[QuantumLeap]

My apologies to anyone who was expecting a pick in my Friday night TGTBT thread. I only post these for input and then if we find something we like I post the pick. I didn't want to force things because these TGTBT games don't seem to work with the small schools, because there's not enough money bet on them to trap (IMO).

I thought I would post some of the things I look for. Generally I look for 2 teams that are uneven in one area and look at the line to see if it's TGTBT for the team that has the better angle in that area. I then bet the other team because I think the linesmaker is setting a trap.

Things to look for:

1.) Good overall record vs. Bad overall record
If a team with a good record is playing a team with a bad record and the line looks too good for the good record team then consider betting on the bad record team.

2.) Good home record vs. Bad away record
If a team with a good home record is playing a team with a bad away record and the line looks too good for the good home record team then consider betting on the bad away record team.
Example: Utah beating USC in LA

3.) Good recent record vs. Bad recent record
I put a lot of emphasis on this. Use the same criteria as mentioned above. I put a lot more emphasis if the team has either won or lost a very public game. The Public will remember a big win and put too much importance on it as well as vice versa.

These are by no means the only criteria one should use.

Thanks to everyone who has contributed to this fun system. Now let's get the money!

[QuantumLeap]

Here are some of the schools I'll be looking at to POSSIBLY take. These are NOT picks:
Miss St, Arkansas, Fla St, Missouri, UCLA, Okla St

[Schweino]

Diehard Nole 4 life...sorta tempted myself. Due for a win, but man, can they really play like trash.

[QuantumLeap]

Diehard Nole 4 life...sorta tempted myself. Due for a win, but man, can they really play like trash.

Lost their last 5 in a row playing against a 19-8 team that has won 4 out of their last 5 and they're +2? Hmmm. More later.

[iloseagain]

Lost their last 5 in a row playing against a 19-8 team that has won 4 out of their last 5 and they're +2? Hmmm. More later.

Yea thats some shit.. ND has beaten UNC, Louisville, Clemson, Wake in 4 of their L5 games. And now they are -2 @ Fla St who just got embarrassed by duke. ND looks TGTBT!!!

Not to mention FSU has lost 5 games in a ROW!!!

Wow does ND look good in the public eye.

[TheTrumpCard]

You must remember that conferences will start rigging games to get their bubble teams W for March Madness.

FSU does look good the game is ESPN also

[iloseagain]

You must remember that conferences will start rigging games to get their bubble teams W for March Madness

is fla st a bubble team at 16-12??

[TheTrumpCard]

is fla st a bubble team at 16-12??

No FSU is out and ND is tournament lock. Texas Tech it seems has had a hand of God in their life lately wouldn't be surprised if they beat Kansas to lock a tournament bid

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[Birdman557]

FSU does match the system but can they be more pathetic...???

[iloseagain]

yea they are freakin awful

[iloseagain]

Georgia (14-12) -3.5 over Miss (18-10). Miss +3.5 looks a little easy..
UAB (23-5) at home -9.5 over W Kentucky (14-14).. UAB looks easy..
Miss St (12-14) home vs S Carolina (23-5) PK.. S Car looks easy..
N Illi (18-10) -6 home vs W Michigan (11-17).. N Illi looks easy..

All I can get to for now.. Got to get some work done. Let me know if anyone agrees with any of these

[iloseagain]

Also i really think Mia -3.5 is the play over lousville. Lou looks TGTBT to me. Reminds me of when Mia was -1.5 vs Virginia the last game.. I thought Vir would win but obviously not

[QuantumLeap]

Georgetown +1 -109 over Butler

G-town (14-14) is 2-7 in their last 9.
Butler (18-9) has won 4 out of their last 6.

[Birdman557]

I think GTown is a coinflip at best. Check this one out(2-0 with a push in this thread):

Ole Miss won last 2, Georgia lost last 3 plus have worse record yet they are favored by a whopping 3 points, play:

Georgia ML

[QuantumLeap]

Rhode Island +7 over Dayton

Dayton (22-5) is 8-2 in their last 10.
RI (15-13) is 3-5 in their last 8.

[Birdman557]

Rhode Island +7 over Dayton

Add first half also

[QuantumLeap]

Sorry about the late posts guys but I like to see if there is money coming in on any teams.

[QuantumLeap]

I think GTown is a coinflip at best. Check this one out(2-0 with a push in this thread):

Ole Miss won last 2, Georgia lost last 3 plus have worse record yet they are favored by a whopping 3 points, play:

Georgia ML

Looks like it might be a good play. I hope it hits for you.

[Birdman557]

Looks like it might be a good play. I hope it hits for you.

Thank you.

[Calgunner23]

Rhode Island +7 over Dayton

Dayton (22-5) is 8-2 in their last 10.
RI (15-13) is 3-5 in their last 8.

QL, you're a savage! I woke up to find RI up by 10. West coast, what can I say? Lol

I'll tail the next one. Best of luck brotha.

[Birdman557]

I think GTown is a coinflip at best. Check this one out(2-0 with a push in this thread):

Ole Miss won last 2, Georgia lost last 3 plus have worse record yet they are favored by a whopping 3 points, play:

Georgia ML

Too easy, 3-0 thread.

