnovers and get points from Abromitis and Hansbrough they could not only cover but pull the upset. My play locked in is ND +10.5.
6.Duke -12.5 vs. FSU: Now, as most of you can tell from the name I am a Duke fan, but I am far from a homer. I rarely put money on Duke, but sometimes I just can’t resist. I really like the fact that the line is moving away from Duke. There is a reason the guys in Vegas always win and that is because they are damn good. Rarely do they miss by much. Duke at home is nearly unbeatable. I realize FSU has played Duke close in years past, but that was with Tony Douglas. FSU struggles to score from the perimeter, and they do not have a PG to break down Duke’s defense to get their inside players the great looks. FSU has struggled on the road this season too. They score 5 ppg less and give up 6 ppg more on the road. Another aspect is lack of maturity and leadership on FSU. They turn the ball over 16 per game on average and a lot of that is against lesser competition. FSU has one dominant scorer in Chris Singleton, but Singler or Lance Thomas can play him one on one and force others to beat them. My play is Duke -12.5 all day!
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Dukeblue Jan 27- Mini Write-Ups
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