was curious about this and i just saw that espn insider has an article on it...
i think point spread plays by seeding makes a bunch of sense... some of these lesser seeds are pesky and play very unique styles (up-tempo, addicted to 3 pointers, defensive press) - all of which can given top seeds fits for the first half of the game.
of course, the uber-talented team either figures things out in time or their superior athleticism eventually rules the day.
anywhere easy with point spread records by seeding? i'm happy to share what i find.
the writers makes it very clear that he is cherry-picking time frames to show interesting ats results....
the ATS record will always be the lesser seed (i.e. the worse team). and if it says 8-4 it's L12 obviously
16th seed 8-4 ATS... but 2-6 before that ... this is symptomatic of sooo much stuff i come up with on my own. usually the sample size is larger but i find decent volume stuff that is 65% last 2 years but 41% the 2 years before that.
15th seeding nothing noteworthy.
14th seed......4-0 last year but even before that.
13th seed..... 3-1.. nothing mentioned before that.
12th seed ....... 18-9-1 .... excellend..
11th seed....... 16-11.....
10th seed....... 3-8 ................. so the 7th seed has been the pick.
9th seed....... 2-8.... again play the 8th seed.
two notes:
my theory is that people say "chattanooga has zero chance to beat kansas" (hypothetical matchup). and we all agree, but chattanooga can give kansas fits and i think even have lead at half-time. if necessary kansas with its 8 mcdonald's all-americans just picks up the pace in 2nd half and tires out chatanooga's 2 key players.
i think people are obviously on to underdogs in ncaa tourney but something like a 9th or 10th seed is often not even the worse team. so maybe that gets overdone. and you aren't even playing an "underdog" ...... on a 13th vs. 4th, the 4th seed is clearly the better team.
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point spread records by seeding?
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