Michigan State -5 over Purdue

I like to use this angle in important games. One of the important angles I use is recent performance.

Purdue just beat Michigan and Illinois easily and they are getting 5 points?
Michigan State struggled against Maryland and they are being asked to cover 5 points???

Now the consensus sites all seem to be on Michigan State so maybe this isn't a true indicator of TGTBT but I like to see the recent performance skew the line a bit.