I had UNCWilm plus points and to win the first half.
My sharper forecast has UNCWilm winning this game by 5 points. Unsophisticaed and even non predictive models give Duke, at best, a 7 point win this game.
I realize this game has already begun and don't normally give my forecasts during the game but if you built a forecast or prediction that gives Duke a larger than 10 point win, regardless of the result of the game, you might consider adjusting your numbers.
I rarely say something like this, realize there are many ways to handicap and some extreme numbers will come with even the sharpest forecasts, but if bettors have predicted Duke by double digits, I have indications that they are following bad metrics and should adjust the numbers.
Good Luck.