[iloseagain]

Georgia (14-12) -3.5 over Miss (18-10). Miss +3.5 looks a little easy..
UAB (23-5) at home -9.5 over W Kentucky (14-14).. UAB looks easy..
Miss St (12-14) home vs S Carolina (23-5) PK.. S Car looks easy..
N Illi (18-10) -6 home vs W Michigan (11-17).. N Illi looks easy..

All I can get to for now.. Got to get some work done. Let me know if anyone agrees with any of these

georgia and W Kentucky lookin good so far.. Btw you obviously play the opposite side of the side that looks easy

[iloseagain]

damn temple -11 looked TGTBT but for some reason i didnt post UCF +11.. UCF only down 2 late..

[Birdman557]

damn temple -11 looked TGTBT but for some reason i didnt post UCF +11.. UCF only down 2 late..

Yeah, I liked them also and didn't play

[iloseagain]

Georgia (14-12) -3.5 over Miss (18-10). Miss +3.5 looks a little easy..
UAB (23-5) at home -9.5 over W Kentucky (14-14).. UAB looks easy..
Miss St (12-14) home vs S Carolina (23-5) PK.. S Car looks easy..
N Illi (18-10) -6 home vs W Michigan (11-17).. N Illi looks easy..

All I can get to for now.. Got to get some work done. Let me know if anyone agrees with any of these

Georgia W
WKentucky W
Miss St - looks real good 23-9
WMichigan - 4:30

[LtDarsh]

you think Notre Dam beats FSU?

[iloseagain]

I think even tho ND looks TGTBT, they will win easy. I think this line is just off.

[iloseagain]

St Bon (19-7) -9.5 home vs UMass (12-15) looks easy.. UMass been playing well lately too. Umass +9.5 is the play
Middle Tenn (18-9) -3 home vs Marshall (15-13) looks easy. Marshall +3 is the play
S Illinois (21-9) -8.5 home vs Missouri St (12-17) looks easy. Missouri St +8.5 is the play
Hawaii (22-4) -14 home vs Northridge (10-18) looks easy. Northridge +14 is the play, especially with what happened last game that Hawaii played at home.



N Illinois is down to -4.5 now.. I highly suggest playing Western Michigan

[McDabs]

Oklahoma State +7?

[LtDarsh]

so take N illinois -4.5 or western michagan +4.5?

[iloseagain]

so take N illinois -4.5 or western michagan +4.5?

i said i highly suggest taking W Mich

I mean look at this game.. This right here is the DEFINITION of TGTBT:
Northern Illinois (18-10) at HOME vs W Mich (11-17) and they are ONLY -4.5.. W Mich is prob going to win this game.. However, no plays are guaranteed, so please dont make a huge wager and then blame me if they lose by 20.. All im saying is based on everything I see here, W Mich +4.5 is the play.

[QuantumLeap]

I think you guys talked me out of taking FSU. LOL!

I don't see anything I like for the 4pm Eastern games. There are a couple later games I like a lot. I'll try to post at least 15 minutes before gametime.

Recap so far today:

L - Georgtown (OT)
W - Rhode Island

[iloseagain]

Georgia (14-12) -3.5 over Miss (18-10). Miss +3.5 looks a little easy.. W
UAB (23-5) at home -9.5 over W Kentucky (14-14).. UAB looks easy.. W
Miss St (12-14) home vs S Carolina (23-5) PK.. S Car looks easy.. W
N Illi (18-10) -6 home vs W Michigan (11-17).. N Illi looks easy..

Also i really think Mia -3.5 is the play over lousville. Lou looks TGTBT to me. W

St Bon (19-7) -9.5 home vs UMass (12-15) looks easy.. UMass been playing well lately too. Umass +9.5 is the play
Middle Tenn (18-9) -3 home vs Marshall (15-13) looks easy. Marshall +3 is the play
S Illinois (21-9) -8.5 home vs Missouri St (12-17) looks easy. Missouri St +8.5 is the play
Hawaii (22-4) -14 home vs Northridge (10-18) looks easy. Northridge +14 is the play, especially with what happened last game that Hawaii played at home.

Not too shabby so far..

And my 2 leans i didnt post were:
UCF +11 W
Miami (OH) +2 - Mia is 10-18 and Kent St is 18-10. Only -2 spread.

[QuantumLeap]

UCLA -1 over Stanford

I haven't delved into using this factor much lately but I feel it's a valid one. It's a case where a team has a very public victory. That was the case when I picked Stanford to upset USC and they won 84-64. UCLA traveled to Cal on Thursday and lost 63-75. So why is Stanford get 1 point here at home after beating up on USC?

Take the Bruins.

[Birdman557]

UCLA -1 over Stanford

I haven't delved into using this factor much lately but I feel it's a valid one. It's a case where a team has a very public victory. That was the case when I picked Stanford to upset USC and they won 84-64. UCLA traveled to Cal on Thursday and lost 63-75. So why is Stanford get 1 point here at home after beating up on USC?

Take the Bruins.

Looking good, tailing